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THE ULTIMATE FIGHTER 17 FINALE, April 13th, Las Vegas, Nevada
Fight Card
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Urijah Faber vs. Scott Jorgensen
Kelvin Gastelum vs. Uriah Hall
Miesha Tate vs. Cat Zingano
Travis Browne vs. Gabriel Gonzaga
Robert McDaniel vs. Gilbert Smith
Kevin Casey vs. Josh Samman
Luke Barnatt vs. Collin Hart
Dylan Andrews vs. Jimmy Quinlan
Clint Hester vs. Bristol Marunde
Cole Miller vs. Bart Palaszewski
Justin Lawrence vs. Daniel Pineda
Maximo Blanco vs. Sam Sicilia
Like the card top to bottom. Hoping Maximo Blanco can get it going as he was lackluster in his UFC debut. Like Justin Lawrence here in a close fight, if I can get underdog line, I'm taking it. Pineda was also a guy who has been lackluster lately. Cole Miller vs Bartimus looks interesting with Miller as a dog, but I wouldn't have much confidence backing him. He's looked pretty bad at 145 lately. Travis Browne was the rising star in the HW division before his torn hamstring/calf? muscle and now will take a few fights to get back. Like him vs Gonzaga. Like the women's fight, but I don't know enough about them other than Miesha is tough as nails and Cat kicks like a ton of bricks. The consensus about Faber is that he does everything Jorgensen does, but better.
Regarding the TUF fights... this was a great season, and for me, it's tough to bet. You like Clint Hester over Bristol as Bristol was not impressive in a bad season, but you have to know he'll be trying to take the fight to the ground vs Hester. I think Zuffa likes Hester's upside, so maybe they matched him up vs a fighter who wants to brawl? I don't see that in Marunde.
Dylan Andrews looked good on the show, definitely underrated. I was high on Jimmy Quinlan except was shocked by the last performance where he was dominating and then tapped to strikes. Like he gave up. No way in heck I can bet Quinlan, even though I thought he was an upstanding guy and a fairly impressive fighter. I think Dylan will make a career in the UFC, but doing so not very spectacular. I think he's very well-rounded.
I was definitely high on Luke, but the guy didn't have the motivation vs Dylan and he was rocked. If he uses his length on the outside, he'll be able to cruise to a victory, but I see Collin doing some Couture-like dirty boxing and being able to close the distance. I don't see Luke being able to separate, and without the distance, might be hard-pressed to score. That being said, I don't see Hart winning other than by decision, so I'm going to pass.
Samman vs Casey seems pretty one-sided to me. Samman has some great tools, despite being a total douche for the camera. I like his cardio, I like his diverse striking and movement. I think he was pretty taken back the way Gastelum outworked him. Samman won't be outworked in his live debut, and sure as heck not by Kevin Casey. I think the guy has an impressive physique for sure, but really didn't see much in the way of MMA tools to be able to beat Josh.
Bubba vs Gilbert - another fight that seems pretty one-sided here with Gilbert not being that impressive on the show, and everyone wanting to hate on Bubba. I'd give the edge to Bubba just given the experience he has and the camp he's in, but I wouldn't be confident to a guy who wants to talk the talk, but not walk the walk.
TUF Championship fight: Kelvin under the radar, and definitely more upside than Uriah Hall, but how can you discount Uriah's flashy KOs? I have to think the UFC wants Hall to win, but honestly doesn't care. Hall will be around for a long time and should contend sooner than later at 185. However, Hall's two career losses are definitely from the stiffest competition in the division - Chris Weidman (fighting for the title), and Costa Phillipou (possibly fighting for number one contender). They weren't close fights. That being said, I think the action gets heavy on Hall and see some value in Kalvin, though I'm not 100 percent confident. I like Kelvin's ability to be resourceful, use his body, and close the distance. I don't think he does anything great, unlike Hall, but I think this is a much closer fight than the odds predict - I'm not sure what the opening line was, but I saw it as Hall only a 3-1 favorite, and that makes me think Vegas thinks it's quite closer. I expect that line to move in Hall's favor throughout the night. Hoping I can get Kelvin at +400 or so.
Plays:
Justin Lawrence -110 over Daniel Pineda one unit
Dylan Andrews -115 over Jimmy Quinlan one unit
Maximo Blanco/Clint Hester +134 for one unit
Might be late add on Gastelum, but we'll see. Good luck guys!
Fight Card
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Urijah Faber vs. Scott Jorgensen
Kelvin Gastelum vs. Uriah Hall
Miesha Tate vs. Cat Zingano
Travis Browne vs. Gabriel Gonzaga
Robert McDaniel vs. Gilbert Smith
Kevin Casey vs. Josh Samman
Luke Barnatt vs. Collin Hart
Dylan Andrews vs. Jimmy Quinlan
Clint Hester vs. Bristol Marunde
Cole Miller vs. Bart Palaszewski
Justin Lawrence vs. Daniel Pineda
Maximo Blanco vs. Sam Sicilia
Like the card top to bottom. Hoping Maximo Blanco can get it going as he was lackluster in his UFC debut. Like Justin Lawrence here in a close fight, if I can get underdog line, I'm taking it. Pineda was also a guy who has been lackluster lately. Cole Miller vs Bartimus looks interesting with Miller as a dog, but I wouldn't have much confidence backing him. He's looked pretty bad at 145 lately. Travis Browne was the rising star in the HW division before his torn hamstring/calf? muscle and now will take a few fights to get back. Like him vs Gonzaga. Like the women's fight, but I don't know enough about them other than Miesha is tough as nails and Cat kicks like a ton of bricks. The consensus about Faber is that he does everything Jorgensen does, but better.
Regarding the TUF fights... this was a great season, and for me, it's tough to bet. You like Clint Hester over Bristol as Bristol was not impressive in a bad season, but you have to know he'll be trying to take the fight to the ground vs Hester. I think Zuffa likes Hester's upside, so maybe they matched him up vs a fighter who wants to brawl? I don't see that in Marunde.
Dylan Andrews looked good on the show, definitely underrated. I was high on Jimmy Quinlan except was shocked by the last performance where he was dominating and then tapped to strikes. Like he gave up. No way in heck I can bet Quinlan, even though I thought he was an upstanding guy and a fairly impressive fighter. I think Dylan will make a career in the UFC, but doing so not very spectacular. I think he's very well-rounded.
I was definitely high on Luke, but the guy didn't have the motivation vs Dylan and he was rocked. If he uses his length on the outside, he'll be able to cruise to a victory, but I see Collin doing some Couture-like dirty boxing and being able to close the distance. I don't see Luke being able to separate, and without the distance, might be hard-pressed to score. That being said, I don't see Hart winning other than by decision, so I'm going to pass.
Samman vs Casey seems pretty one-sided to me. Samman has some great tools, despite being a total douche for the camera. I like his cardio, I like his diverse striking and movement. I think he was pretty taken back the way Gastelum outworked him. Samman won't be outworked in his live debut, and sure as heck not by Kevin Casey. I think the guy has an impressive physique for sure, but really didn't see much in the way of MMA tools to be able to beat Josh.
Bubba vs Gilbert - another fight that seems pretty one-sided here with Gilbert not being that impressive on the show, and everyone wanting to hate on Bubba. I'd give the edge to Bubba just given the experience he has and the camp he's in, but I wouldn't be confident to a guy who wants to talk the talk, but not walk the walk.
TUF Championship fight: Kelvin under the radar, and definitely more upside than Uriah Hall, but how can you discount Uriah's flashy KOs? I have to think the UFC wants Hall to win, but honestly doesn't care. Hall will be around for a long time and should contend sooner than later at 185. However, Hall's two career losses are definitely from the stiffest competition in the division - Chris Weidman (fighting for the title), and Costa Phillipou (possibly fighting for number one contender). They weren't close fights. That being said, I think the action gets heavy on Hall and see some value in Kalvin, though I'm not 100 percent confident. I like Kelvin's ability to be resourceful, use his body, and close the distance. I don't think he does anything great, unlike Hall, but I think this is a much closer fight than the odds predict - I'm not sure what the opening line was, but I saw it as Hall only a 3-1 favorite, and that makes me think Vegas thinks it's quite closer. I expect that line to move in Hall's favor throughout the night. Hoping I can get Kelvin at +400 or so.
Plays:
Justin Lawrence -110 over Daniel Pineda one unit
Dylan Andrews -115 over Jimmy Quinlan one unit
Maximo Blanco/Clint Hester +134 for one unit
Might be late add on Gastelum, but we'll see. Good luck guys!