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UFC 153: "Silva vs. Bonnar", October 13th, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
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Fight Card
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Anderson Silva vs. Stephan Bonnar
Fabio Maldonado vs. Glover Teixeira
Dave Herman vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
Jon Fitch vs. Erick Silva
Phil Davis vs. Wagner Prado
Demian Maia vs. Rick Story
Rony "Jason" Mariano Bezerra vs. Sam Sicilia
Gleison Tibau vs. Francisco Trinaldo
Diego Brandao vs. Joey Gambino
Renee Forte vs. Sergio Moraes
Chris Camozzi vs. Luiz Cane
Reza Madadi vs. Cristiano Marcello
Couple of things I said in the other UFC thread... this main event is a no-lose situation for both fighters. Silva comes in saving the UFC card, fighting on short-notice in his own country, and no one would blame him for moving up in weight and losing. Bonnar has been a stepping stone fighter - usually finishes his opponents, but always puts up good fights. He's never been finished in the Octagon, and he looked incredibly massive in the weigh-ins compared to Silva.
The Glover Texiera/Fabio Maldonado fight is probably going to be bad for Maldonado. We know from the Kingsbury fight that Maldonado can take a punch - and he can take a lot of them. Texiera sure can bulldoze, but will he take Maldo seriously after gameplanning for Rampage? I see Glover running through.
Herman vs Noguiera: how does Big Nog come back from yet another injury? Does Herman have much to offer him? Herman cannot take a punch, and doesn't do well on the ground. I'm going to pass since Nog is over -300 and I don't see much value in Herman outside of fighting a guy coming off an injury.
Fitch/Erick Silva: We all know how bad Fitch's style is, and we've seen how explosive Silva is... I hate to bet against Silva, and I still may not do it, but there's probably a tiny bit of value on Fitch. Silva has a BJJ, but I have no clue how active he is on the ground, and Fitch has humped his way through the division with lay and pray. However, if Silva gets off something like Johny Hendricks did, Fitch goes down.
Maia/Story: Maia has looked good, but Story has done alright coming back from that Brenneman wrestle-fest. Maia has impressed me on his feet rather than his BJJ (world-class) lately, but he's alternated wins and losses over his last five fights. Probably staying away.
Prado/Davis: I'm still on Prado here, but he's lost some value coming down from +450 to +310. He was winning the striking battle before the eye-poke in the first round.
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Fight Card
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Anderson Silva vs. Stephan Bonnar
Fabio Maldonado vs. Glover Teixeira
Dave Herman vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
Jon Fitch vs. Erick Silva
Phil Davis vs. Wagner Prado
Demian Maia vs. Rick Story
Rony "Jason" Mariano Bezerra vs. Sam Sicilia
Gleison Tibau vs. Francisco Trinaldo
Diego Brandao vs. Joey Gambino
Renee Forte vs. Sergio Moraes
Chris Camozzi vs. Luiz Cane
Reza Madadi vs. Cristiano Marcello
Couple of things I said in the other UFC thread... this main event is a no-lose situation for both fighters. Silva comes in saving the UFC card, fighting on short-notice in his own country, and no one would blame him for moving up in weight and losing. Bonnar has been a stepping stone fighter - usually finishes his opponents, but always puts up good fights. He's never been finished in the Octagon, and he looked incredibly massive in the weigh-ins compared to Silva.
The Glover Texiera/Fabio Maldonado fight is probably going to be bad for Maldonado. We know from the Kingsbury fight that Maldonado can take a punch - and he can take a lot of them. Texiera sure can bulldoze, but will he take Maldo seriously after gameplanning for Rampage? I see Glover running through.
Herman vs Noguiera: how does Big Nog come back from yet another injury? Does Herman have much to offer him? Herman cannot take a punch, and doesn't do well on the ground. I'm going to pass since Nog is over -300 and I don't see much value in Herman outside of fighting a guy coming off an injury.
Fitch/Erick Silva: We all know how bad Fitch's style is, and we've seen how explosive Silva is... I hate to bet against Silva, and I still may not do it, but there's probably a tiny bit of value on Fitch. Silva has a BJJ, but I have no clue how active he is on the ground, and Fitch has humped his way through the division with lay and pray. However, if Silva gets off something like Johny Hendricks did, Fitch goes down.
Maia/Story: Maia has looked good, but Story has done alright coming back from that Brenneman wrestle-fest. Maia has impressed me on his feet rather than his BJJ (world-class) lately, but he's alternated wins and losses over his last five fights. Probably staying away.
Prado/Davis: I'm still on Prado here, but he's lost some value coming down from +450 to +310. He was winning the striking battle before the eye-poke in the first round.
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