CFB Best Bet: Wisconsin Badgers at Northwestern Wildcats

Wisconsin Badgers (4-2 SU, 2-4 ATS) at Northwestern Wildcats (3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS)

Date/Time: Saturday, October 19th, 2024, noon ET

Where: Martin Stadium, Evanston, IL

TV: BTN

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Wis -7/NW +7

Moneyline: Wisc -285/Northwestern +230

Total: 41.5

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Two teams coming off big wins last week meet when Wisconsin battles Northwestern Saturday afternoon at the Wildcats’ temporary home at Martin Stadium in Evanston.

The Badgers are coming off their best two performances of the season, winning their last two games by a combined score of 94-13. Meanwhile, the Wildcats are fresh off their best effort of the season, a blowout victory at Maryland.

Which team is more likely to continue their strong play on Saturday?

The Line

The CFB Week 8 betting market opened with Wisconsin at -7 and an over/under of 41. Both figures were holding steady in early betting action.

According to Sagarin’s ratings, the line on this game should be 7.5 points.

Wisconsin Betting Preview

The Badgers are 4-2 on the season following a 42-7 rout of Rutgers last Saturday. Wisconsin drove two of its first three possessions to touchdowns, led 28-0 through three quarters, and cruised home for the easier-than-expected win.

The Badgers out-gained the Scarlet Knights 549-271, ran for 309 yards, and controlled time of possession at 35:25.

Two weeks ago, Wisconsin put up 589 yards of offense in a 52-6 thrashing of Purdue.

Wisconsin started the season 2-0 with lackluster wins over Western Michigan and South Dakota, but then got outclassed by Alabama, 42-10. The Badgers led USC at halftime 21-10 but faltered in the second half and lost 38-21.

Wisconsin was expected to finish in the middle of the Big Ten this season and is off to a 2-1 conference start. The Badgers might be rounding into form but have several tough games ahead, including Penn State, Iowa, Oregon, Nebraska, and Minnesota.

Northwestern Betting Preview

Meanwhile, the Wildcats are 3-3 after winning at Maryland last Friday night, 37-10. Northwestern, a 10-point underdog, jumped out to a 17-0 lead and never looked back.

Northwestern was out-gained by Maryland 355-283, but the Wildcats won the turnover battle 4-0, resulting in a +17 point differential.

Two weeks ago, Northwestern trailed Indiana, now undefeated, by just three points midway through the fourth quarter before falling 41-24. Three weeks ago, the Wildcats lost at Washington, 24-5.

Northwestern was predicted to finish near the bottom of the Big Ten but is halfway to bowl eligibility at 1-2 in conference play. However, they still face several tough opponents like Iowa, Ohio State, and Michigan.

Wisconsin-Northwestern Recent History

These teams have split their last 10 meetings straight up, but Northwestern is 7-3 ATS during that span, pulling off five upsets and keeping several other games close as underdogs. Last year, Northwestern went up to Madison as a 12-point dog and upset Wisconsin, 24-10.

College Football Betting Trends

• The underdog (Northwestern) is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these teams.

Totals Report

• Overs are 4-2 in Wisconsin’s games this season, which are averaging 50 total points.
• Totals are split 3-3 in Northwestern’s games, which are averaging 41 points.
• Unders are 7-3 over the last 10 meetings between these teams.

Free College Football Pick

We bet against Wisconsin last week, expecting Rutgers to perform better, but the Badgers played at a high level. We also bet on Northwestern last week, expecting Maryland to struggle as a 10-point favorite, and the Wildcats rewarded us with a big win. Wisconsin is the better team and should win outright, but Northwestern has a history of giving the Badgers trouble, including last year’s upset. We won’t be surprised if the Wildcats keep this game close, so we’re taking the points with Northwestern.

Zman’s Pick: Take Northwestern +7

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