Western Michigan vs. CMU Picks: Week 13 Predictions

Western Michigan Broncos (5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS) vs. Central Michigan Chippewas (3-7 SU, 3-6-1 ATS)
NCAA Football Week 13
Date/Time: Tuesday, November 19, 2024 at 7:30PM EST
Where: Kelly/Shorts Stadium, Mount Pleasant, Michigan
TV: ESPN2

The Western Michigan Broncos take on the Central Michigan Chippewas on Tuesday in Mount Pleasant. This annual meeting between these Michigan MAC schools has been a pretty good game lately. But after playing on nearly even terms for a century, we’ve seen the Broncos start to dominate this annual showdown, with five wins in the last six meetings and eight wins in their last ten, including last season’s 38-28 win for the Broncos. Neither team, however, is able to come into this with much momentum. After going on a nice run with four straight wins and turning their season around, WMU has dropped two straight, including last week’s 31-13 loss at Bowling Green. It’s been worse for the Chippewas, with last week’s 37-10 loss to Toledo being their fifth in a row, spoiling what was a decent start to the season. Who can rise up on Tuesday and notch the cover for us in this MAC showdown?

Central Michigan: Looking for the Silver Lining

It’s hard to look at this latest swoon for Jim McElwain’s squad and not see it as a death-spiral from which they might not escape. At the beginning of this slump, they were more-competitive, with some ugly routs coming down the pike the last few weeks really leaving the Chippewas looking ragged. They are now three-deep in the quarterback rotation, as the offense has been putrid with 30 points scored combined in their last three games, which isn’t going to get it done in this conference.

They are home and after some tough road-spots that could suit the Chippewas who do play better here. Their more-embarrassing setbacks have come on the road, so this could help. And whereas they’ve been getting smacked around by the more-premier teams in the MAC in recent weeks in a really tough patch of games, this week represents an easier challenge. They’re at home and while the Broncos are a respectable 4-2 in conference, they’ve been suffering the last few weeks and don’t exactly hit this spot on a crescendo. With WMU on the skids and the Chippewas in an easier matchup, will some of the things we saw them doing well earlier in the season start to manifest here? Can they get their run-game sparked with Marion Lukes leading the way? Can they cut down on mistakes aerially? Can they start unleashing what has been a decent pass-rush at times this season?

The Case for the Broncos

While the Broncos are suffering a bit lately, and that gives CMU an in, you could also say this is a better spot for the Broncos. Sure, it’s on the road, but it’s still in-state. This is a tough conference at the top and with a lot of parity and the Broncos saw that first-hand the last few weeks, with CMU representing an easier task. They’re hoping this is the spot to get QB Hayden Wolff untracked again, while wielding that dangerous Broncos run-game on this CMU defense, featuring Jaden Nixon and Jalen Buckley. They have several dangerous receivers and a good TE in Blake Bosma. They ran into some tough opposition the last few weeks with a dangerous NIU team and a road-spot against Bowling Green. While you worry about them being on the road again this week, they’ve had great success in spots against bottom-half teams from this conference. Against a Chippewas defense that has been waning of late, this seems like a good spot for the Broncos to rediscover their stride on that side of the ball.

Between the mistake-prone ways of the Central Michigan offense and them now being left with dregs at the QB position after some injury setbacks, this is a good spot for WMU to be very disruptive on defense. At their best, they can be very disruptive and register the kind of plays that can alter the direction of a game. They need all of it they can get, as overall, they’re not very stout. This is a spot where even a wayward CMU offense could potentially get some business done, but if we see the same mistakes we’ve been seeing, this is a bad defense to face, with the Broncos’ “D” at least being opportunistic to make up for their lack of rigidity.

What to Expect

I’d expect a good game from Mount Pleasant. Both teams have been losing, but are still out there giving a good effort. The weather won’t be a factor yet. But after seeing things go so well in conference to start, it has really gotten away from the Broncos, and I look for them to be going all-out in this spot to put an end to the bleeding. They’re not in good form, it’s a difficult road spot, and they’re facing an opponent that might not be as bad as they look on the surface. I don’t question whether CMU can run the ball or get after the opposing quarterback, hunker down, and make this a real grind on this field. I just think WMU’s overall superiority on offense will eventually resonate.

The Case for the Broncos

While the Broncos are suffering a bit lately, and that gives CMU an in, you could also say this is a better spot for the Broncos. Sure, it’s on the road, but it’s still in-state. This is a tough conference at the top and with a lot of parity and the Broncos saw that first-hand the last few weeks, with CMU representing an easier task. They’re hoping this is the spot to get QB Hayden Wolff untracked again, while wielding that dangerous Broncos run-game on this CMU defense, featuring Jaden Nixon and Jalen Buckley. They have several dangerous receivers and a good TE in Blake Bosma. They ran into some tough opposition the last few weeks with a dangerous NIU team and a road-spot against Bowling Green. While you worry about them being on the road again this week, they’ve had great success in spots against bottom-half teams from this conference. Against a Chippewas defense that has been waning of late, this seems like a good spot for the Broncos to rediscover their stride on that side of the ball.

Between the mistake-prone ways of the Central Michigan offense and them now being left with dregs at the QB position after some injury setbacks, this is a good spot for WMU to be very disruptive on defense. At their best, they can be very disruptive and register the kind of plays that can alter the direction of a game. They need all of it they can get, as overall, they’re not very stout. This is a spot where even a wayward CMU offense could potentially get some business done, but if we see the same mistakes we’ve been seeing, this is a bad defense to face, with the Broncos’ “D” at least being opportunistic to make up for their lack of rigidity.

What to Expect

I’d expect a good game from Mount Pleasant. Both teams have been losing, but are still out there giving a good effort. The weather won’t be a factor yet. But after seeing things go so well in conference to start, it has really gotten away from the Broncos, and I look for them to be going all-out in this spot to put an end to the bleeding. They’re not in good form, it’s a difficult road spot, and they’re facing an opponent that might not be as bad as they look on the surface. I don’t question whether CMU can run the ball or get after the opposing quarterback, hunker down, and make this a real grind on this field. I just think WMU’s overall superiority on offense will eventually resonate.

Lay the Number on the Road Favorite

Anyone seeing this as being a breeze for Western Michigan should exercise caution. CMU is on the rocks, but they’ve been in tough spots against teams doing a lot better than Western Michigan is heading into this week. I still envision Wolff having a closer-to-ideal day with his targets, along with his backs, giving the Broncos the kind of offensive variety that keeps the Chippewas at arm’s length as the Broncos get the win and cover this week. I’m taking Western Michigan.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Western Michigan Broncos minus 6.5 points.

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