UD @ XU -- The Jimmy Carter Classic -- Calling Franchise!!

[Nigel Tufnel]

Seeing X -7/125.

So, what do you think, Franchise? Seems a little high to me, but X is a decent free throw shooting team. Late freebies could help X cover. At the same time, UD could easily win SU. Honestly, I think the line on the side is pretty sharp. I don't see any value in either side. One has to believe UD won't lay another egg like @ UMASS. But, UD does have a mental thing going on with winning @ XU and X is playing much better right now.

I think if I have a lean, its Under. X is killing it on the unders in most of their games. They held a pretty high scoring Gonzaga to 64 @ Gonzaga. The Crosstown Shootout went under by about 20 points. X @ URI total was 142.5...didn't come close.

This will likely be an ugly, rugby style game. Points will be at a premium. Unless one team is just shooting out of their mind....which happens occasionally. But I wouldn't be surprised to see a 65-55 type of game. If Mack has a brain, he will pack in a zone and let UD chuck them up from long range. On offense, X should try to methodically get the ball down low to Frease. UD has an advantage against X everywhere but Holloway and Frease. I look for X to exploit those two mismatches. I don't have a lot of confidence that Gregory will exploit the other three mismatches in his favor.

Another key will be whether Dante Jackson can box out Chris Johnson. Johnson killed Jackson on the boards last year, but, at X, Jackson shot lights out to overcome his defensive shortcomings.

Ultimately, I look for a low scoring, ugly, gross game where both teams struggle to get into the 60's.

My lean is to the under...thoughts?

[Franchise]

I think the line isn't an issue in this game. And although X looked great against URI I think it all comes down to what UD team shows up. If they are aggressive pushing the tempo and getting some mid range jumpers and are active on the boards I think UD has a very good chance to win. Someone needs to knock down some 3's and Luke Fabrizius finally got a couple down last game. He shot 40% from 3 last year and is capable of knocking down 2-3 in a row for a nice boost. Plus when he is in the game he can cause matchup problems since he'll be at center and Freese can't chase him on the perimeter. If X plays man I think they struggle to matchup since UD uses their centers as ball screeners and that will make Freese work harder away from the basket in space. And in man to man Wright and Johnson will have an opportunity to slash for offensive boards which is key to them having a chance. But if X plays an aggressive zone we will probably see a crappy zone offense that will be dependent on atleast 2 guys knocking down multiple 3's since UD has proven they can't effectively get and take mid range jumpers against a zone. It's really perplexing since CJ, PW and JS are very good mid range shooters yet they rarely take them. In the second half against Joe's they did hit several of them. Defensively it will be interesting to see Staten vs Holloway. If staten gets in foul trouble it will really hurt UD and Holloway does a great job of drawing fouls.

My gut tells me X plays zone with Staten in the game since he can't shoot it (especially when Fabrizius isn't on the court) and plays man with Parker and Fabrizius on the court since they will likely have 4 guys that will shoot 3's aggresively with that lineup, yet they won't be the strongest team at driving to the basket with that lineup. UD is the worst shooting team in the conference and must supplement that with solid offensive rebounding to win the game. My gut tells me X wins and if so they cover. But I wouldn't be surprised to see UD get their first win since this is arguably the second time in the last 30 years they have the better players and athletes and their isn't Jordan Crawford to save X. UD shouldn't be wetting themselves since most of the team has 2 DD wins against X (one by 25) but the key will be UD's offense. If UD doesn't break 65 they lose. I think X scores 61-67 and UD is anywhere from 50 to 75 depending on how effective they are pushing transition baskets and shooting the 3. Sorry to waffle on the game but I don't think UD has shown enough consistency from game to game and half to half to back them yet they are talented enough to get the outright win. If their was in game betting available I would say if UD is within 3 at the 10 minute mark of the first half they get the W. If not you will probably know early that they can't score enough to get the W. But I am excited and hopeful and it should be a very exciting game.

[Franchise]

I think the line isn't an issue in this game. And although X looked great against URI I think it all comes down to what UD team shows up. If they are aggressive pushing the tempo and getting some mid range jumpers and are active on the boards I think UD has a very good chance to win. Someone needs to knock down some 3's and Luke Fabrizius finally got a couple down last game. He shot 40% from 3 last year and is capable of knocking down 2-3 in a row for a nice boost. Plus when he is in the game he can cause matchup problems since he'll be at center and Freese can't chase him on the perimeter. If X plays man I think they struggle to matchup since UD uses their centers as ball screeners and that will make Freese work harder away from the basket in space. And in man to man Wright and Johnson will have an opportunity to slash for offensive boards which is key to them having a chance. But if X plays an aggressive zone we will probably see a crappy zone offense that will be dependent on atleast 2 guys knocking down multiple 3's since UD has proven they can't effectively get and take mid range jumpers against a zone. It's really perplexing since CJ, PW and JS are very good mid range shooters yet they rarely take them. In the second half against Joe's they did hit several of them. Defensively it will be interesting to see Staten vs Holloway. If staten gets in foul trouble it will really hurt UD and Holloway does a great job of drawing fouls.

My gut tells me X plays zone with Staten in the game since he can't shoot it (especially when Fabrizius isn't on the court) and plays man with Parker and Fabrizius on the court since they will likely have 4 guys that will shoot 3's aggresively with that lineup, yet they won't be the strongest team at driving to the basket with that lineup. UD is the worst shooting team in the conference and must supplement that with solid offensive rebounding to win the game. My gut tells me X wins and if so they cover. But I wouldn't be surprised to see UD get their first win since this is arguably the second time in the last 30 years they have the better players and athletes and their isn't Jordan Crawford to save X. UD shouldn't be wetting themselves since most of the team has 2 DD wins against X (one by 25) but the key will be UD's offense. If UD doesn't break 65 they lose. I think X scores 61-67 and UD is anywhere from 50 to 75 depending on how effective they are pushing transition baskets and shooting the 3. Sorry to waffle on the game but I don't think UD has shown enough consistency from game to game and half to half to back them yet they are talented enough to get the outright win. If their was in game betting available I would say if UD is within 3 at the 10 minute mark of the first half they get the W. If not you will probably know early that they can't score enough to get the W. But I am excited and hopeful and it should be a very exciting game.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Here's to a good, clean game with no injuries tonight, Franchise!! :beerbang:

I'm rolling with the under tonight....its sitting at 127. I could definitely see one team in the mid 50's and the other in the high 50's to low 60's.

Xavier/UD U 127 -- 2 units.

[Franchise]

This officiating is terrible. If they are going to call touch fouls on one team they should call it both ways. Frease would have fouled out in 5 minutes. Typical of the garbage officiating they get in the A10.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Man, maybe you have a totally different opinion, Franchise, but I thought that was a really well played game by both teams. I wasn't expecting such a high level of play by both teams. They crushed the total. They were both hitting their shots. I wouldn't be surprised if that isn't the highest level of play that you'll find in an A10 game this year.

I know that as a UD fan, its got to be frustrating....but really, Dayton shouldn't hang its head at all tonight. They probably would have beaten any other A10 at their place tonight. They were impressive. Holloway just played out of his mind tonight...not to mention Frease and McLean. That last running jumper Holloway over Staten...couldn't have been defended any better. Jackson couldn't hit the broad side of a barn tonight...other than that...it took everyone else's best effort to squeak out a home win tonight.

If Dayton can play like that the rest of the season, they will be dancing...question has always been, can they keep up that level of play?

Just an amazing game. :thumbs:

[Franchise]

I thought Holloway did play amazing. He shot the ball great while only getting 1 good look. He also did a good job of drawing legit contact. But overall I thought Dayton played much better with their focus on throwing the ball to CW in the low post (something they never do) and taking mid range jumpers that they can make (something else they usually don't do). I thought they battled but unfortunatly the refs seemed to come up with clutch fouls on Dayton when X needed it. - think without the foul discrepancy that UD would have taken control of the game early. CW usually has a problem with fouls but 3 of them were garbage (1st, charge where Frease fell down and the last one where he didn't even make contact) and each half starting 8 to 1 in fouls in a physical game is a joke. What's really frustrating is that eems to be the case in a lot of A10 road games. It may sound like sour grapes but it is so frustating to watch inconsistent and uneven officiating so often cost you games. Especially when the players step up like they did yesterday. Based on the play yesterday I would be surprised if UD doesn't beat X by 20+ in Dayton. Unfortunately we are NIT bound though. This is a very dissappointing season.