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Shitty Conference Road Favorite
JoePa reminded me of this and it went 3-0-1 last night (should have been 4-0). We'll see how it does. It had 3 SU dog winners in CSUF, JAXST and FAU who dismantled Troy.
For anyone interested it comprises playing on Home Dogs of 5 points or less (5 1/2 to 6 is pushing it and the % decrease but can still find some winners) in the following conferences: MAAC, Big Sky, Big West, Southern, OVC, CAA, Horizon and Sun Belt . Used to include the MVC but not anymore as that conference has gotten bigger and more legit in the past few years. It relates to CONFERENCE GAMES ONLY.
It has generally produced a nice profit the last few years and hit around 65% 2 years ago.
The premise behind it is this:
1) These are ****ball conferences that joe public has no clue about. Most people couldn't even tell you what state most of these schools are in. So Joe Pub looks at the game and sees he can get the 2nd place team in the conference playing at the 9th place team and only has to lay 3 points. Public usually always takes the best team.
2) Vegas and the oddsmakers know this and so they set basically bad lines knowing the public is taking those sides and knowing full well they know nothing about either team. Most of these games are bet using the "standings" page on like espn or yahoo.com. And they make them pay a premium in terms of horrible line value to take them. A lot of these games are "circle" games or limited action games in Vegas a lot of the time because the real gamblers know that the lines are off and would pound the books. Some of these games have like 500.00 limits i have seen. So they take limited action from those that are in the know and meanwhile the public lines up on the road favs like crazy.
3) Most of these gyms are like HS gyms and the dynamic is a lot different in these conferences. Most of them are extremely regional conferences (some 1 and 2 state) where teams may be only 15 minutes apart (CSUF, CSLB, UCI all 15 mins apart....toss in UCSB, CSNorthridge and UCRiverside and you have 6 schools within a couple hours at most). The gyms are loud and teams really get up for the top conference teams or locla rivals when they come to town. The dynamic is drastically different than in a conference like say the big 10 or Big east. Home court tends to matter a lot. Take the game last night between CSLB and CSFullerton. Those schools are 20 minutes apart tops. They compete for the same kids and are huge rivals (especially in baseball). CSLB was a 2 1/2 point road fav and publicly perceived to be the better team. CSFullerton beat them by 10. LBSU had hung with KY, Duke, Clemson and beaten UCLA and Utah while CSUF had struggled a lot. Doesn't matter. In reality the talent level is about the same and CSLB had every bit of Fullerton's eye last night.
4) It stops at around 5-5 1/2 because after that it really gets justified when you see somebody like Murray State favored by like 11 at winless Tennessee State. Murray State won that last night by 21.
So that is the "system" in a nut shell. Just something i discovered a few years back when i was following lines. Lines basically set to catch Joe Public. Obviously sometimes the road Fave wins. BUT.....
If you play it you have to play every game and not pick and choose. It is based on a large volume of games and not some individual subset that someone chooses to play. If it has 6 games, you hold your nose and play all 6. I saw this a lot last year...."i like 4 of those but im opposite on 2"....doesn't work that way if you want to win in the end. And if you find yourself on some of the road faves....the sucker in the mirror may just be you....lol...
So that is basically it if anyone is interested or has played it before. Like anything it is not foolproof and doesn't guarantee anything. But if you had been playing it over the past 3-4 years you would be up a nice chunk of change......:thumbs:
JoePa reminded me of this and it went 3-0-1 last night (should have been 4-0). We'll see how it does. It had 3 SU dog winners in CSUF, JAXST and FAU who dismantled Troy.
For anyone interested it comprises playing on Home Dogs of 5 points or less (5 1/2 to 6 is pushing it and the % decrease but can still find some winners) in the following conferences: MAAC, Big Sky, Big West, Southern, OVC, CAA, Horizon and Sun Belt . Used to include the MVC but not anymore as that conference has gotten bigger and more legit in the past few years. It relates to CONFERENCE GAMES ONLY.
It has generally produced a nice profit the last few years and hit around 65% 2 years ago.
The premise behind it is this:
1) These are ****ball conferences that joe public has no clue about. Most people couldn't even tell you what state most of these schools are in. So Joe Pub looks at the game and sees he can get the 2nd place team in the conference playing at the 9th place team and only has to lay 3 points. Public usually always takes the best team.
2) Vegas and the oddsmakers know this and so they set basically bad lines knowing the public is taking those sides and knowing full well they know nothing about either team. Most of these games are bet using the "standings" page on like espn or yahoo.com. And they make them pay a premium in terms of horrible line value to take them. A lot of these games are "circle" games or limited action games in Vegas a lot of the time because the real gamblers know that the lines are off and would pound the books. Some of these games have like 500.00 limits i have seen. So they take limited action from those that are in the know and meanwhile the public lines up on the road favs like crazy.
3) Most of these gyms are like HS gyms and the dynamic is a lot different in these conferences. Most of them are extremely regional conferences (some 1 and 2 state) where teams may be only 15 minutes apart (CSUF, CSLB, UCI all 15 mins apart....toss in UCSB, CSNorthridge and UCRiverside and you have 6 schools within a couple hours at most). The gyms are loud and teams really get up for the top conference teams or locla rivals when they come to town. The dynamic is drastically different than in a conference like say the big 10 or Big east. Home court tends to matter a lot. Take the game last night between CSLB and CSFullerton. Those schools are 20 minutes apart tops. They compete for the same kids and are huge rivals (especially in baseball). CSLB was a 2 1/2 point road fav and publicly perceived to be the better team. CSFullerton beat them by 10. LBSU had hung with KY, Duke, Clemson and beaten UCLA and Utah while CSUF had struggled a lot. Doesn't matter. In reality the talent level is about the same and CSLB had every bit of Fullerton's eye last night.
4) It stops at around 5-5 1/2 because after that it really gets justified when you see somebody like Murray State favored by like 11 at winless Tennessee State. Murray State won that last night by 21.
So that is the "system" in a nut shell. Just something i discovered a few years back when i was following lines. Lines basically set to catch Joe Public. Obviously sometimes the road Fave wins. BUT.....
If you play it you have to play every game and not pick and choose. It is based on a large volume of games and not some individual subset that someone chooses to play. If it has 6 games, you hold your nose and play all 6. I saw this a lot last year...."i like 4 of those but im opposite on 2"....doesn't work that way if you want to win in the end. And if you find yourself on some of the road faves....the sucker in the mirror may just be you....lol...
So that is basically it if anyone is interested or has played it before. Like anything it is not foolproof and doesn't guarantee anything. But if you had been playing it over the past 3-4 years you would be up a nice chunk of change......:thumbs:
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