XU/Dayton and LSU/MISSST discussion

[FlyersFan]

XU/Dayton-

This is a huge game to both of these teams beyond even first place in the A-10. I am not a Dayton fan. They haven't beaten crap this year for opponents outside of Marquette and check in at a robust 143 in schedule strength. Over half of their wins are over the RPI 150 or worse. I think X is the more complete team and the better team. Dayton doesn't have much inside, IMO, and i think this is a short number. X has won 6 in a row over DU and won last year at Dayton by 6 as 4 point dogs. The only thing keeping me off this game is i think it might be low scoring and Dayton really has to be out for X having lost that many in a row. And with first place in the A-10 on the line and Dayton needing a quality win, i am having a hard time triggering X.

Thoughts?? Nigel?


LSU/MISSST

Another huge game with first place in the SEC west on the line. I am kind of having a hard time with the number. MISSST has been VERY erratic at home lately and had to come from 20 down in the 2nd half to beat an awful Arkansas team at home last saturday....this on the heels of going up 28-18 on OlePiss and proceeding to shoot about 10% the rest of the way in losing at home. They got beat like a Quicknick wager at LSU earlier in the year losing by 24. Now they are a 2 point home favorite? I really want to play MISSST here but still have some reservations. LSU 1-3 in conference as underdogs and MISSST is 13-4 ATS L3 years when revenging an earlier road loss (and 6-2 ATS in conference).

Anyone have a feel for this one?

[FlyersFan]

so everyone is playing these games and nobody has any thoughts on them....:dunno:


this is exactly to my point of why i think there is so little value in posting forums. i see about 7 guys on LSU but not one person has given any inkling why they are on them. everyone is so worried about keeping records. who cares, IMO...the real value is in the "whys" to a play. the worst capper can have a great thought and the best capper can make a bad play. simply posting a team and units is quite frankly worthless and always has been. you have no idea what a guy is thinking. hopefully Nigel sees this and can toss in his input...he is usually a guy that has some good thoughts on the A-10.

the more i see everyone line up on LSU the more im inclined to play MSU. i think if the oddsmaker thought LSU was going to win he would have opened them as a favorite. to me, making MISSST the favorite is telling you the oddsmaker sides with the home team.

but GL!

[Daws1089]

I sort of took the line to be about right given that LSU isn't the best road team, they couldn't open them as favs on the road. Early action has been on LSU as it was +2 and is now pick em some places.


I think a lot of people will be saying oh Xavier won't lose two in a row, but on the road against Dayton as a fav doesn't entice me. I think under 129 is the best play in that game as X cans low it down and we know Dayton plays a slow game. Could be a real defensive battle.

[FlyersFan]

yeah, i have backed off my XU stance pending a Nigel post.....but i really don't see the value in why everyone is jumping on LSU at PK here. SEC is crap and the only legit team they played outside of the SEC was X and they got dummed by 10 at home in that one. Plus they got drummed at UTAH as well. They are phony IMO.

[wsox08]

I agree that the under in the X-Dayton game is probably the best play. I'm staying away from a side in that one since it could really go either way and I would just be guessing in what will probably be a very close game. I would also love to hear what Nigel thinks.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Interesting matchup tonight between X and UD. I know one thing for sure....the crowd at UD Arena tonight is going to be absolutely CRAZY. The hatred that UD and its fans have for Xavier is unbelievable. I think the atmosphere tonight will be fun to watch on tv....the basketball play tonite? It is going to be FUGLY.

Dayton has a pretty deep roster of very athletic guys. They go about 12 deep, so I think they will put constant pressure on Xavier's guards. That could pose a problem for Xavier....especially if Holloway gets into foul trouble. As much as I like Dante Jackson, he is just out of position at the point. Redford is a freshman would won't be able to handle the pressure tonight, so he's out. So that pretty much leaves a ton of pressure on the shoulders of a freshman...playing his first game at UD. At the same time, UD doesn't really trap in its full court pressure. Instead, they put London Warren and Rob Lowery on man to man pressure just to eat up seconds on the shot clock so the offense has to rush its sets.

I wouldn't be surprised to see BJ Raymond, Derrick Brown and CJ Anderson help bring the ball up the court tonight. They are X's most experienced players and will be expected to handle the defensive pressure from the Flyers.

If X can get the ball past half court without turning it over and giving UD easy buckets off the turnover, then I think the tide turns in X's favor. Kenny Frease sprained his ankle Saturday, but he practiced the last two days and should be able to play tonight. The Frease/Love combo should be able to outmuscle Huelsman/Searcy, so I give the edge to Xavier inside. Derrick Brown and Chris Wright will likely offset one another....however, Derrick Brown is from Dayton and is coming off a game where he bore a lot of responsibility for Xavier's loss to Duquense by only hitting 7-15 free throws (he is a good free throw shooter) in a four point loss. This will be Wright's first game against Xavier, so its hard to tell how he will react under the pressure. I would give the experience edge to Brown tonight, plus he will be motivated to make a nice showing in front of the local fans after a subpar performance in Pittsburgh. Charles Little and CJ Anderson would favor Xavier so long as CJ doesn't turn the ball over, which he has been prone to do. BJ Raymond has a slight advantage over Marcus Johnson on experience and BJ has been playing really well of late.

I would give a slight advantage to Dayton on the bench players, mainly because Dayton goes so deep.

In the end, it boils down to turnovers for Xavier. If X can get into its halfcourt sets on offense, I think they win and cover. The seniors are going to have to step up (which they did against Temple and UMass) While I give all the credit in the world to Duquense, well, that was just one of those nights. Duquesne shot 81% from the field in the first half and 73% from the 3 point line....in the end, Xavier whittled the lead down to 3 and ultimately lost by 4. IMHO, if the game had been two more minutes long, X escapes. Why is this relevant to tonight's game? Well, I said UD has good athletes....but as for basketball players? Xavier certainly has the edge. I don't see Dayton shooting 80% for a half tonight. Dayton is prone to long scoring droughts and to speak frankly, their offense is dreadful. London Warren is useless on offense, which means X will be playing 5 defenders on 4 offensive players. X should be able to clog the lane and force UD to hit jumpers to beat them. Personally, I don't think UD has the jumpshooters to do that.

While UD Arena will be crazy tonight, X has some experience playing in hostile arenas....they put on a nice showing earlier this year @ LSU and @ URI. Plus, X has pretty much owned Dayton at UD Arena in recent years. CJ, BJ, Derrick and Love won't be bothered by the UD fans....Holloway? Who knows.

For me, it boils down to whether X can limit its turnovers. If they do that, they can outmuscle UD down low and should have their way. I will likely put a small wager on Xavier. What I do like is the under. I'm not sure if either team will get to 65 points tonight. Wouldn't be surprised if they both aren't in the 50's.

It will exciting tonight....but it won't be pretty.

GO X!

[Daws1089]

I am probably backing off of my LSU play too lol as I talked my own way out of it, but I am taking the stab at LSU +100. I figured its worth a shot at even money. Its only one play and like you said MSU has been weird lately at home.


I kind of want to see what everyones thoughts on Duke/UNC were too. I know the almighty MAJORWVU dude put 50 units on UNC, but the short line has me leaning Duke. UNC is putrid on defense aside from Hansbrough. If duke has a good shooting night then i like their chances even more. At first glance I thought the total was a little low being the back and forth nature of these teams, but in this rivalry sometimes posessions can mean more and I like the under there too. I love unders way too much of the time lol.

[Katidy]

If anybody's interested in my 2 cents worth....

My program (altho' I haven't posted any of it, too lazy....)...Xavier 69 - 63...LSU 75 - 72..

I'm on both X & LSU...

GL all...:cheers:

[FlyersFan]

I kind of want to see what everyones thoughts on Duke/UNC were too. I know the almighty MAJORWVU dude put 50 units on UNC, but the short line has me leaning Duke. UNC is putrid on defense aside from Hansbrough. If duke has a good shooting night then i like their chances even more. At first glance I thought the total was a little low being the back and forth nature of these teams, but in this rivalry sometimes posessions can mean more and I like the under there too. I love unders way too much of the time lol.

UNC has coughed up 78, 77, 92 and 61 (lowly UVA) in conference play this year on the road. Duke has given up 75, 54 (UVA), 44 and 56 at home. I know the trend has been for UNC and road teams in this series, but something tells me Duke gets it back tonight. Since losing to WFU, UNC has played exactly one ranked opponent so im not going to read much into their recent destruction of Virginia x2, Maryland etc......i still think Duke is better defensively, though, they will struggle with hansborough inside IMO.

If you like UNC then you should like the Over and vice versa, IMO. Im staying away as i think there are better plays tonight on the board

[FlyersFan]

screw it, im down on MISSST tonight at -1. LSU has shown me absolutely no reason why they should be loved so much by everyone tonight in this situation. If they prove me wrong then so be it and hats off to them. But this smells like the books getting sucker money on LSU.

and i am playing the Under in the X game, though, everytime i play one of their good Under scenarios they put up 4,000,000 points between the 2 teams (see UC game)

GL!

[Nigel Tufnel]

and i am playing the Under in the X game, though, everytime i play one of their good Under scenarios they put up 4,000,000 points between the 2 teams (see UC game)

GL!

Couldn't agree more....but in that UC game both teams were hitting free throws and scoring points with the clock stopped....doubt that happens tonight. Neither team hitting free throws tonight? Decent chance. One but not the other hitting free throws? Decent chance. BOTH hitting free throws tonight? Nah....

GL!!

I'm going to take a stab at X 63-56.