Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs Prediction ATS

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) vs. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS)

College Football Week 6

Date and Time: Thursday, October 5, 2023 at 7 PM EDT

Where: Joe Aillet Stadium, Ruston, Louisiana

TV: ESPN U

Point Spread: WKU -5.5 / LT +5.5 (Bovada – The BEST live betting platform on the planet!)

Money Line: W. Kentucky -230, La Tech +190

Over/Under Total: 59

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers take on the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Joe Aillet Stadium in a Thursday night Conference USA showdown in Ruston. Western Kentucky was able to reverse a two-game slide in their last game, beating Middle Tennessee State, 31-10, last Thursday at home. Louisiana Tech, however, also ended a two-game skid, beating UTEP, 24-10, to even their record at 3-3. With both teams successful in their conference opener, who can keep it rolling on Thursday?

Getting a Lay of the Land

The Bulldogs deserve some credit for already matching their 3-win totals from the last two seasons. They are hoping for better overall results in head coach Sonny Cumble’s second season at the helm, and early returns from 2023 are mostly positive. But beating UTEP and then beating a team that has been atop of the conference for a few seasons are two different things. WKU may have taken a step back this season, but they are dangerous in conference as we saw last week and in this context, they can really be a handful with experienced QB Austin Reed and his wide variety of weapons.

Still, some boosts to the Louisiana Tech program could really start to resonate in these more challenging conference games. Their quarterback Hank Bachmeier, might be familiar to college football observers after four seasons at Boise State. He has lent a little extra to this offense with his talent but has missed the last two games. They have two backs in Tyre Shelton and Keith Willis, Jr., who are very effective. And with a receiver crew led by reliable Smoke Harris and big-play WR Cyrus Allen, Bachmeier has some weapons to use on a Western Kentucky defense where their secondary is not their strength—of course, assuming he’s going to play.

Main Challenges for Louisiana Tech This Week

While the Bulldogs have seen a boost to their offense with the arrival of Bachmeier, their defense may still be of the mold we’ve seen in the past few seasons. Against Austin Reed and an unusual WKU offense that keeps their backs fresh with a rotation style of usage, along with a bevy of differently-abled receivers and ball-catchers, they should be tested. Reed himself has a good arm, a ton of experience in this conference, along with a nice set of legs that is just one more thing to keep defenses on the alert.

We’ve seen games this season where the defense undermines the entire Louisiana Tech operation. What they want to avoid is a repeat of the North Texas game, where a winnable spot was spoiled by complete slapstick on the defensive side of the ball, both against the run and the pass. They looked a little better in a loss to Nebraska and especially in beating UTEP last week. They get this one at home, so that’s worth something too. But their chances this week and whether the new-look offense can register in this spot largely comes down to how well they play on this side of the ball.

se Good Spot for Western Kentucky?

Good on the Hilltoppers for taking a potentially-dangerous Middle Tennessee offense last week and holding them to ten points, while twice picking off Nicholas Vattiato. We’ve seen a Hilltoppers’ defense this season applying a nice pass-rush in spots, while maintaining a high level of overall disruption with a slew of turnovers and other big plays. But despite a stout showing last week, there have been sequences this season where the Western Kentucky defense’s overall level of resistance did not match up with their big-play ability. A home Louisiana Tech offense might give them a little more heat. And for all the experience with Reed and this Western Kentucky offense, they haven’t played Louisiana Tech in a number of years, making this a new road experience for these guys.

Still, part of you can’t help but think that the issues the Hilltoppers face when taking on early-season opponents out of conference and out-of-their-wheelhouse foes like Ohio State, any shortcomings should be taken with a grain of salt. This is “show-and-go” time for the Hilltoppers, with their 14-2 mark in Conference USA since the beginning of 2021. Much like this week, we saw the Hilltoppers taking on another upgraded conference team last week and make easy work of them. And while the opponent and setting are unfamiliar for this bunch, odd with it being a conference game, this is still the canvas upon where WKU typically does its best work.

Granted, the Hilltoppers lost some people on defense that in a conference like this, could create some uphill battles. It’s just that you wonder if Louisiana Tech has perhaps already hit a crescendo just by being a team that could be bowl-eligible and respectable within this conference for a change. Them showing they can accomplish that is promising and their offense is pretty good. But this is yet another level and perhaps they’ve topped out as far as how high they can ascend for this season.

Take the Road Favorite

I think Louisiana Tech is improved this season and this is really a time to show it against a steady conference contender. It’s not an easy road-spot for a Hilltoppers team that has shown some kinks in their defense get exposed, something a home Bulldogs bunch will be looking to exploit this week. It’s just that this seems like a spot where we usually see the Hilltoppers deliver, and I think last week served notice that not just anyone from this conference is going to be able to hang in there with them so easily. I’ll take Western Kentucky.

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