Wyoming Cowboys vs. Boise State Broncos Spread Pick

Wyoming Cowboys (5-2 SU, 4-2-1 ATS) vs. Boise State Broncos (3-4 SU, 2-4-1 ATS)

College Football Week 9

Date and Time: Saturday, October 28, 2023 at 5:30 PM EDT

Where: Albertsons Stadium, Boise, Idaho

TV: Fox Sports 2

Point Spread: WYO +5/BSU -5 (Bovada)

Money Line: WYO +175, BSU -210

Over/Under Total: 49

The Wyoming Cowboys come to Boise for a big Mountain West matchup with the Boise State Broncos on Saturday. Both teams got last week off to rest their bones for this game. And neither team went into the off-week on a high note. Boise State came out on the wrong side of a 31-30 loss to Colorado State, slipping below .500 and needing something to save their season from mediocrity. Wyoming, meanwhile, saw a nice run of wins end at the hands of a good Air Force team, 34-27. Who can come off the break and get it done in Boise this week? Let’s break it down!

Gaining Our Bearings

After the week off, let’s just get a sense of where these teams stand. Wyoming’s two losses so far are fairly forgivable, giving their 5-2 mark an air of quality. Air Force is really tough, especially in the Mountain West, and their other loss was to Texas. In those losses, they covered the spread with room to spare. With a week one win over Texas Tech and conference wins over New Mexico and Fresno State, they enter this spot in apparent fine working order. It is worth noting, however, that despite the gap narrowing between the two programs in recent years, tenth-year Wyoming head coach Craig Bohl has only seen his team beat the Broncos once, and that was in 2016. And there were some decent Wyoming teams in that mix, too.

Still, this Boise team seems more subdued than recent incarnations of the team. On one hand, a week one throttling at the hands of Washington was forgivable, a loss the next week to UCF less so. And in their last five, their two losses are by a combined four points, along with a few conference wins in the mix. So, a twist and a turn here or there, and this is a different conversation. But all the close games, their inability to separate from lesser teams, and the games they didn’t manage to win has them looking a bit down. That doesn’t mean that when at home and in this context that they can’t deliver, and in this specific spot, it’s difficult to remember the last time they didn’t.

What to Expect

Wyoming QB Andrew Peasley is taking snaps in his sixth season in the FBS ranks and offers an experienced hand, but alas, the Wyoming offense we know is heavy on the run. Harrison Waylee is a nice back with a lot of support behind him, including the nifty feet of their quarterback. Waylee, however, is questionable, and with 540 yards, he would be missed if he’s out for this one. Still, there has been a bit more aerial balance, and with receivers Wyatt Wieland and Ayir Asante, along with TE Treyton Welch combining for ten touchdown catches, they have different things they can wield on a Boise defense that hasn’t been very stingy in recent outings. A lot of that leakiness has been aerial, but there have been enough spots where they’re not stout against the run to give this Wyoming offense some real hope.

A lot of Boise State’s optimism in this spot rides on their offensive firepower. There is a slight lack of stability at the QB position, and we will see if they stick with dual-threat QB Taylen Green after we saw Maddux Madsen in there a lot in their game against Colorado State. Whoever it is does have weaponry at their disposal. RB Ashton Jeanty has 868 yards and 15 TDs already. WR Eric McAllister is a big-play threat on the outside. The supporting cast isn’t great perhaps, and the line has betrayed them in spots, but they have the ability to get the chains moving with some of the better offensive pieces in the conference. It’s still part of the reason perennial conference power Boise State is 3-4 entering this spot, as this offense doesn’t always run smoothly.

Wyoming clearly has an edge on the defensive side of the ball, but they are far from iron-clad. We’ve seen other good backs produce against this unit already this season. In addition, we’ve seen a few disconcerting late-game fades from this group, a concern that could resonate in what is still a difficult place to play in Boise. If what happened against Air Force happens here, with Wyoming getting run over late on “D,” it’s going to be tough. We’ve seen this pattern play out in previous matchups between these two teams, where Wyoming in hanging in there, only to fade and allow Boise to come up on the sunny side of things when it’s all said and done.

Take the Home Favorite

There are some definite red flags with Boise with the losses and the close wins over San Jose State and San Diego State. And not having a really cemented quarterback heading into week nine isn’t ideal, either. While the closeness of their wins and losses can paint a few different images of Boise, perhaps the worsened state of their condition is a bit overstated by their 3-4 mark. In other words, they’re not that far off. Wyoming offers some difficult challenges on both sides of the ball, but I think superior offensive pieces and being at home count for a lot. And with Boise having the extra week to work out the kinks, I’d suspect we perhaps see a better overall product than what we saw in the first half of the season. I’ll take the Broncos in this one.

Loot’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Boise State Broncos minus 5 points.