Western Michigan vs. Bowling Green Week 12: CFB Expert Pick and Prediction

Western Michigan Broncos (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS) vs. Bowling Green Falcons (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS)
NCAA Football Week 12
Date/Time: Tuesday, November 12, 2024 at 7PM EST
Where: Doyt L. Perry Stadium, Bowling Green, Ohio
TV: ESPN2

The Western Michigan Broncos head into Ohio for a Tuesday night MAC battle against the Bowling Green Falcons. Both of these conference teams enter this game in a similar predicament, sitting at 5-4 overall, but each with a 4-1 record in the MAC, equaling the top record in the conference with four teams sitting at 4-1 in MAC play. Two of them do battle in this Tuesday showdown that could have big ramifications for this conference and where these teams end up by season’s end. Last Tuesday, Bowling Green kept it rolling, scoring their third win in a row over Central Michigan, 23-13. Western Michigan, however, wasn’t so fortunate, falling to NIU, 42-28, ending a 4-game winning streak and suffering their first loss in conference play. Who should we get behind in this one? Let’s break it down!

What to Make of the Broncos

Last week was a definite letdown, and even if the Broncos were only favored ever so slightly, it was a chance for them to really start making their conference-winning case. But after a decent start, things started to really get away from them, as Northern Illinois cruised to the finish a clear winner. It leaves one with an uneasy feeling about Western Michigan, where you’re almost forced to wonder if their success leading up to that point was based more on their opponents than anything they were doing great themselves. Watching it all fall so flat last week makes you wonder how the Broncos can spin out of this, with things remaining tough this week and a daunting road spot against a team that has latched onto some positive momentum.

I wouldn’t be so quick to badmouth head coach Lance Taylor’s Broncos. They were really able to tap into some newfound offensive heat in recent weeks, with Hayden Wolff at quarterback, commandeering a decent passing game. At the same time, the real juice on offense is being provided by their backs, with Jaden Nixon leading the way. But even as the Broncos were winning all those games in conference and putting up points, we perhaps ignored some of the issues on the other side of the ball. When placed in the context of  a better opponent, we saw last week what can happen. After giving up 42 to Ball State, 41 to Buffalo, and 42 last week to NIU, let’s just say that their defense has a ways to go before they can match the effectiveness of the offense. And when that defense hits a real sour note, as it did last week, it can really throw the whole operation into a tizzy.

Good Spot for the Falcons?

The Falcons took care of business the last two weeks, both on the road and both resulting in wins. It’s nice for them to return home, where they look to put the finishing touches on their regular season case. It has been a strong second half of the season for the Falcons, a loss to NIU their only setback since September. To go from 2-4 to being in the thick of a conference race attests to their wherewithal, as head coach Scot Loeffler has really started getting this group on the right track. And not that it necessarily means a lot now, but when the Falcons went into Kalamazoo last year and spanked the Broncos 34-10, a lot of guys still on this Bowling Green sideline were a big part of that, including QB Connor Bazelak and 1000+-yard tight end Howard Fannin, Jr.

The Falcons have a lot of weapons they can wield through the air and on the ground. Terion Stewart and Jaison Patterson lead the RB duties, and with Fannin, Jr. and the bevy of role-receivers at Bazelak’s disposal, they are an offense with some consistency and vitality. But it’s the other side of the ball that makes Bowling Green stand out as the more complete team overall. Even in losing to NIU, they gave up 17 points, while WMU gave up 42. And where we see Western Michigan allowing swelled-up point totals, most of Bowling Green’s opponents this season have struggled offensively. They’ve allowed 82 points combined in their last five games, while Western Michigan has allowed a combined 170 points in that same timeframe. The Bowling Green defense can be stout and also make big plays that can turn a game’s momentum. And last week, we saw Western Michigan QB Hayden Wolff start to wilt a bit amidst the defensive heat he was feeling. The Falcons look to bring some of that to bear this week at home.

Lay the Points on the Home Favorite

It’s not easy to sit here and say you feel all-that-great about laying a number like this on a team that has only surpassed the twenties in scoring once since week one, as Bowling Green has. They’re not a team you can count on to pile on points where laying more than a TD feels good in a conference game. I just feel that this is a context and a time of the season where Western Michigan’s issues, namely on defense, will truly continue to upend their whole plan. And against better defenses, their own offensive horsepower will continue to dissipate. In that realm, they can grow a bit impotent, and I suspect Bowling Green can cruise to the win and cover this week at home. I’m taking Bowling Green.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Bowling Green Falcons minus 8.5 points.

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