System: Betting against the public

[Beehan]

Greetings, all! I've been reading/tailing for a while and finally got my account approved. Just for fun I thought I'd keep track of a "betting against the public" system for a little while. Following one of the basic rules of betting, I'm going against every college basketball team that is getting 70% or more of the action. At this moment (6pm), these are the system plays for today (2/3/2011):

Florida Atlantic +3.5 (27% of bets) @ North Texas
Stanford +2.5 (27%) vs. Arizona
Arizona St +8 (27%) @ California
Depaul +11 (28%) vs. Notre Dame
Sacramento St +1 (28%) vs. Portland St
UC Irvine +1.5 (29%) vs. CS Fullerton
Pacific +2.5 (27%) @ Cal Santa Barbara


Note that I'm putting very little on these bets for now. I suppose I should lock these in right around game time, especially for the 10pm games, but that's not always feasible. Let's see how it goes and best of luck to everyone!

[moko44]

how's it been working for you, hope you do well

[joepa66]

:welcome: and GL with the system Beehan! Can't wait to see how the number work out.....

[maddoggie]

I heavily rely upon betting against the public when I cap...

home favorites that aren't backed by the public seem to cover more often than not...

as well as home dogs (that aren't public favs)

I guess what I am trying to say, is home teams that aren't public favs are good to back (at least by my experience)...

I have crunched some numbers as well as far as betting %, home/away, and point spread...

best of luck to you...

~md

[Daws1089]

i find that betting against the public blindly is not profitable. As the public does not always lose. I think its a good tool to use when considering games, but not the sole reason to bet a game. What are you using to determine what percentage is on each side?

[akatdrake]

Good luck to you! :thumbs:

[bajadave]

Let me put my two cents in: I take consensus picks just like they do with horses. I guess that's going with the public and so far I stink! My record is 2 wins and 8 losses, not good.
I was told by someone here that going aganist consensus with the first betting rule for handicapping. So I would say, heck, why not..................go for it. GL!:thumbs:

[Beehan]

Day 1: 2/3/11

Florida Atlantic +3.5 (27% of bets) @ North Texas W... SU by 17
Stanford +2.5 (27%) vs. Arizona L
Arizona St +8 (27%) @ California W
Depaul +11 (28%) vs. Notre Dame L
Sacramento St +1 (28%) vs. Portland St W... SU by 8
UC Irvine +1.5 (29%) vs. CS Fullerton L
Pacific +2.5 (27%) @ Cal Santa Barbara W... SU by 6


So if those last 2 late night games come through[EDIT: They did!], I'll be 4-3 just blindly betting against the public. Oh and I'm using public betting information from:

TAKEN RIGHT FROM THE STICKY IN THE GENERAL FORUM FROM YOMONTE......
"Please do not post a link, email addy or phone #. You might think that the link is innocent, but email one of us and we will check it out and let you know if its OK. But not until."

which may or may not be super accurate, but it's the best free info I've found so far. I'll keep this up through the weekend at least and see where it goes. Some sort of filters would probably be appropriate; I'm open to suggestions. But hey, a 4-3 winning day is better than I've been doing on my own! ;)

[Nicky Santoro]

Very interesting. Hope you do well. Your a brave soul:thumbs:.

[Beehan]

System is 4-3 so far. Tonight seems like a great night to bet against the public. We have 2 teams that have 80% of public bets, and several others that are close. Case in point: FAIRFIELD. This team is favored by a ridiculously low number on its face. Despite having between 75% to 80% of the bets on Fairfield all day, the number is STILL dropping. The line was Fairfield -3.5, and now it's at -2.5. This is extremely fishy (the number should be rising, not falling) and my money is on Iona.

On to the picks:

Friday, 2/4/11:
Florida Gulf Coast +9 (16% of public bets) vs. E Tennessee St
Brown (20%) +2 vs. Columbia
Niagara (21%) +5.5 vs. Saint Peter's
Cornell (23%) +4 @ Yale
Iona (26%) +2.5 vs. Fairfield

I like that most of the system picks are at home. Eventually I'll break down the system record into home teams and away teams. Hey, you have to like a home team that's getting points when Vegas isn't making much of an effort at equal action! Oh and again, I'm putting a very small amount on these for now, so please don't go crazy on these or give me too much credit for being ballsy

[Beehan]

i find that betting against the public blindly is not profitable. As the public does not always lose. I think its a good tool to use when considering games, but not the sole reason to bet a game. What are you using to determine what percentage is on each side?

I agree, the public does not always lose. But the idea here is that the heavily-bet teams will lose 55% of the time or more. Half of these games or more should be "trap" games in which Vegas has a reason for allowing a team to sit on 80% of public bets. Those favorites are really tempting, for good reason! Even in just 2 days of doing this with very small units, I'm having trouble going against certain teams... is that my bias talking? Is that me just being tempted by a clever trap? Time will tell.

[Beehan]

]Friday, 2/4/11 RESULTS:
Florida Gulf Coast +9 (16% of public bets) vs. E Tennessee St W
Brown (20%) +2 vs. Columbia W... SU by 8
Niagara (21%) +5.5 vs. Saint Peter's L
Cornell (23%) +4 @ Yale W
Iona (26%) +2.5 vs. Fairfield L by 4 (system would've won if bet at original line :)

3-2, again, not too bad!

[Beehan]

System is now 7-5! Small sample size, but I like the early success.

Saturday, 2/5/11 Early system picks
Saint Louis +11 (21%) @ Xavier W - NOTE: This pick is late, but I'd like to include it in the SYSTEM's record. Since it's a system pick and I'm not tracking my own picks here. Unless everyone thinks that's shady, I'm going to include this game in the SYSTEM's record.
Fordham +13.5 (23%) vs. Richmond L
Drake +4 (28%) vs. Northern Iowa W
Iowa State (29%) +3.5 vs. Kansas State W
Baylor +5 (23%) vs. Texas A&M W
South Florida +8 (23%) vs. Syracuse L

That takes us through the 3:00 games. Ohio may become a system pick (31% of bets) but it's not quite there at this time. Best of luck to everyone!

Saturday: 4-2

[Beehan]

Tulane +4 vs. UAB L
LSU +2.5 vs. Ole Miss W
Loyola Chicago +5 L
Iowa +5.5 W

Loyola is a system play that I didn't see in time :( Still a system play though

Late games: 2-2
SATURDAY TOTAL: 6-4

[Beehan]

There were a ton of games on Saturday, and I probably missed some late games. Still, the system so far is 13-9. Making money overall! Small card today:

Sunday, 2/6/11
Canisius -2.5 (22%) vs. Saint Peter's

I don't particularly like this play, but whatever. That's all I'm seeing at the moment for today.