WVU at Cincinnati Moneyline Pick: Barking Dog Alert

West Virginia Mountaineers (4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS) at Cincinnati Bearcats (5-3 SU, 4-3-1 ATS)
When: Noon ET, Saturday, November 9th
Where: Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
TV: FS1
CFB Betting Odds: WV +5 / Cin -5
Moneyline: WV +165 / Cin -200
Over/Under: 56.5

It’s essentially a Big 12 elimination game when Cincinnati hosts West Virginia on Saturday afternoon at Nippert Stadium. Both teams sit at 3-2 in conference play, just one game out of second place in the Big 12. Since the second-place team earns a spot in the upcoming Big 12 championship game, a win keeps championship hopes alive for either team, while a loss likely signals the end of those aspirations.

The Line

The CFB Week 11 betting market opened with Cincinnati as a -3.5 favorite over West Virginia, with an O/U around 57. Early betting action moved the Bearcats to -5. According to Sagarin’s CFB ratings, the line for this game should be around 5.5 points.

West Virginia Betting Preview

The Mountaineers snapped a two-game losing streak with a 31-26 win at Arizona two weeks ago, followed by a bye week. Playing as 5-point underdogs in Tucson, WVU utilized a touchdown off a fake field goal to jump to an early 10-0 lead and later expanded the margin to 31-13 before securing the win. Backup QB Nicco Marchiol, filling in for injured starter Garrett Greene, delivered a strong performance, completing 18 of 22 passes for 198 yards and two touchdowns, while adding 39 rushing yards.

Marchiol is expected to make his third career start with Greene listed as doubtful for Saturday’s game. At 4-4 overall, the Mountaineers need two more wins to reach bowl eligibility and are just one game out of second place in the Big 12. Additionally, they need three wins over their final four games to exceed their preseason win total of 6.5.

Cincinnati Betting Preview

The Bearcats, on the other hand, missed an opportunity to extend a winning streak last time out, falling 34-23 at Colorado two weeks ago. Like WVU, Cincinnati had a bye last week. Despite being 6-point underdogs, Cincinnati played Colorado evenly until just before halftime but then conceded 17 unanswered points. The Bearcats rallied late but ultimately fell short. Cincinnati has shown strong moments, but inconsistency has plagued them this season.

With a 5-3 overall record, Cincinnati requires just one more win to secure bowl eligibility and reach their season win total of 5.5. At 3-2 in the conference, they remain a contender for a spot in the Big 12 championship game.

These teams faced one common opponent this season, Pittsburgh. Cincinnati led Pitt 27-6 but ultimately lost 28-27, while West Virginia led 34-24 late in the fourth quarter but fell 38-34. The teams last met in 2023, with West Virginia taking a 42-21 home victory in a high-scoring game.

By the Numbers

West Virginia is averaging 408 yards per game this season, split evenly with 204 yards through the air and 204 on the ground. Defensively, the Mountaineers allow 383 yards per game, including just 122 rushing yards, despite playing the 15th-toughest schedule according to Sagarin.

Cincinnati averages 439 yards per game, including 172 rushing yards, while allowing 403 yards defensively. The Bearcats have faced the 52nd-ranked strength of schedule per Sagarin’s ratings.

Totals Report

The Over has hit in five of West Virginia’s eight games, with Mountaineers games averaging 57 total points. Meanwhile, the Under is 5-2 in Bearcats games, which average 50 points.

Free College Football Pick

Despite the potential absence of their starting quarterback, West Virginia should be able to rely on its strong rushing attack and backup QB Nicco Marchiol. We believe the oddsmakers may be overestimating the impact of West Virginia’s QB situation, and the Mountaineers’ defense holds an edge over Cincinnati. We like West Virginia to win outright on the money line.

Zank’s Pick: West Virginia to win outright on the money line (+165).

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