Who do you think has a legit shot at a first round upset?

[Kevin]

Who do you think has a legit shot at a first round upset?

Would love to hear your thoughts!

[24]

Georgia Tech and OD seem the most likely culprits.

[Daws1089]

Mizzouri and SDSU are my picks. I love UTEP to win too. Will be on that money line.

[Woody12]

Another tidbit of information is that # 6 and #7 seeds, in the first round, have gone a combined 39-25 (61%) ATS over the past several years.

Got this from the SportsInsights.com newsletter.

Interesting.


I like Murray State as a possible upset over Vandy.

[TheBeholdah]

agree with woody, murray has great chance to win that one

[Daws1089]

Vandy should have been a 5 seed i feel like and Temple should have gotten their 4 seed.

[TheBeholdah]

actually, at this moment my favorite dog is Old Dominion, i think the irish lose some momentum from the layoff and old dom loves to play the slow down style nd's been using. per kenpom, old dom is top 15 in defensive efficiency and and #1 overall in offensive rebounding efficiency. Old Dom should get a lot of boards this game. granted nd plays much better competition, but i think this is a great matchup for old dom and the short line shows that. old dom notched a solid win at gtown this year so they know they can hang with big east team.

[wsox08]

I think Butler got a bad matchup again this year against UTEP and could see UTEP winning but I'll still likely be on Butler. I'll have to check and see my upsets

[FlyersFan]

I think too many people get these upsets in their head before the tourney even starts and then don't look at the matchups. IMO, it's not about who can do damage but what is the matchup. Like beholdah pointed out on ODU. I like ODU's chances a lot as well. They certainly will be in the game the way ND plays.

My points are the following i guess:

1) Teams that play slow deliberate styles are upset potential because they will always leave the other team in the game. Temple and Notre Dame come to mind.

2) Teams that like to play fast versus good defensive teams that will slow the game down usually favors the team that slows things down since it is easier to slow a game down than speed one up (so long as the team playing slow down is good). UNI versus UNLV is one example. You've also seen countless examples with Princeton back in the hey day beating UCLA and almost beating G'Town. And how uncomfortable was Seton hall playing Notre Dame at ND's pace over the weekend?

3) Avoid the "trendy" calls like Siena this year. Siena over OSU last year was predictable as OSU was really inconsistent and Siena was the type of team that gave OSU fits. They have beaten NOBODY this year and they are once again the "trendy" watercooler pick to beat Purdue. I say not a chance. Purdue is still a solid club and i hope that line gets pounded on Siena so i can make some money on Purdue.

4) heard a great point last night. Certain teams just don't lose in the first round under certain coaches. UCLA under Howland is an example. ALWAYS ready to play and everybody and their mom had VCU last year and it just wasn't happening. Other coaches are notorious for losing in the first round and not having their teams ready. Try and isolate those matchups and avoid teams that generally do well the first weekend under certain coaches.

5) look for matchups where teams have had problems with a certain style of play that they are matched up against. I personally think Gonzaga has had problems with teams that defend them hard (in your face type versus soft passive defense...both can be good just 2 different styles) and are physical with them. I think their matchup versus FSU is a bad one and like FSU in that one.


anyhow just some random thoughts.

as for what was mentioned. I think the Murray State thing is another trendy upset gaining momentum that it seems like "is the thing to say" i guess. Im not down with that one. If you look at Murray State's schedule, please find me ONE decent win. So what if they won 30 games. They played LaTech and Cal out of conference (and Cal was short 2 players at the time) and lost both and also lost to an average Western Kentucky team. The rest of their non conference schedule makes VTech's look strong. This IMO is another case of where somebody says something and then the other guy jumps on board and pretty much it becomes everyone saying it and it's another trendy pick rolling down hill. I have yet to see anyone post anything relating to why. People just seem to have latched onto this as the trendy pick and are spitting it out like mad. I think it's a bad matchup for Murray State with Vandy's size inside. IMO they will wear them down in the 2H inside. Vandy is about as complete a team as there is in the field with 3 point shooting, guard play and a bunch of big guys. They have lost 4 games since January 1st and 2 of those were to Kentucky and one was a meaningless SEC tourney game. Murray State has not played a team CLOSE to the caliber of Vandy this year because they haven't played anybody. Phoniest 30 win team in ages in terms of the NCAA tourney. They have ZERO wins against anybody else in the field or even anyone that was remotely close to making the field.

Now the UTEP over Butler play is viable IMO because the matchup is bad and Butler won't run away from anyone IMO. UTEP has the horses. It will depend on how Butler shoots the 3 ball and then what pace the game is played at IMO. Tough one to call but definitely a possibility.

The X/Minny line is strange but then again, Minnesota is one of those teams that underachieved this year and seemed to come to life in the last few games of the season and in the conference tourney. X is a good team but the game is a toss up IMO and that is where the line basically came. Any result there couldn't shock anyone IMO.


probably wont have much time to look at things until wednesday but as always, that is my 2 cents.

[FlyersFan]

actually just had some analysis on in the background and one of them made a great point on Murray State. Everyone is looking for a reason to take Murray State instead of looking for reasons to take Vandy.

I will be on Vandy, especially if the public is siding with Murray State.

ODU beat Georgetown and proved itself in some other games too, which completely legitimizes that pick IMO. To latch on to a Murray State team that has beaten no one is kind of risky IMO.


I did want to ask about Richmond. I didn't see them at all really this year and wanted to see if some of the A-10 lovers on this site have an opinion on how far they can go. I have seen St. Marys and they are a very pedestrian "just get the job done" type team with a very good big man who is a senior i believe. Anyone have a good angle on how far Richmond goes?

[DukiesBaby]

Love looking at the board to find some juicy upsets..

So far my leading candidate for a moneyline upset play is san diego state over tennessee...
san state 3 leading scores 6'7" 6'8" 6'9" also state is very good rebounding team... tenn does not rebound well and havent all year, they have chism inside and then the rest of their game is around their guard play... this matchup could be serious trouble for tennessee in a low scoring game...


other games i am looking into are
#11 seed minnesota over xavier...
#13 Houston over maryland
#11 Washington over marquette
#10 missouri over clemson
#12 Utep over butler


these 5 matchups too me could be good for the underdog i still got some work to do next few days and break them down but at first glance i can make a case for all 5 winning their games out right...


As For the murray state thing.... In my opinion i think they have no shot in beating vandy... vandy Scores points and hangs around with teams like Kentucky... i dont think many of u would bet on murray state beating kentucky, but i think vandy can beat kentucky so u wont find me stretching their... records arent everything when u dont play anyone... Vandy line should be at -9.5 and its not so i feel the books are pushing the murray state "upset" theme and i think Vandy will win double digits with ease....


In my opinion its not worth taking small confrence schools to win or cover out right vs teams who can score alot and play in big confrences... teams like pittsburgh, notre dame, florida, marquette, ohio state, maryland, that dont score alot of points on a regular basis and have good offenses are suspect to the "upset stories" u need nba talent to win championships, and make runs, and teams that dont have that usually dont go far in tourneys.


anyways it is going to be fun and interesting and i wish everyone good luck with their plays lets take it to the man:beerbang:

[Franchise]

I agree with Flyers on Vandy. Their size and ability to get to the line should give them a big advantage

As for any upsets on games that have lines of more than +3 I am going to look closely at Wofford and Houston. Wofford is a very likely play for me due to pace of play and their effectiveness against other BCS teams early in the season on the road. I also like that the game is in Jacksonville so atleast Wisconsin has to travel although Wisky is very well coached.

I also like Houston with Maryland flying across the country. This will be a game where both teams should also feel comfortable with the pace and if Houston can start out shooting it well I think they have the talent to make it an interesting night. They are off till Friday and Penders should attract most of the media attention so his players will hopefully be relaxed. They have had several tight losses but especially so when the games are low scoring.

[Nicky Santoro]

I love taking the points of all the first round games. SU wins I really like Siena and UTEP. Yea, I'm one of those a-holes that thinks Siena has a shot. However, that line is at 4 and I believe the public will pound that line down to 2 or 3. That's when you load up on Purdue. Playing a bracket then I'd take Siena for sure.

[TheBeholdah]

i hear you guys on vandy, going to tread lightly there, they were a team i looked to bet on this year, only faded them once and i lost with georgia in conference tourny.