System: Betting against the public

[bigbag12]

he posted a link on the 1st page but got removed.

Where are you getting your betting % from?

[Beehan]

Ok, rarely do I question the system, because it requires one to put aside one's biases and trust that the counter-intuitive system will make money in the same way that Vegas makes money. However, I have to draw the line somewhere, and Centenary is my personal threshold for ridiculous bets. That's a team that hasn't won a single game all year and that has just been getting blown out. Furthermore, there are so few bets on this game that it shouldn't even really fit the system.

Now, to be clear, I'm going to include the game in the system's record because I don't yet have a formal requirement regarding the number of bets on a game. But I refuse to bet on a team that bad and I'm seriously considering adding a filter that for a game to be playable, it has to have a certain number of public bets on it. That just makes sense, because there's no overall "square" consensus when only a few fools are paying any attention to the game. End rant.

@Woody- I can't post any links, but I just found some site on google by searching for ncaa basketball public bets. Again I'm not recommending any sites at all, there are a few out there, and maybe there's one that's a sponsor of this site, and if there is, I'd be happy to endorse it ;)

UPDATE: The public solved my predicament by betting up Centenary to 31%. I'm quite pleased and will not be including this game in the system's record. Unfortunately, the Detroit game is now at 36% too and I have to eliminate that one too. All other bets are locked in as of 5:08PM EST and will be considered system plays regardless of late bets.

[Beehan]

Just for the record, if I did add a filter requiring at least 500 public bets (according to the site I'm using) for a game to be playable, that would eliminate the Oral Roberts, N. Dakota State, and Centenary plays. Seriously, how can there be a public consensus with only a couple hundred bets on a game? The overall betting percentage would resist any evening out effect of a line adjustment, as opposed to a heavily bet game, which would theoretically respond better to line adjustments intended to even out the public bets. (shrug) we'll see

[Beehan]

8-5 last night with some really exciting games! System is now 32-19. Not too shabby. Should be 3 or 4 plays tonight, will check back in around 5-5:30. Also, I'm starting to suspect that there's money to be made on the road dog Money Lines. I'm seeing a good number of road dogs win straight up. Meh, happy Friday and best of luck to everyone!

[joepa66]

Where are you getting your betting % from?

Woody, if Beehan allows ya to send him an e-mail, you can request his e-mail address thru Kevin and he can send you the links.....:thumbs:

[joepa66]

Nice work Beehan!:thumbs:

[Beehan]

Woody, if Beehan allows ya to send him an e-mail, you can request his e-mail address thru Kevin and he can send you the links.....:thumbs:

Yeah do that, send me a PM or request the address from Kevin... only Woody though please lol

Nice work Beehan!:thumbs:

Thanks Joepa, that means a lot coming from you! BOL tonight!

[Beehan]

Friday, Feb 11 System Picks
Columbia (17%) +3 vs. Princeton L
Cornell (28%) -2.5 vs. Pennsylvania W
Dartmouth (23%) +1 vs. Brown L
Marist (17%) +9.5 vs. Saint Peter's L
Jacksonville U (28%) +5 @ E Tennessee St (Road dog!) L


It's a surprisingly large card considering that there are only 12 total games on the college board. Oh well, I'm sticking to my guns here, playing small units and siding with Vegas (in theory). Happy Friday and good luck! Everyone LOVES St. Peter's and Princeton, which is why I do not!

[Beehan]

Rough night for the system; apparently those pesky Ivy teams and their betting fans are too smart for me. 1-4 on the night, 33-23 overall. I think this means that the public had a good night? Look for Vegas to make it all back on Saturday. On to Saturday's early games:

Saturday, 2/12/11 Early System Plays: LOCKED 11:24am
South Florida (18%) +6.5 vs. Notre Dame L
Saint Louis (25%) +10 @ Richmond (Road dog!) L- SLU gives up 8 unanswered points in the last 2:30 :<
Clemson (25%) -1.5 vs. North Carolina L
Texas Tech (13%) +5 vs. Texas A&M W
Old Dominion (30%) +2.5 @ Virginia Commonwealth (Road dog!) W
Delaware (27%) +2 vs. Hofstra L
Towson (26%) -1 vs. NC Wilmington L
Cleveland State (40%) -16 vs. Youngstown State - NO PLAY; Cleveland St is up to 40% now
Virginia (28%) +12 @ Florida State (Road dog!) W

That takes us up through the 3:30 games. I'm not going to lock these in until closer to noon myself in case there's some line movement. Best of luck today!

[Beehan]

4pm to 6:30pm Games:
Illinois Chicago (18%) +3 vs. Wisc Milwaukee L
Northern Illinois (24%) +5 vs. Kent State L
Louisiana Tech (25%) +1.5 vs. New Mexico State W
Oregon State (28%) +12 @ UCLA (Road dog!) W
Baylor (24%) +11 @ Texas (Road dog!) W
Loyola Marymount (28%) +2 vs. Portland L
Central Michigan (26%) -2 vs. Bowling Green W

7pm Games and Later:
Auburn (27) +2 vs. Mississippi State W
Dartmouth (6%) +6 vs. Yale L
Cornell (16%) +4 vs. Princeton W
Oklahoma State (23%) +5 @ Nebraska (Road dog!) L
Wright State (27%) +7 @ Valparaiso (Road dog!) W
Cal Irvine (20%) +3 vs. Santa Barbara W
Kansas State (28%) +1.5 @ Colorado (Road dog!) L by 1/2 :(
UTEP (26%) -11 vs. SMU L
CS Northridge (23%) +4.5 vs. Long Beach State L
Appalachian State (27%) -7.5 vs. Tennessee Chattanooga W
Western Carolina (16%) -9 vs. Samford W
Wofford (24%) -19.5 vs. Georgia Southern L
Eastern Kentucky (29%) -8.5 vs. Eastern Illinois W
Elon (25%) +3 @ The Citadel (Road dog!) W
Morehead State (27%) -18 vs. SE Missouri State L

Ok, wow, that's a ton of games. I recommend betting very small units or maybe just betting on the road dogs. And again, these numbers may change by game time but I'm not sure if I'll be back on by 7:00. Best of luck!

[Beehan]

System went 15-15 today, clearly that's way too much action for one day, but road dogs were 6-3. So far those look like the smart plays. Learning some good lessons here I think!

[Beehan]

Smaller card today.

Sunday system picks:
St peters +2 W
Duquesne -5.5 L
Northwestern +2 (road dog) L
Iowa pk L
Miami +9.5 L by 1/2
Arizona state +5 L

Best of luck! No more 30-play saturdays :)

[Beehan]

Add Iowa +1 L

[Beehan]

At a 49-45 record, system is coming back down to earth as it had to do sooner or later. Pretty disappointing after a hot start. Will continue to track just for fun though.

[Beehan]

Took a night off. Tonight's plays would be:

Towson +7.5 L
NC WIlmington +3.5 W.. SU by 8
Seton Hall +3 Push.. I bought the 1/2 point myself :sm:
Wisconsin Green Bay +4 W
Jacksonville +5.5 W
San Jose State -6.5 L
Oral Roberts -18 W

And for the record, the system would've picked Kansas State last night, not Kansas! My fav picks tonight are Seton Hall and Wisconsin Green Bay. Playing these SMALL