Betting against the public...(a question)...

[maddoggie]

hey guys (and gals)...

wasn't sure where to put this question...so I will frame it in the form of a NCAA hoops question.

I was looking at a website that shows 6top books and the percentage of bets that come in on each side. I know that "fading the public" is a way to bet - but I have never solely done that. Looking at the numbers today, if you faded the public on every NCAA game (and NBA) you would have won a lot more than you lost.

Does this rule of thumb generally hold up? Today, the results were almost funny -- the public was off A BUNCH...

Just wondering if anyone has done this (or does this)...I have been fading the public now and again -- but might it be a wise way to bet EVERYTIME?

thanks for your input...

~dan

[Franchise]

I do use that as a factor in my decision making, and for the most part I tend to look at teams on the lower percentage side. But that being said I think the results you saw last night were a result of sample size. From my perspective the public percentages mean less in college hoops or NBA because there isn't a lot of public action in those sports. In a game like Duke/Carolina or UK/Michigan St you would have a public influence but in the great majority of college games the handle isn't that great that a public influence I don't think has a factor. Joe the Plumber isn't playing Lasalle/Providence yesterday. I use those numbers as a more important guide in college football/nfl but I like to play dogs in those sports and they are typically going to be on the lower percentage side most of the time.

[maddoggie]

...thanks Franchise!

Much appreciated...

~md

[TheBeholdah]

i remember starting a similar thread a few years ago. I actually did some research on it and was tracking it, and the public cleans up sometimes as well. I also dont know how accurate those numbers are. i find that worrying about that kind of stuff can cause me to talk myself out of winners due to worrying about being on the public side. Franchise made a great point about the lesser marquee matchups joe the plumber isnt really bothering with.

Vegas did clean up yesterday tho, definately took advantage of bettors being very reactionary after what took place on the first day of those tourneys.
But cap the game yourself, if it was that easy to fade the public blindly there'd be no point in capping the games, and no fun in trying to beat the spreads