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THE ULTIMATE FIGHTER 16 FINALE: Dec. 15th, Las Vegas, Nevada
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Fight Card
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Matt Mitrione vs. Roy Nelson
Mike Ricci vs. Colton Smith
Patrick Barry vs. Shane del Rosario
Melvin Guillard vs. Jamie Varner
Jonathan Brookins vs. Dustin Poirier
James Head vs. Mike Pyle
Johnny Bedford vs. Marcos Vinicius
Rustam Khabilov vs. Vinc Pichel
Nick Catone vs. Anthony "T.J." Waldburger
Reuben Duran vs. Hugo Viana
John Cofer vs. Mike Rio
Tim Elliott vs. Jared Papazian
Big news is that only the final two fighters made the television show. Most TUF finales have had most of the cast fighting. In an episode mid-season Dana said you have to finish people and put up exciting fights to make the final, and voila here's what we had. However, if I know Dana, I know he's not excited about watching Colton Smith try to lay-and-pray on Mike Ricci.
I like Mike Ricci - he's just more polished in his game than any other fighter on the show. He's got good standup and power, great sprawl and decent wrestling. He fights out of Tristar gym and has been training alongside GSP for this fight. It really sets him up well vs Colton Smith. Smith has no game on his feet and looks for the double-leg or the clinch into a takedown. I really just see Ricci holding him on the outside or shedding the takedowns (who better to teach you in takedown defense than GSP really) and finishing him inside the distance. We saw in the semi-finals vs Jon Manley, that Smith really cuts pretty easily as I think Manley only hit him with one or two punches in the clinch but Smith had a nice cut below the eye.
Mitrione comes in as a fairly late sub for the injured Shane Carwin. This is a fight that I don't see Mitrione winning in any way, shape, or form. Mitrione has a suspect chin, and we know Big Country has power and a huge chin, and again I feel the need to point out that Roy Nelson has AMAZING cardio for a man his size. He also has a great ground game if Mitrione wants to take it down there. Right now Nelson is only -250 and I think that will be going up. I'll likely be making a big play on Big Country. I see zero value on the underdog and would only make a one unit play on Matt Mitrione if it hit +400 or so.
The Pat Barry/Shane Del Rosario fight was fun to watch, and Pat Barry was probably the best coach on TUF this season. Nelson and Carwin were nowhere to be found, and normally I might balk at that, but this season was really void of talent. Both Barry and Del Rosario have one-punch KO power, but Barry's been a stepping stone for fighters as of late. However, he'll be in the UFC forever if he keeps putting up exciting fights (remember vs Cheick Kongo? holy cow!). Del Rosario's one-loss record in the UFC is only marred by Travis Browne I believe. And who can blame him there. Another young talent in the HW division.
Guillard vs Varner is a battle between two vets who have been on the rise. Right now betting on both fighters requires vig, so I don't see any value, but if it drops to someone as a dog, I'll take it. I think Varner really has turned his career around, and with Guillard, you have so much potential, still, you can put him against anyone and be confident he can get the KO.
The Poirier/Brookins fight has some potential, as does the Cofer/Rio fight. This should be a much better card than Friday night's card. I'll have some plays in the morning as I continue to monitor the lines.
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Fight Card
----------------------------------------------------------
Matt Mitrione vs. Roy Nelson
Mike Ricci vs. Colton Smith
Patrick Barry vs. Shane del Rosario
Melvin Guillard vs. Jamie Varner
Jonathan Brookins vs. Dustin Poirier
James Head vs. Mike Pyle
Johnny Bedford vs. Marcos Vinicius
Rustam Khabilov vs. Vinc Pichel
Nick Catone vs. Anthony "T.J." Waldburger
Reuben Duran vs. Hugo Viana
John Cofer vs. Mike Rio
Tim Elliott vs. Jared Papazian
Big news is that only the final two fighters made the television show. Most TUF finales have had most of the cast fighting. In an episode mid-season Dana said you have to finish people and put up exciting fights to make the final, and voila here's what we had. However, if I know Dana, I know he's not excited about watching Colton Smith try to lay-and-pray on Mike Ricci.
I like Mike Ricci - he's just more polished in his game than any other fighter on the show. He's got good standup and power, great sprawl and decent wrestling. He fights out of Tristar gym and has been training alongside GSP for this fight. It really sets him up well vs Colton Smith. Smith has no game on his feet and looks for the double-leg or the clinch into a takedown. I really just see Ricci holding him on the outside or shedding the takedowns (who better to teach you in takedown defense than GSP really) and finishing him inside the distance. We saw in the semi-finals vs Jon Manley, that Smith really cuts pretty easily as I think Manley only hit him with one or two punches in the clinch but Smith had a nice cut below the eye.
Mitrione comes in as a fairly late sub for the injured Shane Carwin. This is a fight that I don't see Mitrione winning in any way, shape, or form. Mitrione has a suspect chin, and we know Big Country has power and a huge chin, and again I feel the need to point out that Roy Nelson has AMAZING cardio for a man his size. He also has a great ground game if Mitrione wants to take it down there. Right now Nelson is only -250 and I think that will be going up. I'll likely be making a big play on Big Country. I see zero value on the underdog and would only make a one unit play on Matt Mitrione if it hit +400 or so.
The Pat Barry/Shane Del Rosario fight was fun to watch, and Pat Barry was probably the best coach on TUF this season. Nelson and Carwin were nowhere to be found, and normally I might balk at that, but this season was really void of talent. Both Barry and Del Rosario have one-punch KO power, but Barry's been a stepping stone for fighters as of late. However, he'll be in the UFC forever if he keeps putting up exciting fights (remember vs Cheick Kongo? holy cow!). Del Rosario's one-loss record in the UFC is only marred by Travis Browne I believe. And who can blame him there. Another young talent in the HW division.
Guillard vs Varner is a battle between two vets who have been on the rise. Right now betting on both fighters requires vig, so I don't see any value, but if it drops to someone as a dog, I'll take it. I think Varner really has turned his career around, and with Guillard, you have so much potential, still, you can put him against anyone and be confident he can get the KO.
The Poirier/Brookins fight has some potential, as does the Cofer/Rio fight. This should be a much better card than Friday night's card. I'll have some plays in the morning as I continue to monitor the lines.
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