Tweet
Saitama Super Arena, Saitama, Japan
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Main card
Frankie Edgar (c) vs. Ben Henderson
Quinton Jackson vs. Ryan Bader
Mark Hunt vs. Cheick Kongo
Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Jake Shields
Yushin Okami vs. Tim Boetsch
Hatsu Hioki vs. Bart Palaszewski
Anthony Pettis vs. Joe Lauzon
Preliminary card (FX)
Takanori Gomi vs. Eiji Mitsuoka
Norifumi Yamamoto vs. Vaughan Lee
Riki Fukuda vs. Steve Cantwell
Takeya Mizugaki vs. Chris Cariaso
Preliminary card (Facebook)
Zhang Tiequan vs. Issei Tamura
Staying away from most of the prelims, because I traditionally don't do well with Asian fighters, and though I've heard of most of these fighters- I don't know nearly enough about them to be betting for or against them.
That being said, I think we have a great main card here. Starting first is Anthony Pettis vs Joe Lauzon. Pettis is best known for his fight against Ben Henderson when he won the WEC title with that flying matrix kick. He came over to the UFC and lost to Clay Guida, in what would be a terrible matchup for any UFC newcomer. That being said, he was active off his back, and his wrestling has improved - as we saw in his latest win over Jerramy Stephens. Joe Lauzon stopped Melvin Guillard in under a minute by rear naked choke the last time, and surprised a lot of people coming into the fight on short notice. Five of his last six fights have ended in submissions, with him going 4-1 in those five. Currently Pettis -220 and Lauzon +175 and I think the line is pretty right, but Lauzon has the line advantage here.
Next up is Bart Palaszewski against Hatsu Hioki, pretty thin odds considering Hioki's relevance in Japan. Palaszewski is a great fighter, with over 30 wins to his credit, but has weaknesses, though he has wins over Anthony Pettis in WEC and most-recently, Tyson Griffin. Hioki looked lackluster in his split decision win over George Roop, and I really compare Palaszewski to Roop as guys who can come at you with a barrage of attacks, plan accordinly and pouce, but I see Hioki putting on a performance for his home country and taking this fight. Hioki has never been finished and I do not see this happening now. Hioki -170, Palaszewski +140.
Tim Boetsch vs Yushin Okami is an interesting fight. Okami coming off the loss to Anderson Silva while Boetsch coming off wins in six of his last seven fights losing to a Phil Davis kimura. Boetsch is pretty well rounded, finishing his opponents via strikes and subs, while Okami prefers to grind you out and KO you or take it to the judges. I don't have a great tag on this fight, but Okami -375, Boetsch +275
Jake Shields -350, Yoshihiro Akiyama +250
Chieck Kongo -350, Mark Hunt +250
Really don't have anything to add from these two fights. Shields coming off a couple of losses and no one is talking about him lately, but these odds are too big and I cannot figure out Akiyama, guy can take a punch and go to war, but never seems to do enough to impress me. Kongo again is up and down, susceptible chin, and Hunt has the power but again, too big of odds here.
For some reason I think Rampage retires here after this fight, win, lose, or draw. Back in Japan where he dominated Pride for so long, does he have what it takes to get up for the fight? We thought he would vs Matt Hamill, we thought he might vs Rashad Evans, but really the guy has lost the will to KTFO you. You have to go back to December 2008 for his last KO victory - vs Wanderlei Silva, and then a year before against Chuck Liddell, it seemed at that time they were quite stunning KOs but in reality, both had lost their chins. Bader though, might be someone who can grind out a win. We saw him KO Jason Brilz most recently, after his first two career losses - both by rear-naked choke from Tito Ortiz and Jon Jones. I really don't see Rampage taking it to the ground. He'll want to have a war, and I think Bader brings it. I'll most likely be on Bader +200 here
Rampage Jackson -260, Ryan Bader +200
Edgar is one of those fighters that just wins. He hasn't gotten any respect from the linesmakers, probably in part because he's really nothing special. His speed is what sets everything up though. Not the best wrestling - I think Bendo has better. Not the best KO power. His grappling is pretty good though. In the end, I'd never want to bet against him. Bendo on the other hand has been impressive since losing to Pettis over in WEC. The guy out wrestled and whooped Jim Miller, Clay Guida, and Mark Bocek since coming over. This is a very tough fight that I'll be staying away from. A decision either way would not surprise me.
Frankie Edgar -135, Ben Henderson +105
I'll have my picks (to fade :laughing:) tomorrow.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Main card
Frankie Edgar (c) vs. Ben Henderson
Quinton Jackson vs. Ryan Bader
Mark Hunt vs. Cheick Kongo
Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Jake Shields
Yushin Okami vs. Tim Boetsch
Hatsu Hioki vs. Bart Palaszewski
Anthony Pettis vs. Joe Lauzon
Preliminary card (FX)
Takanori Gomi vs. Eiji Mitsuoka
Norifumi Yamamoto vs. Vaughan Lee
Riki Fukuda vs. Steve Cantwell
Takeya Mizugaki vs. Chris Cariaso
Preliminary card (Facebook)
Zhang Tiequan vs. Issei Tamura
Staying away from most of the prelims, because I traditionally don't do well with Asian fighters, and though I've heard of most of these fighters- I don't know nearly enough about them to be betting for or against them.
That being said, I think we have a great main card here. Starting first is Anthony Pettis vs Joe Lauzon. Pettis is best known for his fight against Ben Henderson when he won the WEC title with that flying matrix kick. He came over to the UFC and lost to Clay Guida, in what would be a terrible matchup for any UFC newcomer. That being said, he was active off his back, and his wrestling has improved - as we saw in his latest win over Jerramy Stephens. Joe Lauzon stopped Melvin Guillard in under a minute by rear naked choke the last time, and surprised a lot of people coming into the fight on short notice. Five of his last six fights have ended in submissions, with him going 4-1 in those five. Currently Pettis -220 and Lauzon +175 and I think the line is pretty right, but Lauzon has the line advantage here.
Next up is Bart Palaszewski against Hatsu Hioki, pretty thin odds considering Hioki's relevance in Japan. Palaszewski is a great fighter, with over 30 wins to his credit, but has weaknesses, though he has wins over Anthony Pettis in WEC and most-recently, Tyson Griffin. Hioki looked lackluster in his split decision win over George Roop, and I really compare Palaszewski to Roop as guys who can come at you with a barrage of attacks, plan accordinly and pouce, but I see Hioki putting on a performance for his home country and taking this fight. Hioki has never been finished and I do not see this happening now. Hioki -170, Palaszewski +140.
Tim Boetsch vs Yushin Okami is an interesting fight. Okami coming off the loss to Anderson Silva while Boetsch coming off wins in six of his last seven fights losing to a Phil Davis kimura. Boetsch is pretty well rounded, finishing his opponents via strikes and subs, while Okami prefers to grind you out and KO you or take it to the judges. I don't have a great tag on this fight, but Okami -375, Boetsch +275
Jake Shields -350, Yoshihiro Akiyama +250
Chieck Kongo -350, Mark Hunt +250
Really don't have anything to add from these two fights. Shields coming off a couple of losses and no one is talking about him lately, but these odds are too big and I cannot figure out Akiyama, guy can take a punch and go to war, but never seems to do enough to impress me. Kongo again is up and down, susceptible chin, and Hunt has the power but again, too big of odds here.
For some reason I think Rampage retires here after this fight, win, lose, or draw. Back in Japan where he dominated Pride for so long, does he have what it takes to get up for the fight? We thought he would vs Matt Hamill, we thought he might vs Rashad Evans, but really the guy has lost the will to KTFO you. You have to go back to December 2008 for his last KO victory - vs Wanderlei Silva, and then a year before against Chuck Liddell, it seemed at that time they were quite stunning KOs but in reality, both had lost their chins. Bader though, might be someone who can grind out a win. We saw him KO Jason Brilz most recently, after his first two career losses - both by rear-naked choke from Tito Ortiz and Jon Jones. I really don't see Rampage taking it to the ground. He'll want to have a war, and I think Bader brings it. I'll most likely be on Bader +200 here
Rampage Jackson -260, Ryan Bader +200
Edgar is one of those fighters that just wins. He hasn't gotten any respect from the linesmakers, probably in part because he's really nothing special. His speed is what sets everything up though. Not the best wrestling - I think Bendo has better. Not the best KO power. His grappling is pretty good though. In the end, I'd never want to bet against him. Bendo on the other hand has been impressive since losing to Pettis over in WEC. The guy out wrestled and whooped Jim Miller, Clay Guida, and Mark Bocek since coming over. This is a very tough fight that I'll be staying away from. A decision either way would not surprise me.
Frankie Edgar -135, Ben Henderson +105
I'll have my picks (to fade :laughing:) tomorrow.
Comment