West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions Pick & Predictions

West Virginia Mountaineers (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Penn State Nittany Lions (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)

College Football Week 1

Date and Time: Saturday, September 2, 2023 at 7:30PM EDT

Where: Beaver Stadium, University Park, Pennsylvania

TV: NBC

Point Spread: WVU +20.5/PSU -20.5 (Stop wasting money on -110 odds! Lay only -105 at BAS!)

Over/Under Total: 53

The West Virginia Mountaineers make the trip to University Park for a week one showdown with the Penn State Nittany Lions. It’s a tough week one matchup for the Big 12’s Mountaineers, facing a Big Ten power and defending Rose Bowl champion in what was an 11-2 Penn State squad. It may have been Penn State head coach James Franklin’s best team, and he looks for more of the same in his tenth season at the helm. For West Virginia, they’ve been mostly treading water, 22-25 under Neal Brown, who enters his fifth season and might need to do something good to save his gig. Will the Nittany Lions have an easy one here, or can the Mountaineers offer some resistance?

Are the Mountaineers Worth Getting Behind?

It’s a heck of a tough matchup. You’d hope with Brown on the hot seat, they could get a little fire in their belly and at least be the Mountaineers team that, even when subpar, could still be dangerous on occasion. In their defense, a lot of preseason Big 12 analysts may have gone a tad overboard in the negativity surrounding their 2023 prospects. They face massive questions at wide receiver and lose their lead back, but return some strong talent at RB. We’ll see if dual-threat QB Garrett Greene can fend off Nicco Marchiol for the starting gig, as is expected. But I think this offensive line should be the best Brown has had in his tenure, and maybe they can better turn loose some talented backs who at least showed flashes last season.

They face some harsh in-game realities in this matchup. On defense, they are small up-front and trying to replace some players. Some talent in the middle at the linebacker position is unlikely to be enough to assuage a huge and physical Penn State offensive line and their backs, Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. This could be the best offensive line Franklin has seen in his decade-long tenure at Penn State, and West Virginia doesn’t figure to match up well. Lee Kpogba is a good linebacker and has some guys around him, but if Penn State starts ripping off big runs without abatement, this could get ugly fast. But West Virginia, with that big offensive line with 2-3 possible NFL prospects on it, could be a handful for a Penn State defensive line that doesn’t flash a lot of size. If they can get their backs loose on a semi-regular basis, maybe they can make a run at this spread. They’re not going to pound Penn State, and they don’t have the workhorse big back to make it stick, but I wouldn’t rule out some offensive success for the Mountaineers in this spot.

Can Penn State Dominate?

The possibility of a Penn State throttling here is not to be dismissed. Their run game and O-line should have their way at times. Drew Allar is a five-star recruit who looks the part at 6’5.” The blue-chip QB steps into a nice situation with an ultra-fortified offensive line, along with the reliable Singleton and Allen at his disposal. While one defers to the recruiting and development acumen of Franklin and his staff, they are going to need to replace the production from losing their three top receivers. The problem for West Virginia is that the next batch up in the rotation is of the home run-hitting variety, led by KeAndre Lambert-Smith and Kent State transfer Dante Cephas. The West Virginia defense and those backing the Mountaineers this week are hoping there’s at least a tiny getting-up-to-speed period for Allar, who is seeing his first action as the full-fledged starter. And the pressure is on, with many thinking Allar’s arrival signals this program taking that next step. For a team that won 11 games and the Rose Bowl last season, those are some high-pressure goals, and maybe Allar comes out of the gates a little stiff.

Part of me thinks the Mountaineers’ Garrett Greene can be scrappy and is a QB who can make some people around him better. With a Penn State defense that is dealing with some player turnover and an interior defensive line that is more athletic than big, maybe this WVU offensive line can help Greene operate, get him to steal a few scores, convert some big third downs, and keep this one from getting utterly out of hand. Granted, the opposing end of that equation is certainly even more applicable, with that Penn State O-line looking to be dominant against this Mountaineers’ front seven. But there are times in games when working in a new piece like Allar is just disruptive enough to keep far more-talented teams from blowing an opponent out of the stadium.

Take the Points on the Road Dog

Sure, the Mountaineers are in a tough place to play. Beaver Stadium should be rocking for week one. And while the Penn State offense could conceivably bounce the West Virginia “D” right out of the park, this is a lot of points. I think the demise of the Mountaineers is a case that has generally been overstated, and I think they can be scrappy and physical enough in spots to keep this one somewhat in the realm of being semi-competitive while maybe not threatening to win. I can easily see a late score or some big plays on special teams or defense just being sufficient enough to keep an overlooked Mountaineers squad from getting totally toasted. I’ll take West Virginia.

Loot’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the West Virginia Mountaineers plus 20.5 points.

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