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UFC 150: "Henderson vs. Edgar II", August 11th, Denver, Colorado
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Fight Card
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Benson Henderson vs. Frankie Edgar
Donald Cerrone vs. Melvin Guillard
Jake Shields vs. Ed Herman
Yushin Okami vs. Buddy Roberts
Justin Lawrence vs. Max Holloway
Dennis Bermudez vs. Tom Hayden
Jared Hamman vs. Michael Kuiper
Ken Stone vs. Erik Perez
Nik Lentz vs. Eiji Mitsuoka
Dustin Pague vs. Chico Camus
First and foremost: besides a lucky punch, I don't believe Edgar has much of a shot in this fight. Bendo is one of only three fighters (the other two being GSP and Jon Jones) that breaks down what you're good at, and beats you with it. Bendo will never be out of shape, and was never in trouble (believe me, go watch the first fight) in their previos matchup. Bendo's cut takes three weeks, and has it down to a science, so there is no way he comes in tired or exhausted from a quick cut. That being said, with the fight being in Denver, Colorado, one mile above sea-level, this can only favor Bendo. Let's look at Edgar...
Penn got a rematch because Edgar's victory was out of left-field. At the time it was one of the biggest upsets in all of MMA (I believe he was like +600/+700), so obviously the former champion is going to get another shot. Penn never got things going against a guy who has a non-stop motor. Vs Maynard I, that was a fight!- it was close, and I remember scoring it a draw, one other at my party scored it Maynard, one for Edgar - so it was really close. The rematch - not even close; Edgar was able to score the takedown and outwork Maynard and his less-than-stellar cardio. Unfortunately for Edgar, he's good in a lot of things, but not great in anything. He will outwork most fighters, but not Bendo. He will knockout someone if they come in wild, but Bendo is meticulous with his distancing. Unfortunately Edgar's biggest strength in fighting comes in his wrestling, but that's undoubtedly Bendo's strength as well - if you can get him down. Bendo has the best takedown defense at 155. Frankie Edgar has heart, you have to give him that - but a fighter's heart comes into play when he's in a dogfight, when it's wild, when he's on the ropes. That's not going to happen tonight as Bendo dominates for unanimous decision win and Edgar eventually heeds Dana's word and moves down to 145 for a warm-up fight before taking on Jose Aldo.
"Smooth" Benson Henderson -200 over Frankie Edgar for eight units
I won't be betting the Donald Cerrone/Melvin Guillard fight. If I was to pick a side, I'd be taking Guillard here based on value, but there are tons of reasons to take both fighters. Here are a few points of the fighters: again the location: Cerrone has been training in Vail, Colorado the last few months so he's used to it - and he's never had an issue with cardio already, mind-you. Guillard just missed weight, by 1.5 lbs. Both fighters used to be sparring partners at Greg Jackson's camp, so they know each other very well. Both fighters are GOOD friends with one another, and at one time had a pact not to fight each other. Cerrone sometimes let's his emotions get the best of him (see the Nate Diaz fight). And then there's Guillard's weakness of getting caught by the choke. Prior to the Cerrone/Diaz fight, he had rifled off six wins in a row, four via stoppage and he's a huge fan of the rear-naked choke - something Guillard knows all too well. Prior to Guillard's fight vs Fabricio Camoes (a well-known BJJ artist), he switched camp to the Blackzillians in Florida and though wasn't as blindly aggressive as we've been used to seeing him - he fought a good fight and was never in any trouble vs Camoes.
My thought is that Cerrone is going to get caught up in fighting how Guillard wants, and will try to stand and box with Guillard. If Cerrone is able to mix leg-kicks in, he has the advantage, but if he doesn't - this is Guillard's fight to lose. Right now Guillard is +250 and that's a good price given so many unknowns and that he's possibly the best KO artist at 155.
Couple of other interesting notes:
What happened to Jake Shields? He's fighting Ed Herman - a guy I can never get a read on, an inconsistent fighter, but seems to have the moxy to know which way you're betting and mess you (me) up. Shields is moving up in weight and last time he was there, was able to beat Dan Henderson pretty handily.
I don't trust Yushin Okami at -600; I don't like how he fights, I don't like the type of mental fighter he is (none whatsoever), so Buddy Roberts, even though he's the replacement of the replacement, is a value at +400.
Buddy Roberts +400 over Yushin Okami for one unit
Ken Stone +125 over Erik Perez for one unit
That will be it for today. Good luck fellas! :beerbang:
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Fight Card
----------------------------------------------------------
Benson Henderson vs. Frankie Edgar
Donald Cerrone vs. Melvin Guillard
Jake Shields vs. Ed Herman
Yushin Okami vs. Buddy Roberts
Justin Lawrence vs. Max Holloway
Dennis Bermudez vs. Tom Hayden
Jared Hamman vs. Michael Kuiper
Ken Stone vs. Erik Perez
Nik Lentz vs. Eiji Mitsuoka
Dustin Pague vs. Chico Camus
First and foremost: besides a lucky punch, I don't believe Edgar has much of a shot in this fight. Bendo is one of only three fighters (the other two being GSP and Jon Jones) that breaks down what you're good at, and beats you with it. Bendo will never be out of shape, and was never in trouble (believe me, go watch the first fight) in their previos matchup. Bendo's cut takes three weeks, and has it down to a science, so there is no way he comes in tired or exhausted from a quick cut. That being said, with the fight being in Denver, Colorado, one mile above sea-level, this can only favor Bendo. Let's look at Edgar...
Penn got a rematch because Edgar's victory was out of left-field. At the time it was one of the biggest upsets in all of MMA (I believe he was like +600/+700), so obviously the former champion is going to get another shot. Penn never got things going against a guy who has a non-stop motor. Vs Maynard I, that was a fight!- it was close, and I remember scoring it a draw, one other at my party scored it Maynard, one for Edgar - so it was really close. The rematch - not even close; Edgar was able to score the takedown and outwork Maynard and his less-than-stellar cardio. Unfortunately for Edgar, he's good in a lot of things, but not great in anything. He will outwork most fighters, but not Bendo. He will knockout someone if they come in wild, but Bendo is meticulous with his distancing. Unfortunately Edgar's biggest strength in fighting comes in his wrestling, but that's undoubtedly Bendo's strength as well - if you can get him down. Bendo has the best takedown defense at 155. Frankie Edgar has heart, you have to give him that - but a fighter's heart comes into play when he's in a dogfight, when it's wild, when he's on the ropes. That's not going to happen tonight as Bendo dominates for unanimous decision win and Edgar eventually heeds Dana's word and moves down to 145 for a warm-up fight before taking on Jose Aldo.
"Smooth" Benson Henderson -200 over Frankie Edgar for eight units
I won't be betting the Donald Cerrone/Melvin Guillard fight. If I was to pick a side, I'd be taking Guillard here based on value, but there are tons of reasons to take both fighters. Here are a few points of the fighters: again the location: Cerrone has been training in Vail, Colorado the last few months so he's used to it - and he's never had an issue with cardio already, mind-you. Guillard just missed weight, by 1.5 lbs. Both fighters used to be sparring partners at Greg Jackson's camp, so they know each other very well. Both fighters are GOOD friends with one another, and at one time had a pact not to fight each other. Cerrone sometimes let's his emotions get the best of him (see the Nate Diaz fight). And then there's Guillard's weakness of getting caught by the choke. Prior to the Cerrone/Diaz fight, he had rifled off six wins in a row, four via stoppage and he's a huge fan of the rear-naked choke - something Guillard knows all too well. Prior to Guillard's fight vs Fabricio Camoes (a well-known BJJ artist), he switched camp to the Blackzillians in Florida and though wasn't as blindly aggressive as we've been used to seeing him - he fought a good fight and was never in any trouble vs Camoes.
My thought is that Cerrone is going to get caught up in fighting how Guillard wants, and will try to stand and box with Guillard. If Cerrone is able to mix leg-kicks in, he has the advantage, but if he doesn't - this is Guillard's fight to lose. Right now Guillard is +250 and that's a good price given so many unknowns and that he's possibly the best KO artist at 155.
Couple of other interesting notes:
What happened to Jake Shields? He's fighting Ed Herman - a guy I can never get a read on, an inconsistent fighter, but seems to have the moxy to know which way you're betting and mess you (me) up. Shields is moving up in weight and last time he was there, was able to beat Dan Henderson pretty handily.
I don't trust Yushin Okami at -600; I don't like how he fights, I don't like the type of mental fighter he is (none whatsoever), so Buddy Roberts, even though he's the replacement of the replacement, is a value at +400.
Buddy Roberts +400 over Yushin Okami for one unit
Ken Stone +125 over Erik Perez for one unit
That will be it for today. Good luck fellas! :beerbang:
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