WVU at TCU Point Spread Pick – Take the Points

West Virginia Mountaineers (3-1 SU, ATS 1-2) vs TCU Horned Frogs (3-1 SU, ATS 3-0)

Date: Saturday, September 30th

Location: Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX

TV: ESN2

Point Spread: WVU +10.5/TCU -10.5 (Did you know you can bet on games at -105 at BAS?)

Money Line: W. Virginia +343/Texas Christian -469

Over/Under: 51

The West Virginia Mountaineers and TCU Horned Frogs matchup in a Big 12 showdown at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, TX. The over/under for this matchup is currently 51 while TCU is favored by -10.5.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

In the most recent head-to-head matchup between the teams, TCU picked up the 41-31 win (last year). The TCU offense had a big game, putting up 41 points on 494 yards of total offense. For the game, the Horned Frogs picked up 17 first downs while going 5/12 on 3rd down. Defensively, they gave up 275 passing yards and 155 yards rushing.

West Virginia Mountaineers Recent Form:

West Virginia’s 20-13 win over Texas Tech moved their record to 3-1 as they head into this week’s matchup with TCU.

Going into the game, the over/under line was 53.5 points, which the teams did not surpass. Against the spread, West Virginia picked up a win as 5-point underdogs.

During their most recent win, quarterback Nicco Marchiol threw 21 passing attempts against Texas Tech. He concluded the game with 78 passing yards, completing 57.1% of his passes. Furthermore, he had two interceptions in the game.

Quarterback Nicco Marchiol also was productive in the running game against Texas Tech, carrying the ball 15 times for 72 yards. On his three receptions, Kole Taylor finished with one touchdown and 39 yards.

On defense, West Virginia finished their game against Texas Tech by giving up a total of 321 yards. Texas Tech threw the ball 43 times for 161 vs. West Virginia. While on the ground, the Mountaineers gave up 160 rushing yards. The West Virginia defense, going into this week’s game, holds 46th place for points allowed, allowing 18.5 points per game. Opponents have been gaining an average of 201.2 passing yards each game against them (59th in the country). On the ground, they’re yielding 109.8 rushing yards, ranking them 45th in college football.

Away Injury Report

TCU Horned Frogs Recent Form:

With a 34-17 win over SMU, TCU’s record now stands at 3-1 as they head into this week’s matchup with West Virginia.

Looking at the point-spread for this game, TCU covered as 6.5-point favorites. While on the over/under, the betting line was 62.5 at game time, resulting in a hit for the under.

In the win against SMU, quarterback Chandler Morris wrapped up the game with a QB rating of 127.21 after completing 23 of 32 passes for 261 yards. He also added three touchdowns to his performance.

Emani Bailey carried the rushing load for TCU against SMU, accumulating 126 yards on 25 attempts and finding the endzone one time. Chase Curtis paced TCU with his two receptions for 55 yards and one touchdown.

On defense, TCU finished their game against SMU, by giving up a total of 416 yards. SMU threw the ball 35 times for 258 vs. TCU. While on the ground, the Horned Frogs gave up 158 rushing yards. The Horned Frogs defense heads into this week’s matchup with 16 sacks and sitting 1st in QB hurries. So far, they’ve allowed 20.2 points per game (53rd). In the pass defense department, they’re 158th nationally, giving up 292.5 passing yards per game. Additionally, when it comes to defending the run, TCU’s defense is allowing 85 rushing yards per contest.

Home Injury Report

No Injuries Reported

Betting Trends

• West Virginia is 3-7 in their last ten games road games.
• TCU’s ATS record at home (last three) is 2-1.
• TCU’s ATS record in their five most recent games as underdog is 3-2.
• Over their last three games as the betting favorite, West Virginia has an ATS record of 2-1.

Line Movement:

The moneyline odds opened with Horned Frogs at -420 but have since shifted to -469. Based on the odds, West Virginia has a 23% chance of winning compared to TCU at 82%. Since the lines were initially posted, TCU has seen movement from -10 point favorites to their current line of -10.5 (-114). West Virginia, on the other hand, currently stands as +10.5 (-109) point underdogs on the road. While the over/under line for this matchup has stayed consistent since its opening at 51, there has been some action in the payouts, with the under payout shifting from -113 to its current value of -112.

Free Pick

West Virginia is going to come into the game looking to establish the run as they are 5th in the country in rush play percentage. Even though TCU defends the run well, I expect the Mountaineers to try to slow the game down, making this closer than expected. I like West Virginia +10.5.

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