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I need a quick break from all the paper on my desk, so thought it's never too early to toss this out. I know W2 and Cuse will have some say so figured might as well post it.
It's wayyyyyyyyy to early to start making a field of 65, BUT we have just hit the half way point in most conferences and some a little further ahead. Curious as to what people's thoughts are as to teams that are solidly in and teams that have work to do but can still make it.
ND- i am not sold on this whole notion that the BigEast deserves every team that has a heartbeat. ND has one quality win all year and that was versus Texas and they almost let that one get away. They have an RPI in the low 70's and unless they can muster 2-3 quality wins in the BigEast, enjoy the NIT IMO. 9 of their 12 wins are over the RPI 150 or worse. Typical ND.
Wisconsin- i think they are on the outside looking in for the same reasons as ND. They are heading south and own really only 1 1/2 quality wins all year (Vtech and Michigan). they need to win every remaining home game and steal one on the road, IMO to be considered. RPI of 37 is good but they are 1-7 versus the RPI top 50 and that isn't.
Michigan- wins over UCLA, Duke and Illinois, but not sure how far that can take them right now. They have lost 5 of 6, including being swept by Ohio State and losing at home to Wisconsin. They've beaten NW, IU and Iowa at home and that's it for the big 10 win column. I had them solidly in a couple of weeks ago, but at 14-8 i don't think they're a lock. Their next 2 weeks i think will seal their fate one way or another. Home games versus PSU, Minnesota and MSU then a road game with UConn. They need to win all 3 of those home games and at least be competitive in the UConn game and they should be fine. If not, they become very questionable, IMO. Getting swept by OSU who is another bubble team doesn't help.
OSU- one day i have them in, one day i don't. They really only have 1 good win in the big 10 and that was at michigan. They blew a big chance to increase their chances by giving up 55 points to MSU in the 2H and losing at home. They have wins over IU(2), Michigan(2) and Iowa. They are still a question mark, IMO and upcoming games versus Purdue tomorrow, Minnesota, Illinois and PSU are all musts (at least 3 of those 4). Those are all tournament teams IMO and beating them should solidify a spot. If they lose a couple those i think they are in trouble. That ND win is looking less and less as the days go by and the win over Miami was kind of a fraud win as they were down 15 in the 2H and came back when Miami's best player was ejected and Miami fell apart. RPI of 33 should help and the strength of schedule in the big10 as well.
Arizona- i include them because they currently have the longest tournament streak going and it may come to an end this year at something like 25 years. They went from flatline to life support with the sweep this past weekend. They have some killer losses this year like UAB at home and then chunking the ASU and USC games the way they did in the final minutes. Either one of those wins would have gone a long way in helping the cause. RPI of 62 and wins over KU and Gonzaga...not enough IMO. IF they can sweep the LA schools later this month as well as the Bay area schools they have a chance. Every game in the pac10 is winnable IMO on their 2H league slate except for the Washington game. 5-4 in the 2nd half of the conference and a win in the tourney at staples and i think they sneak in the back door (IF UCLA, USC and Cal/ASU are in those win totals).
Dayton- 20-2 and beaten NOBODY outside of Marquette which was a nice win. They got trashed at an average Creighton this year. Their RPI is 32 but they have 13 wins over the RPI 150 or worse. If they slip up in the slightest they are a lot more bubble material than you might think.
Conferences:
The big10 has the highest SOS in the country among conferences and i think they will be rewarded come tourney time. Illinois, MSU, Purdue, Minnesota should all end up in the dance, PSU is on the bubble but is heading in the right direction and with OSU, Michigan, Northwestern and Wisconsin fighting for 2 remaining spots. Only concern for PSU is they have an awful RPI and it's the worst of any of the teams in consideration at 66. Big10 gets 7 this year, mark it down.
SEC is horse****, especially in the West. IMO there is barely 1 quality team in the West in LSU and losing at home to X didn't help with my opinion of them. I mean congrats on the 229 home games so far this year. IMO they get 4 MAX......maybe 3. UK, Tennessee, Florida and probably LSU.
A-10......probably their usual 2, BUT if someone other than Dayton or X wins the tourney then i think they may have to take both of those schools. I will have to say that Dayton has played a joke of a schedule and their saving grace is that win over Marquette. Getting blown out by an average Creighton squad doesn't help my opinion of them much. I think they are far from a complete basketball team but will make it in based on how they have done in conference and the Marquette win.
Pac10.......really balanced conference this year and maybe one of the most balanced out there. They don't have a great team, but they have 9 good teams out of 10. UCLA, Washington, ASU and Cal are all in right now with USC looking good. I could see anywhere from 4 to 6 teams from this league depending on how USC and Arizona finish out. The Oregons, Stanford and WSU are all toast IMO.
MidMajors: I don't recall a year where there was less MidMajor talk than this one. Most of these appear to be solid 1 bid leagues and even the MVC is down this year.
anyway, just a few thoughts on some teams. will be fun to see what happens in the rest of the season.
It's wayyyyyyyyy to early to start making a field of 65, BUT we have just hit the half way point in most conferences and some a little further ahead. Curious as to what people's thoughts are as to teams that are solidly in and teams that have work to do but can still make it.
ND- i am not sold on this whole notion that the BigEast deserves every team that has a heartbeat. ND has one quality win all year and that was versus Texas and they almost let that one get away. They have an RPI in the low 70's and unless they can muster 2-3 quality wins in the BigEast, enjoy the NIT IMO. 9 of their 12 wins are over the RPI 150 or worse. Typical ND.
Wisconsin- i think they are on the outside looking in for the same reasons as ND. They are heading south and own really only 1 1/2 quality wins all year (Vtech and Michigan). they need to win every remaining home game and steal one on the road, IMO to be considered. RPI of 37 is good but they are 1-7 versus the RPI top 50 and that isn't.
Michigan- wins over UCLA, Duke and Illinois, but not sure how far that can take them right now. They have lost 5 of 6, including being swept by Ohio State and losing at home to Wisconsin. They've beaten NW, IU and Iowa at home and that's it for the big 10 win column. I had them solidly in a couple of weeks ago, but at 14-8 i don't think they're a lock. Their next 2 weeks i think will seal their fate one way or another. Home games versus PSU, Minnesota and MSU then a road game with UConn. They need to win all 3 of those home games and at least be competitive in the UConn game and they should be fine. If not, they become very questionable, IMO. Getting swept by OSU who is another bubble team doesn't help.
OSU- one day i have them in, one day i don't. They really only have 1 good win in the big 10 and that was at michigan. They blew a big chance to increase their chances by giving up 55 points to MSU in the 2H and losing at home. They have wins over IU(2), Michigan(2) and Iowa. They are still a question mark, IMO and upcoming games versus Purdue tomorrow, Minnesota, Illinois and PSU are all musts (at least 3 of those 4). Those are all tournament teams IMO and beating them should solidify a spot. If they lose a couple those i think they are in trouble. That ND win is looking less and less as the days go by and the win over Miami was kind of a fraud win as they were down 15 in the 2H and came back when Miami's best player was ejected and Miami fell apart. RPI of 33 should help and the strength of schedule in the big10 as well.
Arizona- i include them because they currently have the longest tournament streak going and it may come to an end this year at something like 25 years. They went from flatline to life support with the sweep this past weekend. They have some killer losses this year like UAB at home and then chunking the ASU and USC games the way they did in the final minutes. Either one of those wins would have gone a long way in helping the cause. RPI of 62 and wins over KU and Gonzaga...not enough IMO. IF they can sweep the LA schools later this month as well as the Bay area schools they have a chance. Every game in the pac10 is winnable IMO on their 2H league slate except for the Washington game. 5-4 in the 2nd half of the conference and a win in the tourney at staples and i think they sneak in the back door (IF UCLA, USC and Cal/ASU are in those win totals).
Dayton- 20-2 and beaten NOBODY outside of Marquette which was a nice win. They got trashed at an average Creighton this year. Their RPI is 32 but they have 13 wins over the RPI 150 or worse. If they slip up in the slightest they are a lot more bubble material than you might think.
Conferences:
The big10 has the highest SOS in the country among conferences and i think they will be rewarded come tourney time. Illinois, MSU, Purdue, Minnesota should all end up in the dance, PSU is on the bubble but is heading in the right direction and with OSU, Michigan, Northwestern and Wisconsin fighting for 2 remaining spots. Only concern for PSU is they have an awful RPI and it's the worst of any of the teams in consideration at 66. Big10 gets 7 this year, mark it down.
SEC is horse****, especially in the West. IMO there is barely 1 quality team in the West in LSU and losing at home to X didn't help with my opinion of them. I mean congrats on the 229 home games so far this year. IMO they get 4 MAX......maybe 3. UK, Tennessee, Florida and probably LSU.
A-10......probably their usual 2, BUT if someone other than Dayton or X wins the tourney then i think they may have to take both of those schools. I will have to say that Dayton has played a joke of a schedule and their saving grace is that win over Marquette. Getting blown out by an average Creighton squad doesn't help my opinion of them much. I think they are far from a complete basketball team but will make it in based on how they have done in conference and the Marquette win.
Pac10.......really balanced conference this year and maybe one of the most balanced out there. They don't have a great team, but they have 9 good teams out of 10. UCLA, Washington, ASU and Cal are all in right now with USC looking good. I could see anywhere from 4 to 6 teams from this league depending on how USC and Arizona finish out. The Oregons, Stanford and WSU are all toast IMO.
MidMajors: I don't recall a year where there was less MidMajor talk than this one. Most of these appear to be solid 1 bid leagues and even the MVC is down this year.
anyway, just a few thoughts on some teams. will be fun to see what happens in the rest of the season.
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