KineProfessor System Plays

[RahStahMan]

2/20


SATURDAY SYSTEM PLAYS:

Monroe +14.5 W (SU)
Greensboro +7 L
Dartmouth +10 L

Last season on Bracketbuster Saturday as long as we were AGAINST a team that normally got lines it was a play. If you decide to keep that as a rule (it did go undefeated like that last year), then

other SYSTEM plays are:

Delaware St +8 L
Seattle +8.5 W (SU)
Radford +12.5 L
Gardner Webb +8 W (almost SU win;lost by 2)


ALMOST
Illinois St (if it gets to +6.5) no play (never got to 6.5)
Fresno St (Kenpom ranking 163) L


True Sys. YTD: 5-7 (5-3 run after 0-4 start)(2 of 5 wins SU)
True & Almost YTD: 8-9 (4 of 8 wins SU)


True system play today ... None

Almost play ...
S.Alabama +10 @ Denver (175)

Yes I realize I'm posting this play after the fact but two things make it okay.
1. Its not a true system play and unlike almost plays that need line movement this was an almost play because Denver's Kenpom ranking was 175. That's something that wasn't going to change today so it had no chance of becoming a true system play.
2. Determining true system plays is something that CAN be done after a games completion


I did play it though (posted in my thread) and it hit
:thumbs:

UPDATE:

True Sys. YTD: 5-7
True & Almost YTD: 9-9 (4 of 9 wins SU)

[RahStahMan]

I don't know whats up with this thread but this is twice I make a post in the past few days where nothing shows up. Its like I bumped the thread w/out making a post.
:dunno:

I'll try again

-------------------------------------


2/20


SATURDAY SYSTEM PLAYS:

Monroe +14.5 W (SU)
Greensboro +7 L
Dartmouth +10 L

Last season on Bracketbuster Saturday as long as we were AGAINST a team that normally got lines it was a play. If you decide to keep that as a rule (it did go undefeated like that last year), then

other SYSTEM plays are:

Delaware St +8 L
Seattle +8.5 W (SU)
Radford +12.5 L
Gardner Webb +8 W (almost SU win;lost by 2)


ALMOST
Illinois St (if it gets to +6.5) no play (never got to 6.5)
Fresno St (Kenpom ranking 163) L


True Sys. YTD: 5-7 (2 of 5 wins SU)
True & Almost YTD: 8-9 (4 of 8 wins SU)


True system play today ... None

Almost play ...
S.Alabama +10 @ Denver (175)

Yes I realize I'm posting this play after the fact but two things make it okay.
1. Its not a true system play and unlike almost plays that need line movement this was an almost play because Denver's Kenpom ranking was 175. That's something that wasn't going to change today so it had no chance of becoming a true system play.
2. Determining true system plays is something that CAN be done after a games completion


I did play it though (posted in my thread) and it hit
:thumbs:

UPDATE:

True Sys. YTD: 5-7
True & Almost YTD: 9-9 (4 of 9 wins SU)

[RahStahMan]

There were no system plays for Tues.

2/23

Todays System Plays

1. Play Towson +7 at Delaware (#191)

2. Play Toledo+15 at Western Michigan (#196)



Almost System Plays

1. Play Charlotte +6 at George Washington (#166)

2. Play St. Josephs +7 at Massachusetts (#168)

3. Play Eastern Michigan +8 at Ball State (#170)

4. Play Bowling Green +8 at Ohio (#171)

[RahStahMan]

Last night:

1. Play Towson +7 at Delaware (#191) L
2. Play Toledo+15 at Western Michigan (#196) W

Almost System Plays
1. Play Charlotte +6 at George Washington (#166) L
2. Play St. Josephs +7 at Massachusetts (#168) L
3. Play Eastern Michigan +8 at Ball State (#170) L
4. Play Bowling Green +8 at Ohio (#171) L


UPDATE:

True Sys. YTD: 6-8
True & Almost YTD: 10-15 (4 of 10 wins SU)


2/24

System Plays

1. Play The Citadel +10.5 at Western Carolina (#182)
2. Play Troy +10 at Florida Atlantic (#187)
3. Play Florida International +10.5 at Western Kentucky (#202)
4. Play SE Missouri St +9 at Tennessee State (#214)

[RahStahMan]

Last Night Results

1. The Citadel +10.5 at Western Carolina (#182) W (SU)
2. Troy +10 at Florida Atlantic (#187) L
3. Florida International +10.5 at Western Kentucky (#202) W
4. SE Missouri St +9 at Tennessee State (#214) W


UPDATE:
True & Almost YTD: 13-16
True Sys. YTD: 9-9 (9-5 run after 0-4 start)(3 of 9 wins SU)


2/52

System Plays

1. Play Dartmouth +13 at Yale (#183)

[RahStahMan]

Last nights results

1. Dartmouth +13 at Yale (#183) W

This is what I have so far
UPDATE:
True & Almost YTD: 14-16
True Sys. YTD: 10-9 (10-5 run after 0-4 start)

This is what was posted this morning.


2/26

2010 "System" (Feb 13th - end of the season): 37-10
2011 "Presystem" (Jan 29th-Feb 11th): 18-6
2011 "System" (Feb 12th - Today): 13-11

System Plays for Saturday:
Dartmouth +8
Jacksonville St +7
Bowling Green +7.5
Eastern Illinois +8.5
Ark Little Rock +6.5
Citadel +9
Illinois St +6.5
UNC Wilmington +6.5





My total is two off Kine's True system record in the Win column and 1 off in the Loss column.
???
I will go back and recheck that when I get a chance.
GL whichever way you go!
:beer2:

[RahStahMan]

Last nights results

1. Dartmouth +13 at Yale (#183) W

This is what I have so far
UPDATE:
True & Almost YTD: 14-16
True Sys. YTD: 10-9 (10-5 run after 0-4 start)

This is what was posted this morning.


2/26

2010 "System" (Feb 13th - end of the season): 37-10
2011 "Presystem" (Jan 29th-Feb 11th): 18-6
2011 "System" (Feb 12th - Today): 13-11

System Plays for Saturday:
Dartmouth +8
Jacksonville St +7
Bowling Green +7.5
Eastern Illinois +8.5
Ark Little Rock +6.5
Citadel +9
Illinois St +6.5
UNC Wilmington +6.5





My total is two off Kine's True system record in the Win column and 1 off in the Loss column.
???
I will go back and recheck that when I get a chance.
GL whichever way you go!
:beer2:

.

[RahStahMan]

Results for Sat. System Plays:

Dartmouth +8 L
Jacksonville St +7 W
Bowling Green +7.5 W
Eastern Illinois +8.5 W
Ark Little Rock +6.5 L by 2 pts
Citadel +9 L by 2 pts
Illinois St +6.5 W
UNC Wilmington +6.5 L

Even with 2 losses coming by just 1 bucket a piece so far Sat has been tough on the system.
4-4 day left the system eating the juice.

Busy weekend so I haven't been able to go back and recheck the plays but will do so in the near future.

One play tonight :

Marist+14 @Siena (#190)


BUT an interesting post by a fellow bettor says stay away.


-------

Posted: 2/27/2011 2:45:33 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Marketmaker:

is anyone else as nervous about ArkRock as I am....the fundamental reason for the system is "crappy teams at home laying big points to crappier teams when BOTH teams basically have nothing left to play for" Right?

ArkSt. is tied for their division lead, ArkRock is out of it...

This is ArkSt.'s last game of the season (senior day) and ArkRock still has one more home game left....

I may just break the system rule of "playing them all" and avoid this one...BOL to the rest of you.



MM

I posted the above last night, and saw similar things in the Bowling Green and UNCWill games so avoided them as well. Went heavier on the last 2 games last night and cashed nicely. I've said it several times in here before, and will echo those same comments....Fundamentally this system is a sound system for looking at lower quality teams playing one another late in the season when neither has nothing left to play for. But when you have teams still fighting for conf/div titles that just happen to be outside the 180, or have heavy senior leadership playing on senior day, we have to be careful. Therefore it's a good base to begin your normal handicapping, but not a clearcut play in every instance. And I don't think it's a coincidence that the lines have been coming in lower than normal for these games, or that many websites out there were posting several of these games as their best picks a few weeks ago when KP had his first initial big writeup......The books have adjusted. And if you go back and read his first writeup, he made mention of a lot of these topics and potential concerns. I thank him immensely for bringing this "trend" to our attention, and will use it in some shape or form every year as a basis to find games, I would not usually play.

All that being said, I'm staying away from the doormat of the MAAC in Marist today. Both teams are playing their last game of the season. Marist's roster is loaded with underclassman and virtually no contributing Seniors. Siena is lead by two significant contributing Seniors playing their last games of their careers. The line came out spot on in the 14-15 range, and of course is moving against us, most likely because it's a "system play".

GL to all of us going forward and to those that decide to play it anyway. And once again....Thanks KP for all your hardwork in bringing this angle to our attention.

MM

[RahStahMan]

Results for 2/27:

Marist+14 @Siena (#190) W


There were no plays the last 2 days.
GL whichever way you go!

from KineProfessor (I still have to back check the 2011 records):

Alerts YTD: 39-26 +14.7 units
2010 "System" (Feb 13th - end of the season): 37-10
2011 "Presystem" (Jan 29th-Feb 11th): 18-6
2011 "System" (Feb 12th - Today): 18-15

System Says Take:

Fordham +11.5

Idaho St +6.5


* Eastern Kentucky vs. SE Missouri St isn't a system play because it is at a neutral floor (but I still like the points)
* Tennessee Martin vs Tennessee St is a semi-home game for Tennessee St as the game is in Nashville Tennessee so it isn't a system play either (but I still like the points)

[RahStahMan]

Results for 3/2:

Fordham +11.5 L

Idaho St +6.5 L

Play:

Tenn-Ma +7

[RahStahMan]

Results for 3/3:

Tenn-Ma +7 L


Still not back-checked but with 3 losses in a row it looks like good fade material.

2011 "System" (Feb 12th - Today): 18-18

3/4

Play:

Brown +6.5 @ Cornell #200