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UFC 146: "Dos Santos vs. Mir", May 26th, Las Vegas, Nevada
Fight Card
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Junior Dos Santos vs. Frank Mir
Antonio Silva vs. Cain Velasquez
Dave Herman vs. Roy Nelson
Shane Del Rosario vs. Stipe Miocic
Lavar Johnson vs. Stefan Struve
Diego Brandao vs. Darren Elkins
Edson Barboza vs. Jamie Varner
C.B. Dollaway vs. Jason "Mayhem" Miller
Dan Hardy vs. Duane "Bang" Ludwig
Paul Sass vs. Jacob Volkmann
Kyle Kingsbury vs. Glover Teixeira
Mike Brown vs. Daniel Pineda
Getting this in before I have to leave for a wedding on Friday. When this fight was first announced the card was stacked - since then there has been a bunch of shuffling, but I still think top-to-bottom, we have the chance for an excellent card!
I'll be watching the Pineda and Teixeira fights - both newer to the UFC fighting respected veterans in their weight-class. I'm excited to see how they do. Think Mike Brown retires after this fight.
I think I'll be on Ludwig vs Hardy, especially as a dog. Hardy just doesn't impress, and hasn't for a long while. He's on a four-fight losing streak and with Ludwig's striking prowess, look for a quick KO. However, the longer Hardy goes without getting caught is to his advantage. He's got excellent cardio and is helping Mir train in Vegas. I just don't see enough of Hardy to be able to avoid the big shot.
Another interesting fight is Dollaway vs Mayhem. Miller looked awful vs Bisping though word has his cut did not go well. It was an embarrassment and a tale of two fighters going the opposite way. The Bisping/Boetsch winner has to fight the winner of Silva/Sonnen. Mayhem was a name to fill in on TUF and is probably why he's a small favorite (-170). Dollaway has lost two in a row, but to me this fight's line has Miller overvalued because of his name. He's also talked about retiring if he loses. I will probably be on Dollaway because of the inaccurate line.
Diego Brandao vs Darren Elkins probably is skewed as well. Brandao comes off a Bermudez win in TUF but as we saw Bermudez recently, he's so one-dimensional so the win isn't as cracked up as we thought. Elkins has the strength and KO power to throw Diego off his game. Again a -500 favorite though? Elkins +300 looks good for a bad line.
I'll definitely be on Stefan Struve - he's impressed as of recently, and even the loss to Travis Browne wasn't that bad - Browne is a bad dude! He's shown since the JDS fight that he cannot sit there and take a bunch of punches, but that he has to move and use his length and not just cover up. If he's able to withstand the fury in the first from Lavar - a fighter with nothing to lose, fighting just three weeks ago - expect him to win. Lavar Johnson replaces Mark Hunt and doesn't have the takedown defense Hunt does, so I expect it to go to the ground, where Struve will prevail. The lines have been flip-flopping lately - with Johnson -125/Struve -105 yesterday but now have since swapped to Johnson -105/Struve -125. On BetUS Struve is -110 so I might have to take him there.
Del Rosario vs Miocic pits two unbeaten, impressive heavyweights, but Del Rosario hasn't fought in over a year, and fading fighters coming back from a long layoff has proven to be worth while. Miocic has been impressive and is currently -155.
Roy Nelson vs Dave Herman - what can you say about Roy? He's been pitted up against some bad matchups and has lost recently. However, he's looked in better shape recently in back-to-back fights for being a fat guy. Herman possesses that KO power but Nelson has shown he can take a punch. Probably the best chin in MMA? Herman doesn't have the ground game and Nelson will be able to take it and keep it on the ground.
I'm still undecided on the JDS/Mir fight or Bigfoot/Cain fight. Like Bigfoot to bang with Cain, and as an almost 3-1 dog, like those odds. Mir doesn't have much of a chance, I think, versus muscular boxers (see Carwin or Brock II fights) and I don't buy his ability to get it to the ground. We still haven't seen JDS's ground game, and yes he's received a brown belt of Noguiera's BJJ. There's also the revenge/pride issue of Mir hurting JDS's mentor. At +350 I really don't even see a lot of value there. We'll see what the price is on Mir by sub though...
Fight Card
-----------------------------------------------------
Junior Dos Santos vs. Frank Mir
Antonio Silva vs. Cain Velasquez
Dave Herman vs. Roy Nelson
Shane Del Rosario vs. Stipe Miocic
Lavar Johnson vs. Stefan Struve
Diego Brandao vs. Darren Elkins
Edson Barboza vs. Jamie Varner
C.B. Dollaway vs. Jason "Mayhem" Miller
Dan Hardy vs. Duane "Bang" Ludwig
Paul Sass vs. Jacob Volkmann
Kyle Kingsbury vs. Glover Teixeira
Mike Brown vs. Daniel Pineda
Getting this in before I have to leave for a wedding on Friday. When this fight was first announced the card was stacked - since then there has been a bunch of shuffling, but I still think top-to-bottom, we have the chance for an excellent card!
I'll be watching the Pineda and Teixeira fights - both newer to the UFC fighting respected veterans in their weight-class. I'm excited to see how they do. Think Mike Brown retires after this fight.
I think I'll be on Ludwig vs Hardy, especially as a dog. Hardy just doesn't impress, and hasn't for a long while. He's on a four-fight losing streak and with Ludwig's striking prowess, look for a quick KO. However, the longer Hardy goes without getting caught is to his advantage. He's got excellent cardio and is helping Mir train in Vegas. I just don't see enough of Hardy to be able to avoid the big shot.
Another interesting fight is Dollaway vs Mayhem. Miller looked awful vs Bisping though word has his cut did not go well. It was an embarrassment and a tale of two fighters going the opposite way. The Bisping/Boetsch winner has to fight the winner of Silva/Sonnen. Mayhem was a name to fill in on TUF and is probably why he's a small favorite (-170). Dollaway has lost two in a row, but to me this fight's line has Miller overvalued because of his name. He's also talked about retiring if he loses. I will probably be on Dollaway because of the inaccurate line.
Diego Brandao vs Darren Elkins probably is skewed as well. Brandao comes off a Bermudez win in TUF but as we saw Bermudez recently, he's so one-dimensional so the win isn't as cracked up as we thought. Elkins has the strength and KO power to throw Diego off his game. Again a -500 favorite though? Elkins +300 looks good for a bad line.
I'll definitely be on Stefan Struve - he's impressed as of recently, and even the loss to Travis Browne wasn't that bad - Browne is a bad dude! He's shown since the JDS fight that he cannot sit there and take a bunch of punches, but that he has to move and use his length and not just cover up. If he's able to withstand the fury in the first from Lavar - a fighter with nothing to lose, fighting just three weeks ago - expect him to win. Lavar Johnson replaces Mark Hunt and doesn't have the takedown defense Hunt does, so I expect it to go to the ground, where Struve will prevail. The lines have been flip-flopping lately - with Johnson -125/Struve -105 yesterday but now have since swapped to Johnson -105/Struve -125. On BetUS Struve is -110 so I might have to take him there.
Del Rosario vs Miocic pits two unbeaten, impressive heavyweights, but Del Rosario hasn't fought in over a year, and fading fighters coming back from a long layoff has proven to be worth while. Miocic has been impressive and is currently -155.
Roy Nelson vs Dave Herman - what can you say about Roy? He's been pitted up against some bad matchups and has lost recently. However, he's looked in better shape recently in back-to-back fights for being a fat guy. Herman possesses that KO power but Nelson has shown he can take a punch. Probably the best chin in MMA? Herman doesn't have the ground game and Nelson will be able to take it and keep it on the ground.
I'm still undecided on the JDS/Mir fight or Bigfoot/Cain fight. Like Bigfoot to bang with Cain, and as an almost 3-1 dog, like those odds. Mir doesn't have much of a chance, I think, versus muscular boxers (see Carwin or Brock II fights) and I don't buy his ability to get it to the ground. We still haven't seen JDS's ground game, and yes he's received a brown belt of Noguiera's BJJ. There's also the revenge/pride issue of Mir hurting JDS's mentor. At +350 I really don't even see a lot of value there. We'll see what the price is on Mir by sub though...
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