West Virginia vs. Pittsburgh Predictions & Picks | Week 3

NCAAF Week 3 – West Virginia Mountaineers at Pittsburgh Panthers

Where: Acrisure Stadium (Pittsburgh, PA)

When: Saturday, September 14th at 3:30 PM EST

Watch: ESPN2

Betting Odds

Point Spread: WVU -2/Pitt +2
Over/Under: 63.0

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In this Big 12 vs. ACC battle, we see the West Virginia Mountaineers head to Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, to take on the Pittsburgh Panthers. Contrasting styles of play make this game an interesting watch, as it will be imperative for both sides to enforce their will early on. Both squads have had to face some adversity early in this young college football season so there should be no excuses made for poor performance come Saturday. While West Virginia and Pittsburgh are not your typical cream-of-the-crop football programs, there is plenty of history within both and a lot of intrigue and promise for the intended direction this year. Offseason additions as well as returning starters on both sides creates a mix of freshness and continuity that will be a delicate balance as we march forward. In this Saturday’s week three matchup, I think there is a clear-cut value play where one side is not getting the respect they deserve. Let’s look at how each team stacks up against one another and examine the critical playmakers who will leave their mark on the scoresheet in this one.

West Virginia travels from Morgantown to Pittsburgh fresh off a 49-14 win over Albany last weekend. Week 2 was much kinder to the Mountaineers compared to their Week 1 draw against No. 8 Penn State. WVU was actually able to hold Penn State scoreless in the first quarter of that game, but after being outscored 20-6 in the 2nd quarter, they would only muster another 6 points and lose by a score of 34-12. They showed some promise defensively but failed to make critical stops when it mattered most, allowing four passing touchdowns and one on the ground. In that contest, they allowed Penn State to have both a 100+ yard rusher and receiver. The Mountaineers got back on track in an unfair fight against Albany, and outside of a sloppy 2nd quarter, they controlled the game all day. They will need to have this type of effort on Saturday if they hope to contain a prolific Pittsburgh offense. West Virginia’s defensive rankings are quite poor, as they are hovering around the 200 mark in both total yardage and passing yardage allowed. They are slightly better defending the run but have still yielded 145 yards per game. The expectations were higher for this defense coming into the year, but they have yet to find their form. Offensively, WVU emphasizes the run behind RBs CJ Donaldson and Jaheim White while also benefiting from the scrambling ability of quarterback Garrett Greene. Greene has seen a clean scoresheet in his passing ability and has not thrown a pick yet this year, though he has only attempted 51 passes in total.

Pittsburgh is a program that has been on an upward trajectory in recent memory and entering this contest at 2-0, they hope to keep things rolling. An opening-week victory against Kent State saw the Panthers put 55 points on the scoreboard. In their second game, Pittsburgh found themselves down 27-13 to Cincinnati entering the 4th quarter but were able to shut their opposition out and score 15 unanswered points leading them to a 28-27 victory. Many people are grading that performance as a let-down, but from a betting perspective, Pitt was able to cover their +2-point spread and win the game outright as an underdog. Also worth noting, they covered the -23.5-point spread in their match with Kent State, making them 2-0 ATS on the season. Pittsburgh’s offense is the clear strength of this football team, and while the stats may be slightly skewed from their 55-point effort in week 1, they have a plethora of playmakers who can light up the scoreboard in the blink of an eye. Quarterback Eli Holstein has completed 67% of his pass attempts to the tune of 319 yards per game and six touchdowns so far. He has thrown an interception in both contests, so his ball control bears watching. Konata Mumpfield and Kenny Johnson have been the most targeted wide receivers and have benefited from Holstein’s ability to get the ball out quickly. Running back Desmond Reid has also been a stalwart in the passing game, adding yet another layer to worry opposing defenses. If worrying about the running back catches passes wasn’t bad enough, Reid has posted rushing lines of 148 and 145 yards in back-to-back games. He is as dynamic as they come and will definitely be a main focus of the Mountaineers defensive gameplan. Pittsburgh’s defense has been inconsistent, but their performance at the end of the Cincinnati game demonstrates that they are capable of shutting things down. The Panthers are much stronger against the run compared to the pass and rank 57th in rushing yards allowed per game.

My Pick: Pittsburgh Panthers ML (+110)

If you want to take the extra 2 points and take Pittsburgh +2, I wouldn’t blame you, but this is a game that the Panthers can win outright. They are an extremely tough matchup for West Virginia and excel in all of the areas where the Mountaineers do not. WVU’s best chance will be having success on the ground, but the Panthers have been stout defending the run and may force increased pass attempts from Garrett Greene. Furthermore, West Viriginia has not shown that they can stop the pass and if they get down early, Pitt can run away with the game. The extra motivational factor of being home underdogs should ignite a fire in the Panthers’ locker room, and their explosiveness will be too much to contain. I expect that this will be a high scoring affair which again favors the Panthers. Take the home dog and thank me when the ticket cashes.