Wyoming vs. Fresno State Odds, Analysis, Prediction ATS 11/25/22

Wyoming Cowboys (7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS) vs. Fresno State Bulldogs (7-4 SU, 4-7 ATS)

College Football Week 13

Date and Time: Friday, November 25, 2022 at 10PM EST

Where: Bulldog Stadium, Fresno, California

TV: Fox Sports One

Point Spread: WYO +15/FRES -15 (Bovada – Have you seen their incredible live wagering platform? It’s all on one page, not clunky/slow like others and they have a ton of offerings!) 

Over/Under Total: 50.5

The Wyoming Cowboys come into Bulldog Stadium on Friday for a Mountain West faceoff with the Fresno State Bulldogs. Fresno is coming off a 41-14 thumping of Nevada on Saturday for their sixth win in a row. Wyoming is also 7-4, coming off a 20-17 loss to Boise, where they led in the fourth quarter before getting nipped at the wire. The loss ended a 4-game winning streak, as both teams have been pretty good in the second half of the season, looking to end this season strong.

What’s at Stake?

For the Cowboys, the picture is a little murkier. Despite a strong move late in the season and a string of conference wins, they’re in the Mountain division, looking up at Boise, who is unbeaten in conference play. Having just lost to the Broncos, there is no route to the top slot for the Cowboys. For Fresno, however, things are a little better in the West division, where they are atop the standings. San Diego State is one game back, and Fresno already beat the Aztecs. But with Boise State still looming in their regular-season finale, a loss here could make things a little stressful, whereas a win guarantees them two shots at Boise, first in the finale and then the conference title game.

Last Meeting

We don’t want to get too hung up on what happened last season. There are a lot of new faces on both sidelines. Still, in Wyoming, the Bulldogs blanked the Cowboys 17-0. Wyoming made it tough on Fresno QB Jake Haener, who had to press for every first down in a massive struggle. But two TDs and a field goal were enough against a Wyoming team that did a good job of blowing things on their own with four combined picks and a slew of mistakes.

Hope for the Cowboys

This Wyoming offense has seen a nice boost with the play of Utah St. transfer Andrew Peasley. As of press time, an undisclosed issue has him currently holding the questionable tag, so that’s worth keeping an eye on leading up to game time. He’s not a whirlwind, to be sure, but his efficient passing game, aided by a lively set of legs, is an asset to this offense. Experienced Cowboys back Titus Swen is nearing 1000 yards with nice support from other complementary backs. Aerially, it’s a challenge, but with a steady run game and an improving “D,” they’ve done pretty good for themselves the last few seasons.

To go five games in this conference without allowing a team to surpass 20 points is quite a feat, and Wyoming is hoping their defense can replicate some of the dominance they showed last season in this very spot. They’ve gotten better over the course of the season, and their showing against Boise on Saturday adds a real air of quality to what this “D” has done in the last handful of weeks. DeVonne Harris and Oluwaseyi Omotosho add a robust dose of pass-rush on a defense that has developed a bigger flair for big clutch play, last week notwithstanding.

Edges for the Bulldogs This Week

Getting in front of a home crowd at the culmination of a successful season that started off badly should result in having a small edge. The support is enthusiastic, and they’re right on the precipice of having a chance to take down this conference. Offensively, they’re on another level from Wyoming, with vitality emanating from both the air and pass. Wyoming has shown they can curtain Haener and Company, but the Bulldogs’ offense is even more dialed in now, riding the wave of a long winning streak where they’ve been averaging 41 points a game in their last five contests.

Even if they’re more aerial by nature, their run game is hardly an afterthought, with Fresno State back Jordan Mims over 1000 yards and with 12 touchdowns. The efficient Haener has only three picks on the season on nearly 75% completions. He works with dangerous receivers like Jalen Moreno-Cropper, Nikko Remigio, Zane Pope, and Erik Brooks. With four straight games of over 300 yards, we’ll see if the Wyoming secondary thrives as they much as they did last week.

More Picks: Get Jay’s South Carolina at Clemson Recommended Bet for Week 13

Red Flags for Wyoming

We see a lot of close games this season for Wyoming, where their defense-heavy/run-first approach can resonate against inferior teams from the Mountain West. While it worked somewhat against Boise last week, generally, they’ve been a little out of their element against the more offensively-talented teams they’ve faced this season. The defense either doesn’t do enough to win the day, or their offense simply can’t keep pace with their lack of options. They’re not a team built to play from behind.

Lay the Points

It’s not easy laying points like this against Wyoming. If their defense is, in fact, becoming more the real deal and they can curb the Fresno attack, the Bulldogs are going to be in a tough spot, forced to basically keep Wyoming off the board if they want to cover. Both of these things happened last season, and I sense something similar, but less stark, this time around. I see both offenses doing better, with Wyoming unable to keep pace late as the Bulldogs lock up a spot in the conference championship. I’ll take Fresno State.

Loot’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Fresno State Bulldogs minus 15 points. Bet your Week 13 NCAA football games for FREE by taking advantage of a 100% real cash bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 when you enter bonus code PREDICT100 at MyBookie Sportsbook!