Week 9 Picks: Oklahoma Sooners vs. Kansas State Wildcats

Oklahoma Sooners (7-0 SU, 4-3 ATS) vs. Kansas State Wildcats (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS)
When: Saturday, October 26th, 2019 – 12:00 PM ET
Where: Bill Snyder Family Stadium – Manhattan, KS
TV: FOX

Point Spread: OU -23.5 / KSU +23.5 (BetNow)
Total: 58
Power Ratings: Kansas State +17

Takeaways From Week 8

No. 5 Oklahoma comes into this game undefeated, having finally cracked the top-five. OU was last in action last Saturday when the Sooners hosted the West Virginia Mountaineers. Closing as a 33-point favorite, OU allowed its backers to green up when it routed WVU by a score of 52-14.

The Wildcats come into this game having snapped a two-game losing streak. Most recently, Kansas State was in action last Saturday when it hosted the Horned Frogs of Texas Christian University. The Wildcats marched onto defeat TCU 24-17 to snap a two-game skid against the spread when it covered as a 4.5-point favorite.

How the Public is Betting the Oklahoma-Kansas State Game

At the present moment, 68% of the consensus like the Sooners here laying the points. As a result, the line has soared from the opening number of Oklahoma as a 20.5-point favorite. Since the open, Oklahoma is now laying an additional field goal to the Wildcats, which would certainly signal that the money has been pouring in on the Sooners. Nevertheless, such a significant line move of three points would undoubtedly show that all the value has been extracted from Oklahoma as it stands in its present state.

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The Historicals

The last time these two teams met was in 2018 in Norman, Oklahoma. Closing as a 24-point favorite, the Sooner Schooner would cruise to a 51-14 victory over Kansas State and provide an easy cover for those that got behind the Crimson and Cream.

Betting Trends

A trend that will bolster the public’s opinion of Oklahoma and enchant action on them hitherto is the fact that the Sooners are 4-1 ATS in their last five stints at Kansas State. For Over/Under players, the Over has gone 5-1 ATS in the previous six meetings between these two sides.

Injury Concerns

Oklahoma Tight End Grant Calcaterra is listed as questionable heading into this Big 12 conference match. Calcaterra has missed Oklahoma’s last two games due to an upper-body injury.

Why We Like Kansas State To Cover

Some other betting sites would suggest that the Wildcats are significantly undervalued as they could be taking back a touchdown more than they should. I conquer with such a position. First off, Kansas State will undoubtedly be insulted by the tag next to their name heading into this contest as they were ranked at one point this season and will feel slighted being such a heavy dog on their own turf. Kansas State will come into this contest with a chip on their shoulders as a result, and their coach Bill Snyder has a penchant for playing up to the level of elite competition. After all, in the last seven games between these two sides, K-State won two of the matches, and four of the seven games in this sample were settled by 10 points or less.

Keith Pick to Cover the Spread: Kansas State +23.5

I have said it before, and I will say it again: The Oklahoma offense is a juggernaut. However, Kansas State’s defense is excellent. The “Wabash Cannonballs” bode a top-five passing defense that allows the opposition to throw for just 152.5 yards per game. To complement this, K-State is stingy and allows just 18.7 points per contest (18th in the FBS), which is quite impressive for an offensive-oriented league such as the Big 12. In summation, Kansas State’s defense will do enough to disrupt this OU offense and make them one-dimensional.

Moreover, K-State will take away Oklahoma’s seamless ability to generate explosive plays. Lest we also forget that Manhattan is by no means welcoming to visitors. OU has only been on the road once this year, and that was at UCLA against an ailing Bruins. The Wildcat faithful will be a different animal for the Sooners to tackle, as their fan base will be out in droves to support their Wildcats who cannot afford another conference loss if they wish to remain in the Big 12 race. As a result, Oklahoma will have to roll up its sleeves in an inhospitable environment, and I would not expect the Cats to be steamrolled by any means. There are plenty of points to work with here as I envision the Sooners winning this game by two touchdowns at most. Gentlemen, you can get all of my predictions each week by visiting our NFL Football and NCAA Football picks sections.