UFL Week two

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  • RBD
    Predictem Feature Writer
    • Aug 2024
    • 244

    UFL Week two

    Recap: 0-1
    Record 0-1

    Review: I had Over 37'.
    Waited to buy it hoping the hook would come off but, no.
    And the game landed on 37; score 31-6.

    Took an ugly loss thanks in part to not one, not two, but THREE "point after" attempts failed.
    Not to mention Houston's overall suckage.


    NEXT!!!

    I'm out of my house and office.
    I'll drop by later after I get home and see my charts so I can post some numbers for this week's games.

    The big question for tonight is - was perennial powerhouse Birmingham's last game a fluke or have they fallen off their pedestal?

    Last week I had 16 touts/'cappers to chart, for tonight's game I've only got six (slackers are late getting their picks posted.)
    I don't have my data with me but I think it was five for Michigan and only one for Birmingham.
    For totals, more picks for Under than Over.

    What am I playing, and am I playing just for my own action or do I have something I would recommend as a posted play here?
    Hell if I know.
    But if I have something to recommend I'll post it.
    If not I'll definitely be back with something tomorrow either here in the forum or in an article.

    Note - I do have an early buy notice in my homepage article today for Sunday game.

    Good luck with your play today...


    Update: Another reason why it sucks not having my data with me - Michigan is now the Fav. They've gone from +2' to -2.
    And what was the record last year when teams flip flop and the opening Dog became the Fav?

    I DON'T KNOW BECAUSE I DON'T HAVE MY FRIGGIN' NUMBERS WITH ME!!!

    Were there any games last year where the Fav became the dog? I don't know!


    No matter. I'm going with the "Last week was an off day for Birmingham" theory.

    For a couple reasons:


    1) They're definitely not as bad as they looked last week.


    2) They're 3-0 lifetime vs Michigan, they always seem to find a way to pull it out in the end.
    Always take Skip over Nolan.


    3) Mr. Magoo is not going to get sacked eight times again (yes, he was sacked eight times last week, an incredibly embarrassing seven in the second half alone. )



    I see lines everywhere from +1' to +2.

    I think more money comes in the same way so I'll wait a little bit before buying this one.

    Update #3: Most people can't get +2 or +1' so I'll use +1.

    First play of the game and Magoo gets injured, hurts his throwing arm. On the sidelines.
    What's this mean?
    About to find out.
    Corral in at QB.


    My Play:

    Birmingham +1


    Update #4: Okay this is going to be trouble.
    I watch Corral throw deep and he stares at the receiver the entire way; incomplete. Couple plays later he drops back to pass, again he stares at the receiver the entire time, incomplete again.
    Magoo's on the sideline telling the coach he's ready to come in but Skip stays with Corral who rewards his coach's faith by...
    staring at the receiver the entire play and gets picked off while they were in field goal range.
    Ugh.
    Last edited by RBD; 04-04-2025, 08:00 PM.
  • RBD
    Predictem Feature Writer
    • Aug 2024
    • 244

    #2
    Recap: 1-0
    Record 1-1
    Review: Got a W with Birmingham yesterday.

    Here are the final poll numbers on Birmingham /Michigan:
    Birmingham 4, Mich 10
    Ov 2, Un 8

    The consensus was with Michigan and they lost.
    The consensus was on the Under and it won.

    Today I have:
    Mem 3, DC 9
    Ov 0, Un 9

    This game would have been a lot easier for me to make a play on if Birmingham lost again yesterday. The thought being that DC beat a team that was on a downward turn, and I would grab Memphis plus the points. But after watching how dominant the Stallions were yesterday against the decent Michigan team I can't bet against DC, even though they're in a situation where I expect them to come out a little flat after last week's upset.

    Lot of sports on the board today. Not sure I'll be playing this one, posting stats for info purposes in case anyone's looking for edges.


    Comment

    • RBD
      Predictem Feature Writer
      • Aug 2024
      • 244

      #3
      Upate: I'm trying to watch Florida/Auburn but it's just not holding my interest (tournament saturation reached?)
      It's a decent game, it's not a blowout or anything, but I find myself channel flipping so I know when the UFL game comes on I'll be watching that instead.
      Which means . . . I need action

      Here the final numbers on my poll for the game:
      Mem 5 DC 11
      Ov 0 Un 10

      Have to practice what I preach, as in...

      "It’s always easy in hindsight but I did make a big mistake and so did anyone else who didn’t bet DC last week. Using the basic premise that the books don’t stay in business by paying everyone, I’ll normally Fade the consensus play.”
      What was the biggest consensus on the board last week?
      Birmingham -7, a unanimous pick at 15-0.
      Final score: DC 18, Birmingham 11.
      BIG mistake laying off that one."

      Which makes my action on this one obvious.

      Mem/DC Ov 37 (Buying it now, 37 is a common number across the board and despite some books having higher juice on the Under I doubt a hook will come off it.)
      Last edited by RBD; 04-05-2025, 06:13 PM.

      Comment

      • RBD
        Predictem Feature Writer
        • Aug 2024
        • 244

        #4
        Poll numbers for today:
        Hou 1, Arl 15
        Ov 4, Un 6

        SA 7, St L 7
        Ov 6, Un 3

        My play is in my article from this week.
        Good luck with yours.

        Update:
        UFL analyst Erin Dolan keeps bringing up how the Under is profitable in the UFL.
        Same thing today, she's outright touting the Under, speaking directly to sports bettors.
        Friday's game was an Under.
        Saturday's game was an Under
        Sunday morning's game is on track for and Under.
        Will the Under get a 4-0 sweep?

        Bigger question - did it have a 4-0 sweep in any week last year, the leagues first year of existence?
        I checked my log book.
        The Under was domdominant week after week but no sweeps.

        If the Houston/Arlington game stays Under I'm going to take the Over in the last game, purely a percentage play that all four won't be Unders. (Of course, realistically, it doesn't have to go 4-0 to the Under, three are already in, only one has to go Under at this point.) But I'll play the percentages.
        I'll post the number I get. Might as well wait a little longer see if more Under money comes in.

        Update #2:
        SA/St L Ov 40
        Last edited by RBD; 04-06-2025, 01:38 PM.

        Comment

        • RBD
          Predictem Feature Writer
          • Aug 2024
          • 244

          #5
          Getting close to kickoff, got to run an errand and try and make it back in time for the start of the game.
          Will update records and stuff later.

          Today I'm taking San Antonio + 7 and Over 34'.

          Poll numbers if anyone's interested:
          SA 2, Mich 7
          Ov 4, Un 4

          DC 3, St L 8
          Ov 4, Un 2

          In the first two games this week the team favored by the polls has lost SU.
          Last edited by RBD; 04-13-2025, 12:37 PM.

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