Tweet
A little breakdown on the game tonight for anyone interested.
This is going to be an incredible game tonight with two of the best players on each team going head to head. I think Richmond needs to win both of those matchups decisively to win the game since Dayton has a much better team and bench outside of Richmond's Big 2. The two key matchups are Anderson vs Staten and Harper vs Wright. I think Staten showed a lot in the matchup with Tu Holloway that will help him with Anderson. He has steadily grown up as the team has grown throughout the year. I think he will be able to provide quality defense on Anderson and with alternating defense with Williams or Josh Parker they will be able to throw 3 quality defenders at Anderson all game where Anderson will likely have to be facing a UD defense that is waiting for him each time down the court. I think this matchup will be very close with Anderson getting 15-19 depending on how many FT's he takes but really having to work for his points. I also think Staten forcing him to guard so much on defense will have an effect on his legs as it is very difficult to do against Dayton, especially at home where they are more proficient at pushing tempo.
Slight Advantage Richmond
Harper vs Wright is a very interesting matchup. Very few teams have a player with the athleticism and physicality of Chris Wright to throw at Justin Harper. I think Wright is able to limit a little of what Harper does since he won't have a significant advantage in either size or athleticism like he typically does. Plus the Dayton centers do a very good job of helping on penetration in the event that Wright gets beat on the dribble. I also expect Wright to make Harper work on the defensive end where he won't be able to free lance for steals and deflections as much. If he leaves Wright he will head to the basket for the alley hoop like a freight train. And if Dayton gets a few highlight reel dunks that tends to make the hoop bigger for the next couple of 3 pt shots. If Wright gets in early foul trouble then Harper could be the deciding factor in the game.
Slight Advantage Richmond
As for the rest of the team I think their is a significant advantage for the Flyers as they have more depth and physicality on their bench to go with superior athleticism. In the last couple of matchups Mooney has had Richmond send 5 guys to the defensive glass to protect getting blistered on the boards and it hasn't helped a ton. Dayton is able to send 4 just as aggressively without getting beat on the break. I think this will once again be a key since Richmond will have to face a set defense on every possession and should struggle to get to 60 points in that situation.
I think the other advantage for the Flyers is that Richmond doesn't like to use a lot of their bench. Xavier was about the only team that didn't falter down the stretch and although they played their starters almost the whole game the reason that probably wasn't as much of an issue is the absurd amount of shooting fouls and how early X was in the bonus each half and the rest that provided their players. Richmond will likely tire as they aren't as likely to get the frequent rests and free points during the game since they average 18 ft attempts per game.
I have a feeling that Richmond will try and control pace but will get hammered on the boards. That will allow Dayton with enough second chances to help their improving fg%. I expect Dayton gets atleast 6 extra offensive boards and out rebounds them by 10+. With the exception of the turd Dayton dropped at Umass when they were admittedly looking past the Minutemen they have improved their play in almost every outing since the first week of December. I failed to see that when they fell at Cintas like all other comers but in that game it took a lot of questionable foul calls and a great performance by Holloway with some real clutch shots over great defense. I like both Dayton and the under in this game since I don't think it's likely that UD goes nuts for 40 in a half although big wins aren't unheard of at home. I like Dayton in the area of 65-59. A 4-7 point win with the winner getting to the mid to upper 60's at best. I'll add my play later.
This is going to be an incredible game tonight with two of the best players on each team going head to head. I think Richmond needs to win both of those matchups decisively to win the game since Dayton has a much better team and bench outside of Richmond's Big 2. The two key matchups are Anderson vs Staten and Harper vs Wright. I think Staten showed a lot in the matchup with Tu Holloway that will help him with Anderson. He has steadily grown up as the team has grown throughout the year. I think he will be able to provide quality defense on Anderson and with alternating defense with Williams or Josh Parker they will be able to throw 3 quality defenders at Anderson all game where Anderson will likely have to be facing a UD defense that is waiting for him each time down the court. I think this matchup will be very close with Anderson getting 15-19 depending on how many FT's he takes but really having to work for his points. I also think Staten forcing him to guard so much on defense will have an effect on his legs as it is very difficult to do against Dayton, especially at home where they are more proficient at pushing tempo.
Slight Advantage Richmond
Harper vs Wright is a very interesting matchup. Very few teams have a player with the athleticism and physicality of Chris Wright to throw at Justin Harper. I think Wright is able to limit a little of what Harper does since he won't have a significant advantage in either size or athleticism like he typically does. Plus the Dayton centers do a very good job of helping on penetration in the event that Wright gets beat on the dribble. I also expect Wright to make Harper work on the defensive end where he won't be able to free lance for steals and deflections as much. If he leaves Wright he will head to the basket for the alley hoop like a freight train. And if Dayton gets a few highlight reel dunks that tends to make the hoop bigger for the next couple of 3 pt shots. If Wright gets in early foul trouble then Harper could be the deciding factor in the game.
Slight Advantage Richmond
As for the rest of the team I think their is a significant advantage for the Flyers as they have more depth and physicality on their bench to go with superior athleticism. In the last couple of matchups Mooney has had Richmond send 5 guys to the defensive glass to protect getting blistered on the boards and it hasn't helped a ton. Dayton is able to send 4 just as aggressively without getting beat on the break. I think this will once again be a key since Richmond will have to face a set defense on every possession and should struggle to get to 60 points in that situation.
I think the other advantage for the Flyers is that Richmond doesn't like to use a lot of their bench. Xavier was about the only team that didn't falter down the stretch and although they played their starters almost the whole game the reason that probably wasn't as much of an issue is the absurd amount of shooting fouls and how early X was in the bonus each half and the rest that provided their players. Richmond will likely tire as they aren't as likely to get the frequent rests and free points during the game since they average 18 ft attempts per game.
I have a feeling that Richmond will try and control pace but will get hammered on the boards. That will allow Dayton with enough second chances to help their improving fg%. I expect Dayton gets atleast 6 extra offensive boards and out rebounds them by 10+. With the exception of the turd Dayton dropped at Umass when they were admittedly looking past the Minutemen they have improved their play in almost every outing since the first week of December. I failed to see that when they fell at Cintas like all other comers but in that game it took a lot of questionable foul calls and a great performance by Holloway with some real clutch shots over great defense. I like both Dayton and the under in this game since I don't think it's likely that UD goes nuts for 40 in a half although big wins aren't unheard of at home. I like Dayton in the area of 65-59. A 4-7 point win with the winner getting to the mid to upper 60's at best. I'll add my play later.
Comment