UFC on FOX 7: Henderson vs Melendez Picks and Predictions!

[akatdrake]

UFC ON FOX 7: "HENDERSON VS. MELENDEZ", April 20th, San Jose, California
Fight Card

Benson Henderson vs. Gilbert Melendez
Daniel Cormier vs. Frank Mir
Nate Diaz vs. Josh Thomson
Matt Brown vs. Jordan Mein
Darren Elkins vs. Chad Mendes
Francis Carmont vs. Lorenz Larkin
Myles Jury vs. Ramsey Nijem
Joseph Benavidez vs. Darren Uyenoyama
Jorge Masvidal vs. Tim Means
T.J. Dillashaw vs. Hugo Viana
Roger Bowling vs. Anthony Njokuani
Clifford Starks vs. Yoel Romero

Lots of good names on here for a free card. I am interested in the Benavidez/Uyenoyama fight as Benavidez might be in that Urijah Faber mold where the terrorizes the entire division, but cannot beat the title-holder. It will be interesting to see how Nate Diaz reacts since his last loss vs the Champion. Welcome to the UFC Daniel Cormier, Frank Mir is no slouch. And Bendo vs Melendez is definitely the two top guys in the world in their weightclass, going at it.

[akatdrake]

Looking at underdogs that have a chance: not too many have a legit chance bettoring the odds other than Josh Thomson. I think there's a little chance for Mir (sub on bottom), Melendez (grind out decision), and Darren Elkins (odds too high on Mendez). That being said, looks like this is a card with three "locks" Bendo, Cormier, Benavidez, and if one of those guys go down, lots of parlays going down.

[akatdrake]

Josh Thomson +155 over Nate Diaz one unit
Francis Carmont -140 over Lorenz Larkin two units
Gilbert Melendez +230 over Benson Hendersong for one unit
Frank Mir +350 over Daniel Cormier for one unit

Anthony Njokuani over Roger Bowling
TJ Dillashaw over Hugo Viana
+100 for two units

[akatdrake]

Throwing in the fact that everyone is on the Cormier/Bendo train, it looks like we're due for a big upset because heavy favorite parlays have been hitting lately and that's eventually going to change. For me, I think Mir looked determined at the weigh-in. Cormier is possibly the highest-level wrestler the UFC has ever seen, especially given his lack of MMA experience. Mir will be active off his back, especially if Cormier goes into side control instead of in Mir's guard. Look for a sub on the ground, or a knee when Cormier going in for the double-leg.

Gilbert Melendez just plain wins. He's got intense cardio, and it ranks right up there with Bendo's. Melendez is the better power striker, though Bendo's technical boxing is pretty impressive. Melendez's takedown defense will be key here, because I think if he can avoid being dominated via Bendo's wrestling, he can test Bendo's chin. I think he has to finish Bendo to win though.

Josh Thomson is a veteran and definitely has the skills to outclass Diaz on the feet. Diaz looked awful at the weigh-in, just struggling to get that last half-pound to make weight. I think Thomson looks fresher and will have the tools to play his own game and not fall in line with Diaz's antics.

Carmont under the radar and after this win, people will notice the five-fight win streak and he'll get a step-up in competition... perhaps the winner of Jordan Mein/Matt Brown?

Finally Anthony Njokuani over Bowling and Dillashaw for a small parlay. Both the better talent and becoming more well-rounded than they were earlier in their careers. Dillashaw adding striking to his already awesome wrestling base at Team Alpha Male and Njokuani being a little more technical and not making those small mistakes that cost him fights.

Good luck to all.