UFC 169: Barao vs Faber Picks and Predictions!!

**akatdrake** · 02-01-2014, 12:26 PM

Singles:

Ali Bagautinov -150 over John Lineker for one unit

In love with the Russians ability to dodge the quickness of Lineker's strikes and take Lineker down. Lineker surprisingly made weight for this fight, and I think this is actually going to hurt him a little bit. He most likely had to make weight or be cut, so I see him not training as hard recently. Bagautinov via takedowns enroute to 3 round unanimous decision.

Andy Enz +140 over Clint Hester risking one unit

Clint has some great boxing no doubt, but Enz is a submission beast. Hester's tdd was good the last time he fought, but wasn't good before that camp. I'll take the dog to finish Hester, and take value that last fight was a fluke. However, if Hester can continue the impressive tdd, his career should be on the upswing.

Chris Cariaso -165 over Danny Martinez for two units

Cariaso vs Martinez is classic striking match. I love Cariaso as the top fighter in the second-tier in the flyweight division. Cariaso is fast, hits hard, and just has too many ways to win vs Martinez's striking that sets up wrestling. A good grappler can effectively neutralize a wrestler, and bottom line is Martinez is no slouch, but Cariaso is at another level.

**akatdrake** · 02-01-2014, 01:18 PM

Parlays:

Renan Barao over Urijah Faber
Alistair Overeem over Frank Mir
-142 for two units

Let's not focus on what Barao does right, because the answer is "everything." But let's look at Faber... the guy is undefeated in non-title fights. He's arguably the best Urijah Faber we've ever seen and on a four-fight win streak since his loss to Barao. Since Duane Ludwig came to Team Alpha Male, they have been on a roll. Is this enough? No. Faber is 0-5 in his last five title challenges. In title fights vs non-title fights Faber is so much different. In non-title fights, Faber outstrikes his opponent almost three times more than in title fights, and over three-times the amount of takedowns landed. Urijah has had a lot of trouble against the top-tier talent in the world (including Barao/Faber 1). Barao has the best tdd in the entire defense at 95%. He's extremely likely to be able to defend against the takedown seeing as they only fought just 18 months ago and Urijah was 0 for 6 in attempts. Add in the fact that Urijah takes this fight on one-month notice, I don't see this being a win for the California Kid.

Frank Mir vs Alistair Overeem is going to be pretty one-sided. Overeem is tough to take down at 77% lifetime defense. Mir has failed to land a takedown in 7 of his last nine fights. He'll have a tough time taking down Overeem. If he doesn't, he'll be absorbing some punches. In Overeem's career, he's landed 2.7 significant strikes, for every one he's absorbed. By contrast, Mir has only landed .6 significant strikes for every one he's absorbed. Obviously Reem's issues might be his chin as since he tested positive for juice, he's been KOed twice, despite outstriking his opponent 93-37 (or so).

**akatdrake** · 02-02-2014, 08:45 AM

Missed on Enz but nailed the rest. +4 units on the card, was nice to have a good day.

UFC 169: Barao vs Faber Picks and Predictions!!

UFC 169: Barao vs Faber Picks and Predictions!!

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