Tweet
A couple for me. I like the card I have for today but I definitely haven't had the same feel in the last week as I did for the couple weeks before that. The winners just aren't jumping out as me quite as easily.
Miami -1' vs GT 2 units
Miami has played well at home and GT hasn't traveled well. Miami has rebounded the ball pretty well and that will be key tonight. Favors and Lawal have a huge physical advantage inside so Miami must stay out of fould trouble and work hard on the glass. If that happens I think they get the W.
UConn/SU under 145 2 Units
Both teams do have a desire to run but both teams have also played pretty solid D. SU has been great in the zone and UConn doesn't have the shooters to threaten it. Syracuse has stayed within 10 points of this total when playing teams with a faster pace and better shooting (ND and Providence). I think UConn will need to play great D to keep the game close and if it gets out of hand they will still have problems scoring quick and they aren't great at the foul and score near the end of the game. The Providence and UL games had almost no scoring when UConn was intentionally fouling and if SU has a big lead UConn will stop fouling earlier than most teams.
Florida St +5' vs Clemson 2 Units
FSU has done a great job on defense and has managed to win the close games. And even the Duke game they lost by 14 was close till the last few minutes. I expect more of the same against an inconsistent Clemson squad who is showing no signs of having a breakout game. The couple of day break was probably good for FSU.
Dayton -9 vs Charlotte 2 Units
So the 1st place team in the conference is going on the road and grabbing DD? Charlotte has skated by in their last few games by knocking down a couple of clutch 3's late in the games. They have been behind or tied with everyone but temple in their last 5 or 6 games. Even Fordham had them down on Saturday. Dayton seems to have improved their shot selection and London Warren has elevated his play to a new level. Plus this is a revenge game for one of Dayton's worst performances last season at Charlotte that almost cost them a tourney bid. I don't love the spot as a flyer fan but the situations and current form seem to point to a big Flyer W.
Florida +120 vs USC
South carolina has been getting by on Downey and the rep from the UK win. In truth they really haven't played very well at home and their 4-4 record tells the story. Florida on the other hand has managed to fight and compete in all their SEC games. i expect more of the same tonight. Downey possibly being limited is just icing on the cake.
Duke -5' vs UNC
This looks like a trap but I'll bite. UNC got drilled at home by UVA and WF, why not Duke? I think the line is low because of the rivalry and Duke's perceived weakness on the road. Although Duke hasn't played great on the road they only have played a couple. I just don't see UNC winning outright and while both teams will definitely be up for this game because of the rivalry I like a motivated Duke team to get it done against a team that doesn't defend that well on the perimeter and can't shoot it outside the paint.
Nebraska +125 vs Baylor 2 units
Gut feeling - or I'll be able to circle the loser in the first half.
VT -1 @ NC St 2 Units
VT has been on a roll and needs to keep it up to have a chance at the tourney. I am sure their team has seen or heard projections about how they are on the outside looking in and that should help keep their focus. They have brought their effort all season (except the 1H of Miami) and if they do the same should be able to get out with a W tonight. NC St has played hard but inconsistently all season. I don't see a second quality effort again tonight.
Big card for me tonight and we will see how it goes.
Miami -1' vs GT 2 units
Miami has played well at home and GT hasn't traveled well. Miami has rebounded the ball pretty well and that will be key tonight. Favors and Lawal have a huge physical advantage inside so Miami must stay out of fould trouble and work hard on the glass. If that happens I think they get the W.
UConn/SU under 145 2 Units
Both teams do have a desire to run but both teams have also played pretty solid D. SU has been great in the zone and UConn doesn't have the shooters to threaten it. Syracuse has stayed within 10 points of this total when playing teams with a faster pace and better shooting (ND and Providence). I think UConn will need to play great D to keep the game close and if it gets out of hand they will still have problems scoring quick and they aren't great at the foul and score near the end of the game. The Providence and UL games had almost no scoring when UConn was intentionally fouling and if SU has a big lead UConn will stop fouling earlier than most teams.
Florida St +5' vs Clemson 2 Units
FSU has done a great job on defense and has managed to win the close games. And even the Duke game they lost by 14 was close till the last few minutes. I expect more of the same against an inconsistent Clemson squad who is showing no signs of having a breakout game. The couple of day break was probably good for FSU.
Dayton -9 vs Charlotte 2 Units
So the 1st place team in the conference is going on the road and grabbing DD? Charlotte has skated by in their last few games by knocking down a couple of clutch 3's late in the games. They have been behind or tied with everyone but temple in their last 5 or 6 games. Even Fordham had them down on Saturday. Dayton seems to have improved their shot selection and London Warren has elevated his play to a new level. Plus this is a revenge game for one of Dayton's worst performances last season at Charlotte that almost cost them a tourney bid. I don't love the spot as a flyer fan but the situations and current form seem to point to a big Flyer W.
Florida +120 vs USC
South carolina has been getting by on Downey and the rep from the UK win. In truth they really haven't played very well at home and their 4-4 record tells the story. Florida on the other hand has managed to fight and compete in all their SEC games. i expect more of the same tonight. Downey possibly being limited is just icing on the cake.
Duke -5' vs UNC
This looks like a trap but I'll bite. UNC got drilled at home by UVA and WF, why not Duke? I think the line is low because of the rivalry and Duke's perceived weakness on the road. Although Duke hasn't played great on the road they only have played a couple. I just don't see UNC winning outright and while both teams will definitely be up for this game because of the rivalry I like a motivated Duke team to get it done against a team that doesn't defend that well on the perimeter and can't shoot it outside the paint.
Nebraska +125 vs Baylor 2 units
Gut feeling - or I'll be able to circle the loser in the first half.
VT -1 @ NC St 2 Units
VT has been on a roll and needs to keep it up to have a chance at the tourney. I am sure their team has seen or heard projections about how they are on the outside looking in and that should help keep their focus. They have brought their effort all season (except the 1H of Miami) and if they do the same should be able to get out with a W tonight. NC St has played hard but inconsistently all season. I don't see a second quality effort again tonight.
Big card for me tonight and we will see how it goes.