KineProfessor System Plays

[RahStahMan]

Hey gang,

Being an advocate of researching your own games I've never re3ally felt comfortable blindly following system plays but I have been following this system for a few days and it's been so good for the bankroll it's made me so much of a believer I decided to post it here so that hopefully some (or many) of you will make a few dollars as well.
If you're one of those guys who relishes in the wins but turns asshat with the losses please refrain from taking part or at the very least from posting.
Why?
As it is explained below,"... When you see the teams that we will be betting on, your first inclination is to say NO, we should [not] bet on them....The more you research it, the more you won't want to bet on these teams and that is a fact. I don't know how many times someone came into my thread last year and said something to the effect of "how can you bet that team" or "that team sucks, etc. etc." only to have that team cover time and time again. If you like this system, bet it or follow it, and if you don't - just avoid this thread altogether. Let me repeat, THE MORE YOU RESEARCH THESE PLAYS, THE MORE YOU WONT WANT TO BET ON THE TEAMS THAT THE SYSTEM SAYS TO BET ON!"

I am going to post his initial post made on Jan 29th entitled " Emergency Thread for "THE SYSTEM"." below but for those of you that can't bother I'll summarize.


THE SYSTEM
Bet AGAINST any team that is:
1) at home
2) ranked #180 or worse on KenPom
3) favored by 6.5 or more

TODAYS PICKS say TAKE...
1. FLA-Int +9
2. E.Illinois +8.5
3. Samford +9
4. Tenn-Chat +7

"Almost" play ...
5. UL-Laf +9
6. Cal-Riverside +7.5

SYTEM RECORD TO DATE (includes "Almost " plays which are plays made on teams ranked between #160-179)
20-7

(Google "Kenpom fanmatchup" (2nd link) OR if youre using firefox highlight "kenpom fanmatch" and right-click to choose "Search Google for" option)

Again I am only posting this now because it has won me some money the past few days and I plan on playing it through.
I also didn't post until today because today is the official first day of the system as all plays made since the 1st week of Feb. were considered "Pre-System" plays.
Call it what you will, it's won me and apparently many others money so why not you too?

ALL credit goes to "KineProfessor" (poster on covers) for sharing this with fellow bettors.
Below is his initial post from Jan 29th.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~

Before you read this, if you want to know my record, last season I finished up over 20+ units (which is pretty good as about 4-5% of my bankroll equals 1-unit) and this season I am up just under 13-units posted and up almost 20-units overall (posted and non-posted combined). Last season I also created a system that went 37-10 the last three weeks of the college hoops season (all documented) although I didn't bet all those games as I was still testing the system.

I say all that to say I'm not just some poser trying to get attention. I could care less about the attention and just consider us gamblers as a "family" trying to beat the books and feel that we are all in this together. I'm not like many of these numbnuts who starts threads with "system play" and then never even discloses what the system is and disappears in days after the first system posting.

I take no ownership of this system and you can feel free to do whatever you like with this information. If you want to make changes to it or do any other variation of it, feel free and you don't need my permission to do so. Just understand that this is a "system" for a reason and I created it for specific reasons over many years of playing, coaching, and now gambling. This system did awesome last year, but could suck big butt this year I have no idea (although I suspect it will be very good again this year).

If you do consider betting this "system" I suggest you bet ALL of the system plays EVERY TIME, until you either win a ton or give up on it. At one point last year, it was only .500 before it caught fire to finish 37-10. Your only following a system if you bet it every single time there is a play. If you pick and choose when to bet it your just "handicapping" and its no longer a system.

Lastly, please READ all of these posts completely before asking questions as most of your questions will be answered with the information below:

For anyone who missed "THE SYSTEM" last year, here is how it did last year:

Saturday Feb 13: 4-1
#258 Yale -11.5, won by 13 (system loss)
#234 UC Riverside -7.5, LOST by 3 (system win)
#192 Troy -12, won by 3 (system win)
#250 Tenn Tech -10.5, won by 9 (system win)
#267 UC Irvine -7, won by 2 (system win)

Sunday Feb 14: 0-1
#197 Central Michigan -14.5, won by 17 (system loss)

Monday Feb 15: 0-2
#195 Austin Peay -7.5, won by 20 (system loss)
#187 Arkansas St -7.5, won by 17 (system loss)

Tuesday - NO PLAYS

Wednesday Feb 17: 1-0
#222 UC Northridge -8.5, won by 5 (system win)

Thursday Feb 18: 5-0
#282 Louisiana Monroe -10, LOST by 9 (system win)
#198 Louisiana Lafayette -7, won by 2 (system win)
#195 Austin Peay -10, won by 5 (system win)
#202 Denver -13, won by 5 (system win)
#205 Montana St. -12.5, won by 6 (system win)

Friday Feb 19: 1-0
#309 Penn -7 LOST by 7 (system win)

Saturday Feb 20: 15-3
#189 Citadel -10 LOST by 6 (system win)
#200 Loyola Maryland -8 LOST by 1 (system win)
#180 Davidson -12.5 won by 3 (system win)
#201 Manhattan -8 won by 16 (system loss)
#217 Ball State -13 won by 16 (system loss)
#214 Rice -7 LOST by 11 (system win)
#227 Samford -7 won by 6 (system win)
#205 Georgia St -9 won by 15 (system loss)
#197 Central Michigan -11.5 won by 6 (system win)
#209 Radford -9.5 won by 8 (system win)
#267 UC Irvine -14 won by 1 (system win)
#214 Cal St Fullerton -20 won by 4 (system win)
#253 Jacksonville St. -11.5 LOST by 4 (system win)
#233 Evansville -7 LOST by 2 (system win)
#198 Louisiana Lafayette -11 won by 2 (system win)
#234 Northern Arizona -7.5 won by 3 (system win)
#188 Boise St -12.5 LOST by 8 (system win)
#247 Hawaii -7 LOST by 13 (system win)

Sunday Feb 21 - NO PLAYS

SYSTEM 26-7 from Feb 13th to Feb 21st; Now as you know I am not sure how Senior Night will influence the system, so this was the end of the original system to be brought back Feb 12th to Feb 20th of 2011 - but for kicks we extended it through the rest of the regular season (and first round of conference tourneys that fit the system) to see if Senior Nights and post-season play matter at all

Monday Feb 22: 1-0
#246 Samford -9, LOST by 6 (system win)

Tuesday Feb 23 - NO PLAYS

Wednesday Feb 24: 1-0
#189 Davidson -14, won by 4 (system win)

Thursday Feb 25: 1-0
#202 Arkansas St -13.5, won by 7 (system win)

Friday Feb 26: 0-1
#287 Idaho St -9.5, won by 35 (system loss)

Saturday Feb 27: 3-2
#184 Eastern Michigan -10, won by 6 (system win)
#204 Denver -6, won by 16 (system loss)
#214 Eastern Illinois -8, won by 5 (system win)
#274 Ark Little Rock -7.5, won by 6 (system win)
#217 San Diego -9.5, won by 17 (system loss)

Sunday Feb 28 - No Plays

Monday Mar 1 - No Plays

Tuesday Mar 2: 1-0
#205 Austin Peay -12, LOSE by 3 (system win)

Wednesday Mar 3 No Plays

Thursday Mar 4: 1-0
#247 Northern Illinois -11.5, won by 2 (system win)

Saturday Mar 6: 2-0
#308 Penn -12.5, won by 10 (system win)
#215 Cal St Fullerton -6.5, LOSE by 6 (system win)

Sunday Mar 7: 1-0
#187 Eastern Michigan -8.5, Win by 6 (system win)

OVERALL RECORD FOR SYSTEM: 37-10

[RahStahMan]

Let me just preface this portion by saying that I don't like systems and that I love deep research and analysis of the stats (if you have seen my write-ups you know what I mean). When you see the teams that we will be betting on, your first inclination is to say NO, we should bet on them. That is fine, but I don't want to hear it. I'm not saying that there are a ton of reasons to bet on these teams, but if they are a system play, they are a system play period. The more you research it, the more you won't want to bet on these teams and that is a fact. I don't know how many times someone came into my thread last year and said something to the effect of "how can you bet that team" or "that team sucks, etc. etc." only to have that team cover time and time again. If you like this system, bet it or follow it, and if you don't - just avoid this thread altogether. Let me repeat, THE MORE YOU RESEARCH THESE PLAYS, THE MORE YOU WONT WANT TO BET ON THE TEAMS THAT THE SYSTEM SAYS TO BET ON! Keep that in mind as you read the next two posts. Here are the system rules:

PLAY AGAINST ANY TEAM THAT:

1. IS RANKED OUTSIDE OF KENPOM'S TOP 180

The number 180 was basically chosen to represent the bottom half of teams in the country. Most (if not all) of these teams are not ranked, are rarely on tv, and most college bettors have STRONG opinions (mostly negative) about these teams (making them the strongest candidates for your money by the way).

Speaking of negative options of teams (and its the most important aspect of this system), I bet on Louisiana Lafayette +8.5 at the beginning of season when they were at Houston. Lafayette was UP 6 with 4 minutes to go and managed to lose the game by THIRTEEN points. They committed a foul on Houston's last 6 possessions and basically played one of the dumbest final 5 minutes I have EVER seen in a college basketball game. That game was November 23rd and I haven't bet on them since. Every time I see their name on the card I remember how they screwed me and I get pissed and I immediately move to the next game. Many gamblers (yourself include) have a few teams (especially the sucky ones) that you (and me) feel this way about because of some screw job earlier in the season.

This is why there is so much value in these games at the end of the season. Not many gamblers want to bet on these sucky teams, especially when they can be betting on the Duke's, Uconn's, and Texas' of the world. For that reason they lines aren't bet into the correct number like so many of the more "popular" game are. Not only that, but many gamblers can't wait to bet against these teams they know "suck" (or have a grudge against) so instead of the number correcting itself (or atleast holding form at the opening line) the number actually moves towards the favorite giving us even more value in taking the points.

* Side Note - The strength of the system dips significantly when you go lower than 180 (i.e. 179 or better) and doesn't improve much at all when you restrict it to only the top 200 or worse.

AND

2. IS AT HOME

The theory behind this is that the bottom half of teams in Kenpom's rankings do not deserve the number of points that linemakers award better teams when they play at home. It is certainly one thing to award the normal 4-5 points for homecourt advantage to teams like Duke and other power conference teams, but its another thing to award 4-5 points to the South Alabama and UNC Greensboro's of the world, this is an inherent flaw in linemaking for bottom tier teams.

My first argument is the South Alabama's shouldn't get those 4-5 points just because they are home (it should be obvious why, but I'll explain more in a bit). Next (and please remember that I start the system in the last 2-3 weeks of the season, last year it was began on Saturday Feb 13th, this season it will be Saturday Feb 12th), at this point of the season, motivation is VERY SUSPECT for these bottom level teams.

Being at home (which everyone thinks is a bonus) is actually a negative at this point of the season when your not truly playing for anything (post-season tourney and such and some won't even qualify for their own conferences post-season tourney). When you are home there are tons of distractions (friends, family, girls, girls, girls, girls, etc.) and its very hard to get "up" for games (especially games against other sucky, or even more sucky teams, that you should beat and such as is used in my system).

Road trips, on the other hand, often solidify teams. Most of the time, coaches confiscate players cell phones and they are forced to bond with one another and focus on the game at hand. Also, when these road teams are big underdogs they most often have a revenge factor and a familiarity with their opponent as they have already played them once this season (and lost). All of these factors are RARELY reflected in the line. Last season, most (if not almost every single time) the line WENT UP towards the favorite giving us yet again even more value with the underdog.

I repeat again that being home isn't nearly the advantage for these teams that most bettors believe and the system took advantage of this flaw to the tune of 37-10 last season.

AND

3. IS FAVORED BY 6.5 POINTS OR MORE

The line, 6.5 or more, was based on a few factors. First, this makes the spread a 3-possession game and I have always found that this is a good number to receive points with (or better) as depending on the situation and time of the game, more often than not, teams will either foul or not foul based on whether its a two possession game or not (obviously there are plenty of times that a team will or won't but when you get atleast 6.5 you have an advantage). Many times last season a team that we bet on with the system fouled and extended games and were able to get late 3's or layups against non-fouling defenses for system covers or other times when we were getting 10+ or more, our team didn't foul and let the opponents run out the clock while still covering a large spread so the system covers that way even more.

Also, when the line is set at 6.5 or higher it often times means a few other things. One, that public perception, and more importantly, the perception of the players of the home team is that they SHOULD win this game and dominate. Two, most of the time, when a team that is outside of Kenpom's top 180 is favored by more than 6.5 its because they have already won on their upcoming opponent's homecourt. This fact brings a lackadaisical attitude to the home team while the focused road team has a bit of revenge on their mind (again please note that almost all of the team's outside of Kenpom's top 180 has no dreams of post-season play and is essentially "playing out the string" of games and trying to get the season over as quickly as possible).

[RahStahMan]

Lastly, whether or not you all decide to try it out,
GL to us all.
After all we all share the same goal: Make a little money and have fun doing so.

Busy, busy day so again, BOL!
:beerbang:

[Nicky Santoro]

Nice read brother. I definitely have interest and will be watching. I wish you luck:thumbs:

[Polar Ice]

Been watching that system myself RahStah. Haven't jumped in yet, but I like the theory behind it.

BOL :thumbs:

[RahStahMan]

HaHa

1. FLA-Int +9 L (by 3)
2. E.Illinois +8.5 L
3. Samford +9 L
4. Tenn-Chat +7 L (by 3)

"Almost" play ...
5. UL-Laf +9 W (SU)
6. Cal-Riverside +7.5 L

Figures after I cash some nice change with this system the past week I post it here and it ****s the bed :ohman:
Considering I lost my ass all the way around yesterday I absorbed these losses in stride.
You should read all he complainers going off because the system lot so badly. I don't need to tell you guys but runs (good and bad) happen.
It's not the battles we should concern ourselves with it's the end of the war that matters most.
After all the clowns (who probably made some dough the previous two weeks with this system) came out of the wood work to scream and yell one poster retorted,"To those of who are ripping the system, suck it.
If you don't have the bankroll to eat an 0-4 night, you shouldn't be betting. Personally, I hope you all jump off the system.
KP always says just bet the same units everytime. If you decided to be an idiot and bet 5 units a clip on every game, eff off."
lol
**** happens and we move on.

So far just one pick today (gonna look again).
GL whichever way you go

SacSt +9.5 @2 pm EST

[RahStahMan]

SacSt +9.5 W (SU)

Sac St. came thru leading the game almost the entire time before eventually winning outright. (personally, they accounted for 3 of my 10 wins yesterday (ATS,1stH,& 2ndH))

No plays today. (Jackson St and Prairie View fit the criteria EXCEPT the system only applies to teams/conferences that are regularly lined.)

2/12 0-4
2/13 1-0

SYSTEM YTD 1-4

[RahStahMan]

I copy/pasta'd the following. (btw kenpom ranking is first number/followed by team/then spread)

2/15

"System Play"
270/Montana St.+7@202/SJSU..was +7.5 and going down.....

"Almost" plays are as follows....
201/Delaware+5.5@197/NE....Needs 1 pt. to get to 6.5.
311/Tenn Martin+5@310/E.Illinois..Needs 1 pt

The last two are games that would be"Worth taking a look at".
228/W&M+9.5@134/Hofstra..
#4...329/Toledo+14.5@172/ Ball St.
These last two games are obviously under the 180 we need to be at but worth taking a look.



I will def be on Mont.St as I'm in for the log haul based on prior experience.
GL whichever way you go
:thumbs:

[RahStahMan]

5/16
270/Montana St. +7 W

"Almost" plays
201/Delaware +5.5 W (SU)
311/Tenn Martin +5 W (SU)


No true system plays tonight*

"Almost" plays say take ... (the reason(s) the play is not a true system play)

222 Pepperdine +6 at 210 Loyola Marymount (line .5 pt off)
233 Cal St. Northridge +6 at 159 Cal Poly (line .5 pt off & rank -21 (21 spots below suggested ranking of the 180 min. Almost plays suggested rankings range from 160-179))

*Both games at 11 pm EST so the line has plenty of time to move.

Now why do I mention these "almost" plays?
Because as I stated in the original post from Jan 9 'til this past Sat. the true system AND almost system plays accumulated a 20-7 mark.

True Sys. YTD: 2-4 (1 of 2 wins SU)
True & Almost YTD: 5-5 (3 of 5 wins SU)

[bajadave]

Hi Ra... I see you got two westcoast teams..............what do you think about Long Beach and Pacific to night?

[RahStahMan]

Hi Ra... I see you got two westcoast teams..............what do you think about Long Beach and Pacific to night?

I took UC-Riv and UC-Irv (plays in my thread)
GL whichever way you go, Baja!
:thumbs:

[RahStahMan]

1-1 last night with the almost plays although the Cal-Poly/cal-Riv should not have beeen an almost play because the home team ranking was lower than 160 but I posteed it so I must count it.
Also, some guys are counting Pepperdine as a system play because they claim the line moved to 6.5 but I checked the line up until tip-off and I never saw 6.5 on either sportsbook, wagerweb, or oddsmaker so I won't count it as a true system play.

Tonight the system says take ...


So Alabama +10 @ North Texas (#184) 8 pm EST

UL Monroe +13.5 @ Denver (#192) 9 pm EST


GL whichever way you go


True Sys. YTD: 2-4 (1 of 2 wins SU)
True & Almost YTD: 6-6 (3 of 6 wins SU)


btw, the line moved to 8.5.
unlike last year the lines in these system plays are consistently moving against us.
these plays are being posted on 3 other forums I know of and supposedly a few pay sites (touts) are posting them as well. sucks.

[RahStahMan]

1-1 last night

No time to elaborate.
(btw, I did not count Pepperdine so:
True Sys. YTD: 3-5 (1 of 3 wins SU)
True & Almost YTD: 6-6 (3 of 6 wins SU)

I copied the following:

System 4-5 (I got Pepp at 6.5 and was told that the system was 4-1 since the 0-4 Saturday beginning - feel free to mark the record for you at whatever you like)

Hey guys, hope all is well for you. First, I hope you can realize how much time it has taken to writeup the first system threads and all the subsequent threads for the presystem and system, it literally takes me multiple hours every day (on top of the time it takes me to do my normal capping).

My workload has increased at both college and with my personal training business and I simply don't have the time to make a thread every single day. This really shouldn't matter at all as the system is super simple and clearly defined and I feel it will do better and better as the season comes to an end. Plus, there are a ton of very bright individuals in this thread who not only understand the system but the theories and reasoning behind it as well - LISTEN TO THEM.

Also, please realize that the system is a "living" entity. What I mean by that is you can mold and shape it the way you want to.

If you've taking the time to research (which by most of the responses in my last few threads - not many people are), last year a bunch of the teams ranked from Kenpom's 180-200 failed to cover many times giving us many system wins. This year it has not been the case. If you decided to start the system at Kenpom ranking #200 YOU ARE FREE TO DO SO.

If you notice that 6.5 to 9.5 underdogs are losing more than you like, you can start the system at +10 and beyond YOU ARE FREE TO DO SO.

Also, as many have mentioned "almost" system well have done well this season also so if you wanted to LOWER the standards to include more team like Kenpom 150 or better or spreads of 5 or more or whatever YOU ARE FREE TO DO SO.

Every year will be different, the only thing I can practically guarantee is that being AGAINST mediocre to crappy teams when they are at home giving BIG points will always be a winning proposition.

FRIDAY SYSTEM PLAY: Dartmouth +11.5

I have been reading lots of people saying that the Ivy League shouldn't be used in the system and my only question is Why? Last season the Ivy League went 2-1 for the system. Also, if you look deeper, here are some interesting facts about the teams in the Ivy League ATS since Jan 29th (these teams listed from highest to lowest in Kenpom ranking and includes teams that don't fit the system):

Top 3 teams in the league:
Princeton 1-3 as home favorite
Harvard 1-2 as home favorite
Yale 1-1 as home favorites

Bottom 5 teams in the league:
Penn 1-0 as road dog
Cornell 1-1 as road dog
Columbia 0-1 as road dog
Brown 2-0 as road dog
Dartmouth 1-1 as road dog

So the top 3 teams in the Ivy League are 3-6 ATS as home favorites and the bottom 5 teams are 5-3 as road dogs over the last three weeks. Those are money making numbers so why would we exclude this conference from the system?

Also if you look at the season-long college basketball trends you will see that there is only one "angle" that is hitting over 52% for the season, any guesses?

Road dogs are hitting at over 52% which is the highest of any "angle" (aka home favs, home dogs, road favs, road dogs).

Now when you use the "system" as a filter (aka only using the kenpom 180 or worse and favs of 6.5 or higher) that number jumps significantly (and that is season long not just when we started the presystem and system).

You can hate on me or hate on the system or hate your life for whatever reason, but the numbers are the numbers do with it what you like.

[RahStahMan]

2/19

Another win last night (I will post day to day records when I get a chance).

True Sys. YTD: 4-5 (4-1 run after 0-4 start)(1 of 4 wins SU)
True & Almost YTD: 7-6 (3 of 7 wins SU)

I copy/pasted the following (i put the new lines in current to 11 am EST in parenthesis):

SATURDAY SYSTEM PLAYS:

Monroe +14.5 @8 pm EST (line is now 13)
Greensboro +7 @8 pm EST (line is now 6)
Dartmouth +10 @7 pm EST (line is now 12)

Last season on Bracketbuster Saturday as long as we were AGAINST a team that normally got lines it was a play. If you decide to keep that as a rule (it did go undefeated like that last year), then other SYSTEM plays are:

Delaware St +8 (against Tenn St who fits the system)
Seattle +8.5 (against No Illinois who fits the system)
Radford +12.5 (against William and Mary who fits the system)
Gardner Webb +8 (against Tenn Tech who fits the system)


ALMOST
Illinois St if it gets to +6.5
Fresno St (Kenpom ranking 163)


GL whichever way you go
:thumbs:

[RahStahMan]

2/19

Another win last night (I will post day to day records when I get a chance).

True Sys. YTD: 4-5 (4-1 run after 0-4 start)(1 of 4 wins SU)
True & Almost YTD: 7-6 (3 of 7 wins SU)

I copy/pasted the following (i put the new lines in current to 11 am EST in parenthesis):

SATURDAY SYSTEM PLAYS:

Monroe +14.5 @8 pm EST (line is now 13)
Greensboro +7 @8 pm EST (line is now 6)
Dartmouth +10 @7 pm EST (line is now 12)

Last season on Bracketbuster Saturday as long as we were AGAINST a team that normally got lines it was a play. If you decide to keep that as a rule (it did go undefeated like that last year), then other SYSTEM plays are:

Delaware St +8 (against Tenn St who fits the system)
Seattle +8.5 (against No Illinois who fits the system)
Radford +12.5 (against William and Mary who fits the system)
Gardner Webb +8 (against Tenn Tech who fits the system)


ALMOST
Illinois St if it gets to +6.5
Fresno St (Kenpom ranking 163)


GL whichever way you go
:thumbs:

.