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I know I got burned by 20 pts. a few days ago by betting the Under in the USD game, but just like I lost against the Spurs with the Nets and geting redemption with the Nuggets last night, I'm looking to do so again here tonight.
When Coach Grier came to this team he stressed DEFENSE. And it showed, the Toreros had averaged about 75 ppg the last three years. They thought they needed to keep scoring with the likes of Gonzaga and St. Mary's to compete in this conference... but they never fared well. This year Grier has told them fighting fire with fire isn't working. This year he's tried water instead and it's worked as they finished 11-3 in conference play. He would know, he's the old assistant coach from Gonzaga. Once a man plays for the champions he knows how to take them down. Grier was at Gonzaga for 10 years. Look at the games against the likes of St. Mary's and Gonzaga this year. Except for the first game, those were their LOWEST scoring games all year... all hitting the Under obviously. This year is the best they've done in conference and overall in a LONG time trust me, and it's with young talent. They went 10-4 in 2003, but other than that they've been a sub .500 team for as long as I can remember... 7+ years. Grier has high energy players who don't get sloppy on defense. Another interesting stat, USD is averaging giving up 11 assists per game. The average is around the conference is 15 per game. That's a big gap after a full season!
San Diego has been able to handle Pepperdine both times they played them in conference play, but both were close wins. Pepperdine shoots a below average 40% on the year and San Diego's defense has an above average 40% shots allowed on the year. Now if you look at their conference play you can see that string of 5 Unders earlier in the year. That's what I call "catching-up" to the public opinion. Oddsmakers were catching up to the new defensive set Grier had established. Everybody thought USD would shoot 70+ every game in conference like they always did, but it didn't happen... 5 games in a row. Well they got 72 against LMU, but LMU is a high school team.
Here's their conference play this year...
03/03/08 Loyola Marymount.......W 86-65------W -20½------O 130½
03/01/08 Pepperdine.................W 77-73------L -13½------O 142½
02/25/08 @ St. Mary's...............L 54-61------W 11------U 129
02/23/08 @ Santa Clara............W 66-62------W 3½------O 117
02/18/08 Gonzaga.....................L 55-59------W 6------U 132
02/16/08 Portland.....................W 78-61------ W -11------O 125½
02/11/08 @ San Francisco........W 73-62------ W -3½------O 126
02/04/08 @ Pepperdine............W 61-58------ L -4------U 146½
02/02/08 @ Loyola Marymount..W 72-48------W -9½------U 130½
01/28/08 St. Mary's...................W 63-55------W 7------U 133
01/26/08 Santa Clara................W 53-51------L -4½------U 123½
01/21/08 @ Portland................ W 64-61------W 1------U 130½
01/19/08 @ Gonzaga.................L 70-80------W 17½------O 132½
Now, I already made the mistake of thinking they wouldn't try and slaughter LMU again last time out. They used it as a confidence boost after that close game against Pepperdine going into the tourney which is at the JCP this year. However, I think USD knows now they need to shut down this poor shooting Pepperdine team if they want to win comfortably. Thanks to the past two Overs the line is left high once again for this game. 3 of the past 4 games at home have been over the current line of 137. One of those games against Pepperdine and the other two were against bottom feeder teams in the WCC. The last two games at home have even hit the 150 mark.
I've learned that when oddsmakers are giving you this sort of comfy feeling about a more than likely shootout, it usually only lasts til halftime... if that. After those 5 Unders, oddsmakers had to stop the sharp betting action on the low scoring games. How did they do this... settling lines like 117 and 125½ and 126. Now after that big jump and including the last two games overs, it's safe to say not many people want to touch the Under in anymore USD games this year, but that's why I like it.
Today I got the total in this game opening at 137½. An hour later the line was at 135. Sharp money pounded the Under, but since it was an early betting day, the books "money makers" started snacking on the Over all day and now I see offshore books have it at 137 again. Now I don't usually use offshore books, but my local line hasn't jumped over 136½ all day so I may tonight. Plus it's still early this month and I'm not eager to be back in the red, so I thinking of a half-bet tonight. I haven't pulled the trigger yet, making sure this is my POD again.
Thoughts and comments welcome...
--
March Starting Bankroll = $5,000
March Current Bankroll = $5,400
--
March Past Results (4-3)
MARCH 1st = GONZAGA BULLDOGS (BB) -6 = WIN +$250
MARCH 2nd = NEW JERSEY NETS +5½ = LOSS -$550
MARCH 3rd = LOYOLA MARYMOUNT/SAN DIEGO - UNDER 130½ = LOSS -$275
MARCH 4th = SUNS/TRAILBLAZERS - UNDER 208½ = WIN +$500
MARCH 5th = OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS (1H) -2½ = LOSS -$275
MARCH 6th = OREGON DUCKS (BB) -5 = WIN +$250
MARCH 7th = DENVER NUGGETS -1 = WIN +$500
When Coach Grier came to this team he stressed DEFENSE. And it showed, the Toreros had averaged about 75 ppg the last three years. They thought they needed to keep scoring with the likes of Gonzaga and St. Mary's to compete in this conference... but they never fared well. This year Grier has told them fighting fire with fire isn't working. This year he's tried water instead and it's worked as they finished 11-3 in conference play. He would know, he's the old assistant coach from Gonzaga. Once a man plays for the champions he knows how to take them down. Grier was at Gonzaga for 10 years. Look at the games against the likes of St. Mary's and Gonzaga this year. Except for the first game, those were their LOWEST scoring games all year... all hitting the Under obviously. This year is the best they've done in conference and overall in a LONG time trust me, and it's with young talent. They went 10-4 in 2003, but other than that they've been a sub .500 team for as long as I can remember... 7+ years. Grier has high energy players who don't get sloppy on defense. Another interesting stat, USD is averaging giving up 11 assists per game. The average is around the conference is 15 per game. That's a big gap after a full season!
San Diego has been able to handle Pepperdine both times they played them in conference play, but both were close wins. Pepperdine shoots a below average 40% on the year and San Diego's defense has an above average 40% shots allowed on the year. Now if you look at their conference play you can see that string of 5 Unders earlier in the year. That's what I call "catching-up" to the public opinion. Oddsmakers were catching up to the new defensive set Grier had established. Everybody thought USD would shoot 70+ every game in conference like they always did, but it didn't happen... 5 games in a row. Well they got 72 against LMU, but LMU is a high school team.
Here's their conference play this year...
03/03/08 Loyola Marymount.......W 86-65------W -20½------O 130½
03/01/08 Pepperdine.................W 77-73------L -13½------O 142½
02/25/08 @ St. Mary's...............L 54-61------W 11------U 129
02/23/08 @ Santa Clara............W 66-62------W 3½------O 117
02/18/08 Gonzaga.....................L 55-59------W 6------U 132
02/16/08 Portland.....................W 78-61------ W -11------O 125½
02/11/08 @ San Francisco........W 73-62------ W -3½------O 126
02/04/08 @ Pepperdine............W 61-58------ L -4------U 146½
02/02/08 @ Loyola Marymount..W 72-48------W -9½------U 130½
01/28/08 St. Mary's...................W 63-55------W 7------U 133
01/26/08 Santa Clara................W 53-51------L -4½------U 123½
01/21/08 @ Portland................ W 64-61------W 1------U 130½
01/19/08 @ Gonzaga.................L 70-80------W 17½------O 132½
Now, I already made the mistake of thinking they wouldn't try and slaughter LMU again last time out. They used it as a confidence boost after that close game against Pepperdine going into the tourney which is at the JCP this year. However, I think USD knows now they need to shut down this poor shooting Pepperdine team if they want to win comfortably. Thanks to the past two Overs the line is left high once again for this game. 3 of the past 4 games at home have been over the current line of 137. One of those games against Pepperdine and the other two were against bottom feeder teams in the WCC. The last two games at home have even hit the 150 mark.
I've learned that when oddsmakers are giving you this sort of comfy feeling about a more than likely shootout, it usually only lasts til halftime... if that. After those 5 Unders, oddsmakers had to stop the sharp betting action on the low scoring games. How did they do this... settling lines like 117 and 125½ and 126. Now after that big jump and including the last two games overs, it's safe to say not many people want to touch the Under in anymore USD games this year, but that's why I like it.
Today I got the total in this game opening at 137½. An hour later the line was at 135. Sharp money pounded the Under, but since it was an early betting day, the books "money makers" started snacking on the Over all day and now I see offshore books have it at 137 again. Now I don't usually use offshore books, but my local line hasn't jumped over 136½ all day so I may tonight. Plus it's still early this month and I'm not eager to be back in the red, so I thinking of a half-bet tonight. I haven't pulled the trigger yet, making sure this is my POD again.
Thoughts and comments welcome...
--
March Starting Bankroll = $5,000
March Current Bankroll = $5,400
--
March Past Results (4-3)
MARCH 1st = GONZAGA BULLDOGS (BB) -6 = WIN +$250
MARCH 2nd = NEW JERSEY NETS +5½ = LOSS -$550
MARCH 3rd = LOYOLA MARYMOUNT/SAN DIEGO - UNDER 130½ = LOSS -$275
MARCH 4th = SUNS/TRAILBLAZERS - UNDER 208½ = WIN +$500
MARCH 5th = OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS (1H) -2½ = LOSS -$275
MARCH 6th = OREGON DUCKS (BB) -5 = WIN +$250
MARCH 7th = DENVER NUGGETS -1 = WIN +$500
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