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This is a Cusefan special here, but curious what people's thoughts were on certain teams/conferences. Play wraps up in most of the garbage conferences this coming Saturday, so this is the last week of play for greats like the MAAC, Sun Belt, BigSouth, Patriot, Horizon, Ohio Valley, Southern and even the MVC.
I think UAZ punched their ticket today with the win over WSU at WSU. They have 4 games left and have to split but get a freebie at OREST and then have the LA schools coming to the desert. With their schedule and RPI .500 in the Pac10 should do it for sure. Especially since the losing streak coincides with the loss of their PG Wise. Pac10 will get 6 teams and maybe 7 (call me crazy). That is by far the toughest conference from top to bottom. Outside of OREST there are no free wins even at home in that league.
DRAKE punched their ticket today with a win over BUTLER, if their was any doubt. I really don't think the MVC is a 2 bid league this year, though. ILLST is 2nd and doesn't have a quality win to its name (Cincy is a stretch, IMO)
A-10 this week proved it's a 1 bid league, IMO. Rhode Island's 20-7 is phony and they just took it in the ass twice at home this week in games they needed to win for the resume.
KENTST went a long way in solidifying a spot for sure with a road win at StMary's. 22-7 but really no quality wins other than that one. But i don't see how you can include StMary's without including KENTST now and i think StMary's is going to get in which means KENTST should as well.
WAC took a beating on Saturday and IMO is a 1 bid league i don't care how many phony 20 win teams you have. When first place Boise gets destroyed on its home floor by Sienna that says a lot about that conference. NEV not even competitive at SIU, HAW gets waxed by freeking UCRiverside. 1 Bid, enjoy the fight for it guys.
SOALA should have cemented a spot barring a collapse with the sweep of WKY and a win on the slate over MISSST. WKY on the other hand i think is very suspect. Lost both games to the only decent team by a mile in their league in SOALA, and no quality wins on their slate. They define "bubble team", IMO, and as stupid as this ESPN bracket **** is, they are one of the few teams that could have used a bracket buster matchup against a team like St.Mary's/Kent/Butler etc.....but they didn't play one.
BAYLOR.....they are going to broadcast that win in November over ND loudly. They did beat KST tonight at home, but other than that they haven't beaten anyone other than a very suspect TXAM team that i am still trying to figure out how they are ranked. I think they need to take care of business and win 2 of their next 4 games and then win a game in the tourney over somebody decent. I think they are going to be one of the teams scraping for one of the last spots on Selection Sunday unless they get hot. Games left at Colorado and TortillaTech, then home vs. Mizzou and TxAM. Probably will end up getting a bid in the end, but losing 6 of L8 doesn't help.
OlePISS...once was a lock for the tourney, now have lost 5 of L7 and one of those wins was over Presbyterian. I personally think they need to win 3 of L4 conference games and then win a conference tourney game or maybe even 2. Signature win is probably Clemson if there is one.
ARK....same boat as OlePiss, IMO. Has to win 3 of L4 conference games and then win a conference tourney game or 2. SEC just isn't all that solid this year outside of Tennessee and maybe Vandy and MISSST. Their signature win is over BAY at BAY i believe, which may be a plus if they are one of the last teams battling for a spot with BAY.
Mountain West Conference........is a 1 bid league, IMO, unless BYU loses the conference tourney. UNLV hasn't beaten anyone this year and their only marquee wins are over BYU and UNM in conference play. Then they go on the road to BYU and lose by 30+. I do think they probably give BYU a bid based on a close game vs. UNC and Michigan State and a win over Louisville, though, Louisville wasn't the same team they are now. Plus they will most likely have won the conference.
UMD............wow...are they working hard on not making the tourney. A bad home loss vs. VTECH this week when they blew a 10 point 2H lead and then the road loss to Miami(fl)....how far does that win at UNC take them because they haven't beaten anyone outside of that game. I really think they have a lot of work to do and the ACC is maybe even a 3 bid league this year (duke, clemson and UNC). They have to beat Clemson at home and win one of their 2 road games, then make a little noise in the ACC tourney, IMO to have a shot. If not Hello NIT.
BigEast......i honestly think they end up getting 8 teams in unless somebody collapses out of the WVU/PITT/MARQ/SYR stable. Maybe even 9 with Villanova coming on. Problem is unlike the Pac10, the big east is top heavy. The bottom half of the big east is as bad as the WAC, IMO. So lots of free wins. Bad losses like SYR at SoFLA may come back to haunt them.
one thing helping the power conferences is that i really don't think the "mid-majors" are going to have that many teams to offer other than if conference tourney upsets occur. In years past the MVC may have gotten 3-4 teams....they are 2 tops this year and the only way they get the 2nd team is based on past performance. I think that barring upsets we are going to see teams like a 19-12 Arkansas team get in where they may not have in year's past. but then again, it all depends on the ability of the Drakes, Butlers, KentStates, SOALA's BYU's to win their conference tourneys.
and finally....................
my NIT-eyes. I really don't think they are a NCAA caliber team and the loss to IU at home last week+ ago really hurt. They absolutely must beat both Wisconsin (Sunday) and then Purdue in a week and a half to have any hopes. Then i think they have to make the semis of the big10 tourney. Very close road losses at Tennessee and UNC and win over Syracuse help. But losing a 10 point lead and getting wallopped by Butler by 20 doesn't help, nor does getting pasted by TexasAM. They are another team that right now is out, but can certainly play their way in during the next 2+ weeks.
just some random thoughts. way too much to cover and im not into making a "64 team field" in advance because it really is useless (though probably fun) and changes daily as evidenced by a team like OSU who is out now but could very well be well in after the next 10 days.
getting to be crunch time and i need a break and im done gambling till the tourney but still love this time of the year...:thumbs:
I think UAZ punched their ticket today with the win over WSU at WSU. They have 4 games left and have to split but get a freebie at OREST and then have the LA schools coming to the desert. With their schedule and RPI .500 in the Pac10 should do it for sure. Especially since the losing streak coincides with the loss of their PG Wise. Pac10 will get 6 teams and maybe 7 (call me crazy). That is by far the toughest conference from top to bottom. Outside of OREST there are no free wins even at home in that league.
DRAKE punched their ticket today with a win over BUTLER, if their was any doubt. I really don't think the MVC is a 2 bid league this year, though. ILLST is 2nd and doesn't have a quality win to its name (Cincy is a stretch, IMO)
A-10 this week proved it's a 1 bid league, IMO. Rhode Island's 20-7 is phony and they just took it in the ass twice at home this week in games they needed to win for the resume.
KENTST went a long way in solidifying a spot for sure with a road win at StMary's. 22-7 but really no quality wins other than that one. But i don't see how you can include StMary's without including KENTST now and i think StMary's is going to get in which means KENTST should as well.
WAC took a beating on Saturday and IMO is a 1 bid league i don't care how many phony 20 win teams you have. When first place Boise gets destroyed on its home floor by Sienna that says a lot about that conference. NEV not even competitive at SIU, HAW gets waxed by freeking UCRiverside. 1 Bid, enjoy the fight for it guys.
SOALA should have cemented a spot barring a collapse with the sweep of WKY and a win on the slate over MISSST. WKY on the other hand i think is very suspect. Lost both games to the only decent team by a mile in their league in SOALA, and no quality wins on their slate. They define "bubble team", IMO, and as stupid as this ESPN bracket **** is, they are one of the few teams that could have used a bracket buster matchup against a team like St.Mary's/Kent/Butler etc.....but they didn't play one.
BAYLOR.....they are going to broadcast that win in November over ND loudly. They did beat KST tonight at home, but other than that they haven't beaten anyone other than a very suspect TXAM team that i am still trying to figure out how they are ranked. I think they need to take care of business and win 2 of their next 4 games and then win a game in the tourney over somebody decent. I think they are going to be one of the teams scraping for one of the last spots on Selection Sunday unless they get hot. Games left at Colorado and TortillaTech, then home vs. Mizzou and TxAM. Probably will end up getting a bid in the end, but losing 6 of L8 doesn't help.
OlePISS...once was a lock for the tourney, now have lost 5 of L7 and one of those wins was over Presbyterian. I personally think they need to win 3 of L4 conference games and then win a conference tourney game or maybe even 2. Signature win is probably Clemson if there is one.
ARK....same boat as OlePiss, IMO. Has to win 3 of L4 conference games and then win a conference tourney game or 2. SEC just isn't all that solid this year outside of Tennessee and maybe Vandy and MISSST. Their signature win is over BAY at BAY i believe, which may be a plus if they are one of the last teams battling for a spot with BAY.
Mountain West Conference........is a 1 bid league, IMO, unless BYU loses the conference tourney. UNLV hasn't beaten anyone this year and their only marquee wins are over BYU and UNM in conference play. Then they go on the road to BYU and lose by 30+. I do think they probably give BYU a bid based on a close game vs. UNC and Michigan State and a win over Louisville, though, Louisville wasn't the same team they are now. Plus they will most likely have won the conference.
UMD............wow...are they working hard on not making the tourney. A bad home loss vs. VTECH this week when they blew a 10 point 2H lead and then the road loss to Miami(fl)....how far does that win at UNC take them because they haven't beaten anyone outside of that game. I really think they have a lot of work to do and the ACC is maybe even a 3 bid league this year (duke, clemson and UNC). They have to beat Clemson at home and win one of their 2 road games, then make a little noise in the ACC tourney, IMO to have a shot. If not Hello NIT.
BigEast......i honestly think they end up getting 8 teams in unless somebody collapses out of the WVU/PITT/MARQ/SYR stable. Maybe even 9 with Villanova coming on. Problem is unlike the Pac10, the big east is top heavy. The bottom half of the big east is as bad as the WAC, IMO. So lots of free wins. Bad losses like SYR at SoFLA may come back to haunt them.
one thing helping the power conferences is that i really don't think the "mid-majors" are going to have that many teams to offer other than if conference tourney upsets occur. In years past the MVC may have gotten 3-4 teams....they are 2 tops this year and the only way they get the 2nd team is based on past performance. I think that barring upsets we are going to see teams like a 19-12 Arkansas team get in where they may not have in year's past. but then again, it all depends on the ability of the Drakes, Butlers, KentStates, SOALA's BYU's to win their conference tourneys.
and finally....................
my NIT-eyes. I really don't think they are a NCAA caliber team and the loss to IU at home last week+ ago really hurt. They absolutely must beat both Wisconsin (Sunday) and then Purdue in a week and a half to have any hopes. Then i think they have to make the semis of the big10 tourney. Very close road losses at Tennessee and UNC and win over Syracuse help. But losing a 10 point lead and getting wallopped by Butler by 20 doesn't help, nor does getting pasted by TexasAM. They are another team that right now is out, but can certainly play their way in during the next 2+ weeks.
just some random thoughts. way too much to cover and im not into making a "64 team field" in advance because it really is useless (though probably fun) and changes daily as evidenced by a team like OSU who is out now but could very well be well in after the next 10 days.
getting to be crunch time and i need a break and im done gambling till the tourney but still love this time of the year...:thumbs:
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