UFC Fight Night 23

[akatdrake]

AKA Fight for the Troops 2 - taking place a week from today, January 22, Fort Hood, Killeen, Texas.

Early lines:

Evan Dunham (11-1) -260 vs Melvin Guillard (26-8-2) +200

Matt Mitrione (3-0) -260 vs Tim Hague (12-4) +200

George Roop (11-6-1) +200 vs Mark Hominick (19-8) -260

Joey Beltran (12-4) +180 vs Pat Barry (5-2) -230

Cole Miller (17-4) -200 vs Matt Wiman (12-5) +160

Undercard:

DaMarques Johnson (11-8) vs. Michael Guymon (12-4-1)
Yves Edwards (39-16-1) vs. Cody McKenzie (12-0)
Waylon Lowe (9-3) vs. Willamy Freire (18-3)
Amilcar Alves (11-2) vs. Charlie Brenneman (12-2)
Rani Yahya (15-6) vs. Mike Thomas Brown (24-7)
Will Campuzano (8-3) vs. Chris Cariaso (10-2)

Couple of early thoughts... Dana White has already said if Hominick takes care of Roop, he'll fight Jose Aldo in UFC 129, that has to be motivation enough for the big-fave. Also, Pat Barry coming off that embarrassing and possibly thrown loss vs Mirko Cro-Cop. Right now a Hominick/Barry parlay is at -101 and that might be the play of the night.

Main event looks like it will be a fun, quick one. You can count on a fun balls-to-the-wall fight with Guillard even though he tends to let down. On the undercard, looking at Cody McKenzie off TUF 12 and Mike Thomas Brown replacing Jung against Yahya, Brown just lost to Diego Nunes on the first of the month...

More thoughts later on in the week and when I finally get undercard odds.

[xHeroOfTheDayx]

Evan Dunham has the best value, and highest win probability on this list. Laying -260 while getting about -900 value. Doesn't get better than that.

Guillard is a great athlete, and has some nice flash. Which is the only reason this line is not as inflated as it should be. He struggles tremendously against top fighters with elite grips. Guilliard is almost guaranteed to get choked out via Rear naked, Guilli, or triangle. 1st, or 2nd round.

[xHeroOfTheDayx]

The rest of the card is iffy. All these -200(+) favorites, should all be around -130 to -190. Playing all the dogs minus Guillard for an equal amount should result in a profit.

[akatdrake]

Thanks for your input Hero - hopefully we can make a habit of posting some MMA picks. I watch a lot of fights, but tend to make picks based on value.

I agree with you and say this card is full of inflated lines. Unlike the last card with some great ones, I cannot put much stock into the dogs here. I'm not willing to back Guillard, Hague, Beltran, or Wiman. Roop has nothing to lose, so that might be worth it, but that's about it. I'll most likely be making a small parlay and watching the action. :thumbs:

[akatdrake]

Decided on a couple of bets for this card, mostly some unforseeable circumstances will hinder me from watching the fight in it's entirety...

Evan Dunham/Mark Hominick/Pat Barry +175 for 1 unit

Cody McKenzie +210 for 1 unit

Love this guy's mantra, and even though he's awkwardly unathletic, you gotta love the guy's who just win. I'll take a flyer here.

Rani Yahya +250 for 1 unit

Mike Brown just fought on the 1st of the month, so I'm fading his fatigue (OSP just fought three times in 17 days on the recent Strikeforce card and you could see his fatigue), and he's older and has been up and down lately. Enough to take the doggie at this price.

Best of luck guys!!! :thumbs:

[akatdrake]

Great card from what I heard - was not able to see it. Hit Rani +250 to have an even night. Missed the Cody McKenzie, though it seems from the recap, he had his chance (part of Fight of the Night). Evan Dunham gets beat down by Guillard and ruins my parlay. Oops.

UFC Fight Night 23: 1-2, +0.50 units

MMA YTD: 3-6-1, +0.60 units