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If anyone is interested I am sure Nigel will be in to give his input on the game. X opened at -2' (about what I expected). UD has had several struggles again this season to the point that I thought their season would fall apart with a lack of effort and a fractured locker room only a few weeks ago. But as Nigel has pointed out this is a huge rivalry for both schools, but especially for the Flyers as Xavier wins atleast once a year in Cincy while this game is almost like UD's superbowl. Their is a feeling around the program and the city that the team still has a shot at the NCAA's and with the first four being played there, a possibility of a home ncaa game (how would the other coach like that?). I don't agree with those thoughts but with an RPI hovering around 50 before this game it isn't out the question if they run the table and get a victory over X or Temple in the A10 tourney which would put them at an RPI around 35 with 10 top 100 wins and they would be close. Those thoughts and the fact that they feel they outplayed X again and lost in Cincy should have the team ready to go. With inferior teams every year over the last 10 or so (X has had multiple NBA players on most of the teams, UD none) UD has managed win over half of them, a couple of them rather handily like last year where they started the game on a 17-3 run to shell shock an elite 8 team.
UD hasn't been settling for 3 pt shots as often in the last few games and if they continue to take it to the basket they can create foul trouble for X and that will be a huge problem for them. X is very thin and I think UD can create some matchup problems early that could get X in foul trouble. The last matchup between them started each half with Dayton having 7-8 fouls whistled on them in the first 5 minutes while X didn't reach the same total until the 15ish minute mark. I would expect that to even out in the new environment. The UD players also really thrive when they are playing before their crowd when it's electric, and although it has been a down season the crowd should be pretty up since a beatdown of X makes a lot of things better.
Last week Nigel thought UD would win by DD and I didn't see it. While I'm not bold enough to predict that I definitely give UD a better than 50% chance at a win and I wouldn't be shocked if it was by DD. My prediction is that Kenny Frease gets in foul trouble early with a questionable call (possibly offensive) and a cheap foul on D when he can't stay in front of Josh Benson. I think he sits most of the first half and that really takes a toll on the X offense since he is the one player UD can't match up when he is allowed to hook defenders with his off arm in the low post.
As far as the the total I wouldn't be shocked if it went over or under regardless of who wins, although IMO an X win on anything other than a last minute shot would probably lead to an over while a UD win could be at any total since they could win the game with efficient offense or lockdown defense in this game.
Dayton 71 X 64
UD hasn't been settling for 3 pt shots as often in the last few games and if they continue to take it to the basket they can create foul trouble for X and that will be a huge problem for them. X is very thin and I think UD can create some matchup problems early that could get X in foul trouble. The last matchup between them started each half with Dayton having 7-8 fouls whistled on them in the first 5 minutes while X didn't reach the same total until the 15ish minute mark. I would expect that to even out in the new environment. The UD players also really thrive when they are playing before their crowd when it's electric, and although it has been a down season the crowd should be pretty up since a beatdown of X makes a lot of things better.
Last week Nigel thought UD would win by DD and I didn't see it. While I'm not bold enough to predict that I definitely give UD a better than 50% chance at a win and I wouldn't be shocked if it was by DD. My prediction is that Kenny Frease gets in foul trouble early with a questionable call (possibly offensive) and a cheap foul on D when he can't stay in front of Josh Benson. I think he sits most of the first half and that really takes a toll on the X offense since he is the one player UD can't match up when he is allowed to hook defenders with his off arm in the low post.
As far as the the total I wouldn't be shocked if it went over or under regardless of who wins, although IMO an X win on anything other than a last minute shot would probably lead to an over while a UD win could be at any total since they could win the game with efficient offense or lockdown defense in this game.
Dayton 71 X 64
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