PreSeason A10 Team Capsules

[Nigel Tufnel]

Preseason Predicted 1st Place A10...Ladies and Gentlemen, YOUR Xavier Musketeers...

XAVIER
Last year: 25-9 (13-3), 1st Place
A-10 Regular Season Champions; NCAA, 2nd Round

COACH
Sean Miller 4th year (4th overall)
Record at Xavier: 63-32 (63-32 overall; 66.3% winning percentage)

ROSTER
*1 Josh Duncan SR F 6-9 238 Cincinnati, OH
2 Adrion Graves R-FR WG 6-4 201 Cincinnati, OH
4 Charles Bronson R-JR C/F 6-9 232 Philadelphia, PA/East Carolina/Redlands (OK) CC
5 Derrick Brown R-SO F 6-8 225 Dayton, OH
11 B.J. Raymond JR G-F 6-6 226 Toledo, OH
20 C.J. Anderson R-JR G/F 6-6 220 Cincinnati, OH
*24 Drew Lavender R-SR PG 5-7 153 Columbus, OH/Oklahoma
25 Dante Jackson FR G 6-5 195 Greenfield, OH
31 Jason Love SO PF 6-9 255 Philadelphia, PA
*34 Stanley Burrell SR WG 6-3 205, Indianapolis, IN

*Returning starters

OVERVIEW

Xavier lost three starters from a team that almost beat No. 1 Ohio State in NCAA tournament, but the program returns some of the top talent in the A-10 and the Musketeers look to repeat as regular-season champions.

Xavier also looks to be a much different team. The starting frontcourt of bruising 6-9 center Brandon Cole, 6-10 big forward Justin Doellman and rugged 6-6 wing forward Justin Cage is gone. The new edition of Xavier is smaller upfront and will be more reliant on a slashing, attacking style of basketball.

The big unknown is how long it will take for the refurbished frontcourt to round into form and how well Xavier will handle the more powerful A-10 frontlines. If the Musketeers hold their own on the boards and muster their fair share of points in the paint, Xavier will be in terrific shape.

Coach Sean Miller, now in his 4th year, doesn’t have to worry much about an experience-rich backcourt. Former McDonald’s All-American Drew Lavender is one of the best point guards in the nation and Stanley Burrell is a terrific shooter, though he did struggle as a junior. Xavier’s starting guards are arguably the finest pair in the league.

DEPARTED PLAYERS

Justin Doellman – Kentucky native, named to the Atlantic 10 First Team, capped off a terrific four-year career with a superb finale. The 6-9 forward presented a mismatch for almost every opponent. He could shoot (36% 3PG) or pass (57 assists) over smaller foes or take bigger defenders off the dribble. Doellman was also a dangerous off-the-ball defender, racking up 39 blocks and 30 steals, often at key moments. As a senior, he scored a team-leading and personal best 13.7 points a game while averaging 5.5 boards.

Justin Cage – The other Justin was every bit as important as Doellman, but in different ways. The tough-minded Cage was one of the best defenders in the A-10, often guarding the other team’s top scorer. He was also a tenacious offensive rebounder who always seemed to be in the right spot. When his team needed it, Cage was a clutch performer who could deliver the points (10.5 ppg), mostly on high-percentage shots near the basket. He shot 56.7% from the field and even dropped in 13 treys (38.2% 3PG) on unsuspecting defenders. In his best game ever, Cage tallied a career-high 25 points to lead Xavier in a near-upset win over heavily favored Ohio State in the NCAA Tournament. Cage was the glue who held together several fine Xavier teams over the past four years.

Brandon Cole – Burly 6-8 forward entered the starting lineup in late January and solidified Xavier’s interior game. Cole handled the dirty laundry so more skilled teammates would not have to soil their hands. He scored an occasional bucket (5.8 ppg, 51.6% FG), hit the glass (4.7 rpg) and supplied stout defense in the post. His toughness and physical presence will be missed.

Johnny Wolf – Point guard from Cincinnati, stuck in a reserve role, transferred after his second year. Wolf showed promise as a freshman, but the arrival of Lavender scotched his goal of obtaining more time. In limited action, Wolf made good decisions (61 assists to 19 turnovers) and shot the ball well (41.9% 3PG). Arguably the best backup point guard in the league, Wolf could have started for plenty of teams – including some in the A-10 – and he’ll eventually get that chance at UNC-Wilmington.

RETURNING PLAYERS

Drew Lavender – The transfer from Oklahoma took a few months to shake of the rust and adapt to his teammates. Once Lavender settled in, he sparkled like a pink diamond. He ran the offense with near-perfection (4.8 apg), dished out as many as 9 assists in five different games and rarely turned the ball over (2.88 assist-to-turnover ratio).

When he wasn’t carving up defenses with his passing and penetration, Lavender was raining down 3-pointers (45% 3PG), especially when defenders ran under screens (message to opponents: don’t). He dropped in 31 points (7-8 treys) in a blowout win vs. Charlotte and he racked up 27 points (5-7 treys) in a victory over Dayton.

Lavender also generated plenty of offense with his defense (45 steals). He embarrassed more than a few point guards by picking their pockets like an expert thief. It was amazing to watch the virtuoso 5-7 guard in action. For a two-month stretch he played as well as any point guard who’s ever suited up in the A-10.

What to do for an encore? The fifth-year senior will be matched up with younger and less experienced teammates after heavy graduation losses. He’ll be the main focus of opposing defenses. If Lavender cannot trust his teammates as much, his production could suffer. Don’t count on it, though. The Musketeers are still as talented and athletic as any team in the league. Xavier will be smaller but quicker and perhaps better suited to a faster-paced game.

If Lavender can play his game and not worry so much about scoring, the odds of a repeat performance are high. That’s why Lavender is a favorite for A-10 Player of the Year. “I look at Drew as being very ready to have a special season,” Miller told the Cincinnati Enquirer.

Stanley Burrell – The senior shooting guard was named to the A-10’s Third Team based more on reputation than actual performance. By many measures, his third season was arguably his worst. His scoring average fell to 12.4 points from 14.4 points and his 3-point shooting slipped to 35.7% from 40%. Even though he reached double figures 24 times, Burrell also took plenty of shots to get there. What’s worse, he failed to show up in some big games. Burrell ended the season in a funk, with zero points in Xavier’s NCAA win over BYU and just 3 points in the season-ending loss to Ohio State.

It’s hard to pinpoint the source of Burrell’s poorer play. He’s quick and strong, versatile and aggressive, a player who craves center stage. He even started the season off with a bang, lighting up Villanova for 26 points in a key early-season win. At that point Burrell appeared ready for a super season. All he had to do was score and let Lavender run the offense. Yet his production soon grew erratic. As his shooting slump continued, he seemed to lose confidence and his poor shooting form became hard to ignore. Burrell still shoots quickly and off-balance, fading away or falling to the side after he releases his shot. He does himself no favors.

It’s a tribute to Burrell that he did not let his periodic slumps hurt the team. He attacked the basket more often and got to the free-throw line, where he’s a 79% shooter. He also delivered plenty of assists (83) and played the best defense of his career. Yet the Musketeers need more from Burrell if Xavier wants to win the A-10 regular-season crown again. He’s got First-Team talent, but reputation alone is not going win him any more accolades. There’s no reason to expect a repeat performance, however, so don’t expect opposing defenders to pay Burrell any less respect.

Josh Duncan – The 6-9 forward is one of the most talented players in the A-10, but persistent health problems have prevented him from tapping his full potential. Hobbled by back and ankle injuries, Duncan (9.3 ppg, 88% FT) missed four games and averaged just 20 minutes a contest. He mostly hung around the perimeter, taking more than half the shots from behind arc (38% 3PG). He didn’t help much with interior defense and rebounding, either. Duncan grabbed just 3.4 boards a game – a pittance for a player with his size and strength – and he blocked only 9 shots. Although he can dunk easily enough, Duncan is not especially quick off his feet.

If he ever gets fully healthy, Duncan could be a force. He’s a fine shooter and passer and dribbles fairly well for his size. While he’ll never be a dominant producer in the paint, few defenders in the A-10 can match up with him physically. Entering his final season, though, Duncan has to be viewed as a question mark. He only played 20 minutes once in the last 10 games and his scoring averaged a meager 5.3 points in the stretch run. Sean Miller called Duncan an X factor before last season. He’s still an X factor.

Derrick Brown – Rising sophomore (6.3 ppg, 4.6 rpg) is one of the most exciting players in the A-10, and it’s only a matter of time before he achieves All-Conference status. A virtual dunking machine, the left-handed Brown hit an amazing 70.6% of his shots as a redshirt freshman, often on fastbreak jams, soaring alley-oops and one-handed putbacks. He even showed glimpses of an outside touch, hitting 4 of 8 treys.

An expanded offense is exactly what opponents should expect from Brown in his second season. An inch taller and more muscular, he’ll play a larger role and could become a featured player. Brown has the quickness and body control to score down low and he handles the ball well enough to take some defenders off the dribble. What might take time is for Brown and C.J. Anderson to mesh. Both are athletic slashers who do their damage closer to the basket. Brown has shown proper deference to older teammates, but he can’t be shy.

More on X to follow....

[Nigel Tufnel]

Xavier continued...

RETURNING PLAYERS

Derrick Brown continued...

Even if he doesn’t become a big scorer right away, Brown will contribute in other ways. He snatched 16 boards – the second highest total in the A-10 last season – in just 16 minutes vs. BYU. With his long arms and leaping ability, Brown (17 steals, 21 blocks) should also improve defensively. He had some trouble guarding opponents as a frosh, but he also has the tools to become a lockdown defender.

B.J. Raymond – The junior swingman (4.1 ppg, 2.1 rpg), a 3-point shooter in reserve last year, has been waiting to show off his full game and he’ll finally get a chance. Raymond plays solid defense, handles the ball fairly well and, at 6-6, he has shown the ability to post up. For many A-10 teams, he would be a sure starter.

Miller still wants Raymond to shoot the longball, though. Afterall, he hit 45% of his treys and canned at least two 3-pointers in 10 games, adding firepower when Burrell was out of sorts. He took an astonishing 80 of his 119 attempts behind the arc and only hit 12 two-point baskets all season. Raymond will still shoot plenty of treys, but expect him to score more frequently closer to the basket. His production in every area should rise with more playing time and responsibility. “B.J. is certainly earning his way to be a factor playing,” Miller told the Cincinnati Enquirer. “He's going to get a lot of minutes at the two and I think he's going to get a lot of minutes at the three.”

Adrion Graves – Cincinnati native played in 13 games (3.2 ppg) before his freshman season was cut short by injury. Graves, a fine athlete, is supposed to be a good shooter who also excels taking the ball to the basket. In limited minutes, he didn’t do either well (25% 3PG, 3 assists, 14 turnovers). Graves showed hints, however, of the talent that made him such a highly rated recruit. He’s likely to become part of the rotation, most likely as a sub for Burrell at wing guard, but he won’t see a lot of time if Stan returns to being the Man.

Jason Love – Slimmed-down power forward didn’t play much as a freshman (19 games, 76 minutes), but Love displayed soft hands and nimble feet for a 260-pounder. He hit 8 of 11 attempts and swatted 6 shots. He’ll get more time as sophomore and will be asked to anchor the middle. Xavier has plenty of scorers.

What Miller wants from Love – who he says might be the team’s most improved player - is to mimic the role of Brandole Cole. Rebound, defend and give the Musketeers some size and toughness in the paint. Love is not known for his offense, so any points he scores is a bonus. “Rebounding and defense are the two things I talk to coach Miller about,” Love told the Enquirer. “Cole was a big rebounder for us and took charges on defense. I want to be that for us this year.”

NEWCOMERS

C.J. Anderson - Transfer from Manhattan is a highly athletic swingman with a knack for scoring and getting to the rim. Anderson averaged 16.1 points a game as a freshman and 18.8 points as a sophomore. He does most of his scoring on slashing moves to the basket, short jumpers and quick putbacks. A terrific leaper, Anderson also averaged almost 9 rebounds at Manhattan. He even dished out nearly 4 assists a game in his final season for the Jaspers. “I think he can really bring us that size and toughness at that position,” Miller says. “On offense, he can really put fouls on the other team. He's ferocious. He's older, he's tested.”

His biggest weaknesses are 3-point shooting (1-8 in two years) and a tendency to force the issue (61 turnovers). Anderson doesn’t need to shoot well from long range to score, but he needs share the ball and make better decisions. The Xavier offense relies on good ball movement. Then there’s the matter of rust. Anderson hasn’t played in a year and a half. Lavender took until mid-January before he found his stride; Miller says Anderson could face a similar adjustment period.

At the other end of the court, Anderson is not as good of a man-to-man defender as Justin Cage, but he gets plenty of steals and blocks a lot of shots or his size. Xavier shouldn’t lose too much in terms of team defense.

Dante Jackson - Ohio native fits the mold of Xavier wingmen. He is a versatile and athletic player -- Jackson also starred in track and football -- who can score around the basket and shoot from outside. Although Jackson is one of the highest-rated recruits in the A-10, he’ll have to battle for time with C.J. Anderson, BJ Raymond and Adrion Graves ahead of him on the depth chart. There’s minutes available at backup point guard, however, and Jackson is said to be a capable ball-handler and passer who’s good enough to play that position.

Charles Bronson - Junior-college bigman signed with Xavier almost two years ago but failed to qualify. Strong and fairly athletic, Bronson is expected to help out with interior defense and rebounding. He's not a major offensive threat and won't be counted on to score. How much he plays might depend on the progress of sophomore center Jason Love, but he gives Xavier added depth in a smallish frontcourt. “Charles is a new player, so it's going to take him some time,” Miller said.

SCOUTING REPORT

The Xavier offense once again will revolve around the wizardry of point guard Drew Lavender as well as the 3-point shooting of Burrell, Raymond and Duncan. The Musketeers can still put as many as four 3-point shooters on the floor at any one time.

A new element in Xavier’s attack is the slashing style of transfer C.J Anderson. The 6-6 forward attacks the basket as well as anyone in the nation and is hard to stop from getting to the rim, but he’s also a surprisingly good passer. Even though he lacks a good outside shot, Anderson finds a way. It may take Anderson time to find his groove again, but he and Derrick Brown figure to be Xavier’s best low-post threats. Duncan prefers to shoot three’s and the other bigmen on the roster, Love and Bronson, are not big scorers.

Brown is not a classic low-post player either, but his quickness and great athleticism should allow him to score inside. The lefty has a soft touch around the basket and knows how to finish.

Where Miller might have cause for concern is rebounding and interior defense. Xavier lost its top three rebounders and its best shotblocker (Doellman) and it doesn’t have a whole lot of beef. Since Anderson and Brown figure to be on the floor much of the time, they’ll also have to do much of the boardwork. The good news is that both are terrific rebounders for their size, using quickness and hustle to beat opponents. What remains to be seen is whether they can hold their own physically against the bigger teams in the A-10. That’s where they will need help from Duncan, Love and Bronson.

Being smaller does have its advantages. The Musketeers will be even quicker than they were last year. Miller will be able to put more pressure on opponents the full length of the floor and Xavier is likely to score more baskets off turnovers or in transition.

PREDICTION

The top five players on Xavier are as good as any in the conference and likely 6th man, B.J. Raymond, could start for any other A-10 team. If Xavier stays healthy, the Musketeers should be the favorites to win the conference championship. Miller has the best point guard and the best backcourt and Xavier has plenty of shooting, athleticism and experience. The frontcourt might not be as strong as last season, but the Musketeers are not bereft of options.

One landmine is a potential lack of depth. Although it’s one of the best-recruiting schools in the league, Xavier only suits up 10 scholarship players. Aside from Raymond, the team’s other four reserves have little or no Division 1 experience. A key injury to one of the team’s upperclassmen would be all it takes to deny a return to the A-10 thrown.

Even if Xavier doesn’t win the league tournament, the Musketeers are the best bet for an at-large invitation to the NCAA tournament. The school will have plenty of chances to build a strong portfolio with games against Indiana, Creighton, Cincinnati, Arizona State, Tennessee, Kansas State, Virginia and Auburn. It’s the toughest nonconference schedule in the A-10. The Musketeers will be battle tested by the time league play starts in the second week of January.

What’s missing most from last year is oodles of experience. Yet if Burrell returns to form, Anderson regains it quickly, Duncan stays healthy and Brown makes the leap toward stardom, Xavier could be even better than last season and rank as a top 25 team.

Record: 22-9 (11-5), 1st place

[Nigel Tufnel]

I hope this A10 preview helps anyone looking at wagering on A10 teams and especially when conference play begins. This is about the most comprehensive preview and team capsules you can find on the A10.

This place is about sharing information....hope this helps.

GO X!!