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Well NCAA has treated me well so far this year fellas hitting 75%. Not sure if this will be my POD, but here's a matchup I was looking at last night and it is starting to become very appetizing. A small SEC showdown.
Mississippi St. @ Ole Miss (-2)
The facts...
- Miss St. smacked the Rebels in the face with a 20 point victory at home earlier this year. Now, everybody knows the home team usually takes this one, (5-0 SU & ATS in last 3 years) and this is also a revenge spot for the Rebels.
- Miss St. shot 69% in the 2nd half to pull away from the Rebels after only being up 7 at halftime. Why did they shoot 69%... well I think I've found a few reasons why.
1) Jamont Gordon vs. Chris Warren
- These are the point guards for Miss St. and Ole Miss respectively.
--> Gordon is 6'4" and Warren is 5'10"
- Gordon is coming off his lowest scoring performance last time out in over 2 months. He scored 9 points, compared to his average of 17.7 ppg.
- More importantly maybe is the fact that Warren can't defend. He's can be seen as one of the main reasons why Ole Miss is 210th in the nation in 3-point FG% defense.
- Warren is the Rebs best player and will get 30+ minutes on Gordon tonight despite being outweighed by 60 lbs and 6" shorter.
2) Ole Miss has 2 big men that get time... that's it.
- With this big mismatch at the point it actually hurts them more in the paint. Gordon is going to have a view over Warren all night to exploit opportunities in the paint.
- Gordon's low score last game was due to him passing more inside (Vernardo & Rhodes). He's averaging 8 assists per game over the past 4 games, compared to his rising average of 4.7 assists per game on the season.
--> Vernardo & Rhodes were 16 for 19 combined shooting in the last matchup between these two. Total domination in the paint.
- If the Rebels two big men (Curtis & Williams) get in foul trouble that can mean big problems for the Rebs. Of their top 7 leading minute grabbers (15+ mpg) they are the only two who aren't guards, and the only two over 6'5". Both sizing in at 6'8". Not surprisingly, they are the only two players averaging over 5 rebounds a game.
--> Both were in foul trouble in the previous matchup this year.
3) Ole Miss has dropped 6 of it's last 7 SEC games.
- So does Miss St. do defense then? You bet. A couple key national rankings.
--> Ranked 2nd FG% defense
--> Ranked 12th in rebounding margin
Just some thoughts so let me know what you guys think. Betting the Bulldogs to win SU seems like a solid wager tonight. Comments and questions are welcome.
--
February Starting Bankroll = $5,000
February Current Bankroll = $5,650
--
February Posted Results (11-6)
FEBRUARY 1st = SACRAMENTO KINGS +3 = WIN +$500
FEBRUARY 2nd = MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES +8 = LOSS -$550
FEBRUARY 3rd = NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -11½ = LOSS -$550
FEBRUARY 4th = MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES +6½ = WIN +$500
FEBRUARY 5th = CLEVELAND CAVALIERS -2½ = LOSS -$550
FEBRUARY 6th = NO PLAY POSTED
FEBRUARY 7th = INDIANA HOOSIERS (BB) -1½ = WIN +$250
FEBRUARY 8th = ORLANDO MAGIC -PK = LOSS -$550
FEBRUARY 9th = SACRAMENTO KINGS +8 = WIN +$250
FEBRUARY 10th = NO PLAY POSTED
FEBRUARY 11th = SAN DIEGO TOREROS (BB) ML -160 = WIN +$250
FEBRUARY 12th = KENTUCKY WILDCATS (BB) +4½ = LOSS -$275
FEBRUARY 13th = ORLANDO MAGIC -5½ = WIN +$500
FEBRUARY 14th = PHOENIX SUNS -7 = WIN +$250
FEBRUARY 15th = PENNSYLVANIA QUAKERS (BB) +4½ = LOSS -$275
FEBRUARY 16th = BYU COUGARS (BB) -6 = WIN +$250
FEBRUARY 17th = UCLA BRUINS (BB) -5 = WIN +$200
FEBRUARY 18th = SAN DIEGO TOREROS (BB) +7½ = WIN +$250
FEBRUARY 19th = CREIGHTON BLUE JAYS (BB) -5 = WIN +$200
Mississippi St. @ Ole Miss (-2)
The facts...
- Miss St. smacked the Rebels in the face with a 20 point victory at home earlier this year. Now, everybody knows the home team usually takes this one, (5-0 SU & ATS in last 3 years) and this is also a revenge spot for the Rebels.
- Miss St. shot 69% in the 2nd half to pull away from the Rebels after only being up 7 at halftime. Why did they shoot 69%... well I think I've found a few reasons why.
1) Jamont Gordon vs. Chris Warren
- These are the point guards for Miss St. and Ole Miss respectively.
--> Gordon is 6'4" and Warren is 5'10"
- Gordon is coming off his lowest scoring performance last time out in over 2 months. He scored 9 points, compared to his average of 17.7 ppg.
- More importantly maybe is the fact that Warren can't defend. He's can be seen as one of the main reasons why Ole Miss is 210th in the nation in 3-point FG% defense.
- Warren is the Rebs best player and will get 30+ minutes on Gordon tonight despite being outweighed by 60 lbs and 6" shorter.
2) Ole Miss has 2 big men that get time... that's it.
- With this big mismatch at the point it actually hurts them more in the paint. Gordon is going to have a view over Warren all night to exploit opportunities in the paint.
- Gordon's low score last game was due to him passing more inside (Vernardo & Rhodes). He's averaging 8 assists per game over the past 4 games, compared to his rising average of 4.7 assists per game on the season.
--> Vernardo & Rhodes were 16 for 19 combined shooting in the last matchup between these two. Total domination in the paint.
- If the Rebels two big men (Curtis & Williams) get in foul trouble that can mean big problems for the Rebs. Of their top 7 leading minute grabbers (15+ mpg) they are the only two who aren't guards, and the only two over 6'5". Both sizing in at 6'8". Not surprisingly, they are the only two players averaging over 5 rebounds a game.
--> Both were in foul trouble in the previous matchup this year.
3) Ole Miss has dropped 6 of it's last 7 SEC games.
- So does Miss St. do defense then? You bet. A couple key national rankings.
--> Ranked 2nd FG% defense
--> Ranked 12th in rebounding margin
Just some thoughts so let me know what you guys think. Betting the Bulldogs to win SU seems like a solid wager tonight. Comments and questions are welcome.
--
February Starting Bankroll = $5,000
February Current Bankroll = $5,650
--
February Posted Results (11-6)
FEBRUARY 1st = SACRAMENTO KINGS +3 = WIN +$500
FEBRUARY 2nd = MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES +8 = LOSS -$550
FEBRUARY 3rd = NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -11½ = LOSS -$550
FEBRUARY 4th = MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES +6½ = WIN +$500
FEBRUARY 5th = CLEVELAND CAVALIERS -2½ = LOSS -$550
FEBRUARY 6th = NO PLAY POSTED
FEBRUARY 7th = INDIANA HOOSIERS (BB) -1½ = WIN +$250
FEBRUARY 8th = ORLANDO MAGIC -PK = LOSS -$550
FEBRUARY 9th = SACRAMENTO KINGS +8 = WIN +$250
FEBRUARY 10th = NO PLAY POSTED
FEBRUARY 11th = SAN DIEGO TOREROS (BB) ML -160 = WIN +$250
FEBRUARY 12th = KENTUCKY WILDCATS (BB) +4½ = LOSS -$275
FEBRUARY 13th = ORLANDO MAGIC -5½ = WIN +$500
FEBRUARY 14th = PHOENIX SUNS -7 = WIN +$250
FEBRUARY 15th = PENNSYLVANIA QUAKERS (BB) +4½ = LOSS -$275
FEBRUARY 16th = BYU COUGARS (BB) -6 = WIN +$250
FEBRUARY 17th = UCLA BRUINS (BB) -5 = WIN +$200
FEBRUARY 18th = SAN DIEGO TOREROS (BB) +7½ = WIN +$250
FEBRUARY 19th = CREIGHTON BLUE JAYS (BB) -5 = WIN +$200
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