Wisconsin at Rutgers Betting Analysis & Free Pick | 10/12/24

Wisconsin Badgers (3-2 SU, 1-4 ATS) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (4-1, 3-1-1), 10/12/24

When: noon ET Saturday, Oct. 12

Where: SHI Stadium

TV: BTN

CFB betting odds: Wis +2.5/Rut -2.5

Money line: UW +120/Rutg -140

Over/under: 40

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Rutgers just suffered its first loss of this season, a tough one out at Nebraska, while Wisconsin just snapped a two-game losing skid with a romp over Purdue. So both teams are 1-1 in conference play heading into Saturday afternoon’s Big 10 bash in Piscataway.

The Badgers are 5-0 against the Scarlet Knights since the teams became conference “rivals” but for this game Rutgers is favored over Wisconsin for the first time.

Can the Knights get their first win over Wisconsin? Or can the Badgers continue their run over Rutgers?

The Line

The CFB Week 7 betting market opened Rutgers at -2.5 over Wisconsin, with an O/U of around 42. Early betting action dipped that total two points down to 40.

Wisconsin Betting Preview

The Badgers are 3-2 on the season after pounding Purdue last Saturday in Madison 52-6. Wisconsin, favored at -11, scored the first 14 points of the game, led 21-6 at the half, then scored touchdowns on its first four possessions of the second half to pull away.

The Badgers out-gained the Boilermakers 589-216, out-rushed Purdue 228-99 and converted 8/14 on 3rd downs. However, let’s face facts; all that came against a bad Boilers team.

Two weeks ago Wisconsin led USC at the half 21-10, then lost the second half 28-0 and the game 38-21. Three games ago the Badgers got bounced at home by Alabama 42-10.

Wisconsin was expected to finish somewhere in the middle of the 18-team Big 10 this season and it’s 1-1 in conference play so far. But the Badgers already lost their starting QB and leading rusher to injuries and they didn’t look all that great when those two guys were healthy. Wisconsin’s back-up QB put up some nice numbers last week but as mentioned above Purdue stinks.

The Badgers are within three wins of keeping their 22-season bowl streak alive but with games yet to play against Penn State, Iowa, Oregon and Nebraska three more W’s might be hard to come by.

Rutgers Betting Preview

Meanwhile the Knights just took their first L of this season, 14-7 in the heat at Nebraska last Saturday. Rutgers trailed 14-0 at the half, finally pulled back to within one score with four minutes left and got the ball back late but couldn’t do anything with it.

The Knights did, however, manage a push of the spread as seven-point dogs.

Rutgers actually out-gained the Cornhuskers 264-261 and blocked two punts but blew several opportunities to score, including once on a 1st-and-goal from the Nebraska 2-yard line.

Two weeks ago Rutgers beat Washington, which just beat Michigan, 21-18 despite getting out-gained by 200 yards. Three weeks ago the Knights out-lasted Virginia Tech 26-23.

Rutgers was also expected to finish somewhere in the middle of the Big 10 this season and it’s also 1-1 so far. But from here the Knights get four of their last seven games at home, all winnable, and a couple winnable road games. Rutgers is playing against a wins O/U this season of 7.5 and right now we’d say the over is looking good.

Wisconsin-Rutgers Recent History

The Badgers are 5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS against the Scarlet Knights, all games played since Rutgers joined the Big 10 a decade ago. The first four of those meetings were basically Wisconsin blow-outs but last year, while the Badgers beat the Knights 24-13, Rutgers covered at +13.

College Football Betting Trends

Rutgers is 10-2 ATS its last 12 games as a home favorite.

Totals Report

Overs are 3-2 in Badgers games this season, which are averaging 50 total points.

Unders are 3-2 in Knights games, which are averaging 45 points.

Free College Football Pick

We expect Rutgers to win the ground battle in this game and that’s usually a good way to win a football game and cover a spread. Also, the Knights might be prime for a bounce-back performance, after falling at Nebraska last time out, while Wisconsin might be ripe for a letdown, after having everything go its way last week. Finally, Wisconsin beat Rutgers last year but the Knights kept it close and covered. Now, Rutgers is better than it was that day while the Badgers probably aren’t. We’re betting the Scarlet Knights Saturday.

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