UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Barao 2 Picks and Predictions!!!

[akatdrake]

UFC 177, August 30th, Sacramento, California

Fight Card
------------------------------------------------------------------------
T.J. Dillashaw vs. Renan Barao
Danny Castillo vs. Tony Ferguson
Shayna Baszler vs. Bethe Correia
Carlos Diego Ferreira vs. Ramsey Nijem
Damon Jackson vs. Yancy Medeiros
Derek Brunson vs. Lorenz Larkin
Henry Cejudo vs. Scott Jorgensen
Anthony Hamilton vs. Ruan Potts
Anthony Birchak vs. Joe Soto
Cain Carrizosa vs. Chris Wade

Honestly, not much of a card outside the main event. I am interested in a couple of the lines. Right now Dillashaw is a slight favorite. The money I see right away and I'll certainly be on is Correia over Baszler. I know Shayna used to be awesome (or so I have heard), but Correia is just a bulldog and I don't see Baszler doing much of anything to stop Correia. Also the Brunson/Larkin fight should be good.

Bethe Correia -145 over Shayna Baszler for three units

[akatdrake]

Cain Carrizosa is a lanky undefeated BJJ artist standing at 6'0" who's fought at Bellator and most-recently with Tachi Palace Fights. He is pretty active from his back, always grip fighting and isolating a limb, throwing elbows, etc. He really loves to use the overhook while on the bottom to isolate the arm for the triangle/armbar. I think this fits right into Wade's style. He likes to strike at angles like Dillashaw, Cruz, etc, but doesn't have the lateral movement those guys do - obviously. He likes to set his strikes up to clinch and get the fight to the ground. When he has to strike, he sometimes throws wild and drops his hands.

Chris Wade is kickboxer with a wrestling background who has made an appearance in WSOF (his only career loss). He leads his combos a lot with kicks, but doesn't throw them with speed and intention. This leads to a lot of counter punches and has him susceptible to the takedown. It also looks like he's got good takedown defense when he doesn't respect his opponents standup (vs Vinicius Agudo ROC 38). Though it looks like he's got a pretty good chin. He's been involved in many decisions (only two submission wins, no KO wins). He's built like a brick sh1thouse and his cardio looks fine. Like a wrestler and kickboxer, he's not all that great on his back - doesn't have a closed guard and his transitions/defense while in guard consist of eating punches and holding onto his opponent so the ref will stand them up. When in his opponent's guard, he doesn't go for submissions, but more of a wrestlefu3cker with a sprinkling of ground and pound.

Traditionally when this fight hits the mat, the position-improving wrestler will get outpointed by the more active BJJ fighter, even if on the ground. I think this is probably a wash on the feet and likely will have Cain bring it to the ground via takedown or pulling guard. Both of these fighters have some glaring weaknesses but look like they have some parts of their game that will give others trouble. I'd see ground and pound vs BJJ and with two green fighters in the UFC, the line is probably closer to even instead of Wade -130/Cain +100. If Wade gets more action and Cain's line gets better, I'll probably bite for a half-unit. Or if I can find a prop on Cain by submission..

[akatdrake]

Well, lots of change in the card. Barao cannot make weight and hits his head during the cut before the fight. He gets ill and cannot continue. Joe Soto, former Tachi Palace Fights and Bellator Champion (no slouch), winner of six fights in a row gets the fight! UFC debut and gets a title shot, wow!

Total card as follows:

Singles:
Bethe Correia -145 over Shayna Baszler for 3 units
Cain Carrizosa +100 over Chris Wade for 0.5 units

Parlays:
Carlos Diego Ferreira over Ramsey Nijem
Bethe Correia over Shayna Baszler
TJ Dillashaw over Joe Soto +170 for 0.5 units

Good luck guys!!

[akatdrake]

Adding:

Bethe Correia wins by decision +110 for 1 unit
Shayna Baszler wins by submission +350 for 0.5 units

[akatdrake]

Results:

2-3, +0.85 units

My original thought was to just play Correia with a small play on Carrizosa and I should have stuck with that. The two hedge adds didn't work out and it took most of the profit. Ah well.