UFC on FOX 5: Bendo vs Diaz Picks and Predictions!!

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UFC ON FOX 5: "HENDERSON VS. DIAZ", Dec. 8th, Seattle, Washington

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Fight Card
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Benson Henderson vs. Nate Diaz
Alexander Gustafsson vs. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua
Rory MacDonald vs. B.J. Penn
Matt Brown vs. Mike Swick
Mike Chiesa vs. Marcus LeVesseur
Raphael Assuncao vs. Mike Easton
Nam Phan vs. Dennis Siver
Ramsey Nijem vs. Joe Proctor
Yves Edwards vs. Jeremy Stephens
Daron Cruickshank vs. Henry Martinez
John Albert vs. Scott Jorgensen
Marcus Levesseur vs. Abel Trujillo (Tim Means ill)

Cannot wait to see Daron Cruickshank today. Martinez came in 2.8 lbs over alloted weight, and instead of cutting, he forfeited 20% of his purse to Daron. Daron was on the last season of TUF with a Karate and Muay Thai (?) background. Basically this guy was a pure product of his parents - both practiced martial arts at a high level. His stint on TUF didn't last past the first fight as he went in for a takedown vs James Vick and ate a KO from a knee. It was more of a lucky shot rather than a microcosm of Daron's ability. Right now he's -165 roughly, and will likely be a two unit favorite for me.

Some other good fighters here with Edwards, Stephens, Nijem, Proctor, Siver, Phan, etc... Dana wasn't kidding when we probably have the most stacked card on free TV ever. I'd agree with him.

Let's look at the main card, specifically the last three fights. Rory vs BJ Penn - there's no doubt it's a bit of the changing of the guard here. BJ hasn't had some great fights before he retired, losing to Edgar, Edgar, beating Matt Hughes, majority draw with Jon Fitch, and getting demolished by Nick Diaz. That latter fight was probably the ugliest, one-sided boxing-beatdown in MMA I have ever seen. Really what put Diaz on the map and let everyone know his boxing was here to stay. Every fight we have Penn's camp say he's had the best camp ever, and after these losses, Penn will come out saying he had problems with his camp. We'll see here. Rory McDonald is the up-and-comer of the division, on a three-fight win streak beating Nate Diaz, Mike Pyle, and Che Mills. He boasts a 13-1 record with his lone-blemish a TKO loss to Carlos Condit very late in the third-round. Rory is well-versed with 6 wins from KO, 6 from submissions. He works out with GSP at Tristar Gym in Montreal. Rory is a massive favorite here at -280 or so, so there is probably value on Penn as this will be the toughest task for Rory to date (his defeat over Nate Diaz as well).

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Now we'll look at Gustafsson vs Shogun. Another "changing of the guard" fight in the LHW division? Gustafsson has compiled a 14-1 record with his only loss to a once-up and coming Phil Davis by Anaconda choke. He's on a five-fight win streak having dispatched Cyrille Diabate, James Te Huna, Matt Hamill, Vladimir Matyushenko, and Thiago Silva. He boasts similar flexibilty as McDonald with his finishes as 9 have come by KO, and 3 by submission. Gustafsson is a lean, lanky LHW, and will look to stay on his feet vs Shogun and strike the veteran. Looking at Shogun, what can you say about him that hasn't already been said? He has had a long and storied career. His last fight vs Brandon Vera could be a FOTY candidate, and his Nov 19, 2011 battle vs Dan Henderson was FOTY, and is in my top-two of best fight ever. Here's the fact though, since 2009, Shogun has alternated wins and losses, W Liddell, L Machida, W Machida, L Jones, W Griffin, L Hendo, W Vera... the last four fights he's looked gassed and just looks like he's gone to too many wars. Gustafsson is a similar-heavy favorite ala McDonald, and traditionally I'd see some value here for the veteran, but I won't be taking him today.

Finally we have the main event... Bendo vs Nate Diaz... Diaz is not the boxer his brother is, but he has been on a roll lately. After back-to-back losses vs Dong Hyun Kim and Rory MacDonald, Diaz has taken over Takanori Gomi, Donald Cerrone, and Jim Miller. Miller was finished for the first time in his career, and was beaten pillar-to-post throughout the fight. The Cerrone win was surprising as at that time because he never established his reach, and allowed Diaz to dictate the action - not good for Donald. Benson Henderson is a good champion. He is respectful, and good at what he does. However, he has only one way to beat you - wrestling you, and by decision. Diaz meanwhile, will want to strike with Bendo, and will outstrike him. If Bendo wants to bring it to the ground, Diaz is a Gracie-trained BJJer and is EXTREMELY active from the ground. I believe he has the most submission attempts in his lightweight history, and can throw up triangles and armbars like no one's business. I believe for this reason, Diaz is only a slight dog (+130) and I'll be on him to win tonight.

Props I like: if you're going to bet BJ, either bet him ITD or if your book allows, bet him by the spread. I figure that to be a close fight, and he's not going to allow the youngster to finish him. I do like Gustafsson to win by KO. Finally, I do like Diaz by sub if you can get that prop.

I'll have my final picks later.

[akatdrake]

Abel Trujillo +115 for one unit - making based on principle. Marcus takes this fight on just a couple of days notice and Abel looks absolutely ripped in the weigh-ins. Would always fade a fighter not ready.

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Daron Cruickshank -160 to win two units. Really high on this guy, see above for a bit of explanation. Really like this fighter's style vs opponents. It's awkward similar to Lyoto Machida.

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Nate Diaz +140 over Benson Henderson. Like I said above, I believe Diaz has more ways to win than Bendo, and though I like the champion, I'll take the value in Nate!

That's it for today, except for a Hail Mary parlay that I won't post. Good luck guys!