West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Houston Cougars Point Spread Pick

West Virginia Mountaineers (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS) vs. Houston Cougars (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS)

College Football Week 7

Date and Time: Thursday, October 12, 2023 at 7PM EDT

Where: TDECU Stadium, Houston, Texas

TV: Fox Sports One

Point Spread: WVU -2.5/HOU +2.5 (Bovada – SERIOUSLY consider checking out their live betting!)

Money Line: W. Va -140, HOU +120

Over/Under Total: 52.5

The West Virginia Mountaineers come to TDECU Stadium to take on the Houston Cougars in a Big 12 battle on Thursday. After a 2-3 start, the Cougars got a break to lick their wounds following a September 30 loss at Texas Tech, 48-29. Back at home, they look to get their first conference win in a tough spot with the 4-1 Mountaineers coming into town. Also off last week, West Virginia has already beaten Texas Tech and TCU in conference play and looks to keep it going with what would be their fifth win in a row this week. Who can get us the cover in Houston on Thursday?

Good Spot for WVU?

After four seasons of meandering around the .500 mark, Mountaineers’ head coach Neal Brown looks to have tapped into a nice formula this season. Unbeaten in four games since a season-opening loss at Penn State, conference wins over Texas Tech and TCU give their 4-1 start an air of quality. The wins over the Red Raiders and Horned Frogs were narrow, and maybe their liabilities will be exposed further down the line, namely an offense that doesn’t always fire. But for a Mountaineers team that was projected to be middling, they’re winning and showing some late-game clutch on both sides of the ball, making their start to this season a success.

Houston hasn’t seen their engines turn over just yet. The week off and getting this at home is a good way to cushion the walloping they took at the hands of Texas Tech, the same team West Virginia beat 20-13. It followed a win over Sam Houston State. In week one, they barely beat San Antonio, also getting hammered by another West Virginia victim in TCU, with an overtime loss to Rice also being in the mix. Granted, comparing teams along the lines of common foes often doesn’t work, and Houston in top gear has an offense that might have a higher ceiling than the Mountaineers. But in the still-young season, we have already seen their defense fall flat a handful of times, and being at home and coming off a weeklong break isn’t going to fix that.

Hope for Houston

While not defensively stout or well-rounded overall, Houston is dangerous. QB Donovan Smith is a dual-threat talent with 9 TDs aerially and another three on the ground. With him and Parker Jenkins, they can sometimes run the ball decently and take attention off what can be a vital air attack. Samuel Brown is a real workhorse receiver, and along with Joseph Manjack, IV., and Matthew Golden, the Cougars can move the ball well. Again, the defense is a massive drawback, even against non-explosive offenses, but some big-play ability can resonate from time to time, with Nelson Ceaser rushing the passer and the secondary being disruptive, with Malik Fleming and Alex Hogan having combined for five picks already.

At some point, however, the Houston defense is going to need to be good at something other than producing the occasional splashy play. Whether it’s Rice quarterback JT Daniels putting up over 400 passing yards against them or Big 12 offenses like TCU and Texas Tech having giant rushing bonanzas against this defense, it doesn’t bode well as they enter the thick part of their schedule. At home, however, and against this Mountaineers’ offense might be a spot to see some things go a little better.

Still without a cemented QB, West Virginia looks to be going with Garrett Greene, as Nicco Marchiol has also seen work behind center. Neither is really a dynamic thrower, though both are athletic. Greene has flashed a nice set of legs at times, and they’ve gotten some big plays from the ground game this season, but CJ Donaldson has been ho-hum as a lead back thus far, and other than the occasional big play from WR Hudson Clement and the contributions of a good tight end in Kole Taylor, the offense hasn’t exactly been electric.

Tough Spot for Houston This Week?

Other than a week one flop against a highly-ranked Penn State team on the road, we’ve seen this WVU defense excel in tough spots. Against Pitt and Texas Tech, they allowed a total of one touchdown. And after falling behind against TCU, they held the Horned Frogs scoreless in the second half of their win. With playmakers like CB Beanie Bishop, Jr. and playmaking linebacker Lee Kpogba, they also have the ability to make things happen, while also remaining stout, unlike the Houston defense.

It sets up as a scenario where the Cougars have to hope for a down day for the Mountaineers on the road, hoping their offense falls flat while they can muster some big plays to hit the finish line ahead. Or maybe the WVU “D” doesn’t show up, and they win a shootout. But barring one of these extreme kind of game scripts, it seems that Houston might be in trouble when paired against the overall competence and resourcefulness of West Virginia.

Take the Road Favorite

Wins over TCU and Texas Tech certainly do not spark a West Virginia revival. Similarly, a slow start in conference play for the Cougars is not a death knell. Houston is at home, and who’s to say that having a more-vital offense won’t win the day? I just think the combination of West Virginia’s tough defense and Houston having been very exploitable so far sets up for a situation where we see West Virginia pull away for the win and cover on Thursday night. I’ll take the Mountaineers.

Loot’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the West Virginia Mountaineers minus 2.5 points.