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A couple notes on today's game. I think this is a great matchup for the Flyers. Their main weaknesses are a slow pace and a team that has multiple 3 pt shooters. UMass doesn't play that slow and has one player. Typically Gregory's teams have done a great job when there is one main guy to stop on the other team. I expect a rotation of Williams and Spearman and Johnson to dog Gurley the whole game and make all the points he scores tough. Combine that with 2 of the top 8 guys being out for UMass (Traghnam and Correia) and I think is a great spot for the Flyers. They have been playing much better of late as the rotation settled down and they were also tested late in the SLU game which should keep them focused throughout this matchup.
I think UD is able to control UMass and hold them to 60ish points depending on the pace that UMass tries to play at. At the offensive end I think UD is able to rebound very effectively to give themselves multiple second chances and provide the margin of victory. To this point they have not shot the ball effectively as a team which is surprising since they have several players that are quality shooters. I wouldn't be shocked to have them shoot the ball well as a team and have the game get out of control for UMass. UD will have the size and athletic advantages as well as depth and overall talent. Unless Gurley goes for 30 I don't think UMass can keep this close. I think UD's mild disappointments against ETSU and Cincy are still keeping their lines down as this should be atleast 3 points higher. This is a team with a very manageable conference schedule and I expect will separate themselves from the conference along with Richmond and Temple to provide a compelling 3 team race for the title with the edge going to Temple based on toughness and schedule.
I don't think I will be playing on Dayton in their next game against St Joe's as Martelli has been very effective against Gregory and although they are overmatched they will have a solid gameplan that has had success against them. It will also be a look ahead spot with X on deck next saturday. I don't think I will fade the Flyers at UD but I wouldn't be surprised to see a DD line and a single digit victory midweek.
Dayton -2 4 Units
glta
I think UD is able to control UMass and hold them to 60ish points depending on the pace that UMass tries to play at. At the offensive end I think UD is able to rebound very effectively to give themselves multiple second chances and provide the margin of victory. To this point they have not shot the ball effectively as a team which is surprising since they have several players that are quality shooters. I wouldn't be shocked to have them shoot the ball well as a team and have the game get out of control for UMass. UD will have the size and athletic advantages as well as depth and overall talent. Unless Gurley goes for 30 I don't think UMass can keep this close. I think UD's mild disappointments against ETSU and Cincy are still keeping their lines down as this should be atleast 3 points higher. This is a team with a very manageable conference schedule and I expect will separate themselves from the conference along with Richmond and Temple to provide a compelling 3 team race for the title with the edge going to Temple based on toughness and schedule.
I don't think I will be playing on Dayton in their next game against St Joe's as Martelli has been very effective against Gregory and although they are overmatched they will have a solid gameplan that has had success against them. It will also be a look ahead spot with X on deck next saturday. I don't think I will fade the Flyers at UD but I wouldn't be surprised to see a DD line and a single digit victory midweek.
Dayton -2 4 Units
glta
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