Week 8 CFB Picks & Predictions: Toledo vs. Northern Illinois

Toledo Rockets (4-2 SU, ATS 2-3)  vs Northern Illinois Huskies (4-2 SU, ATS 3-0-1)
Date: 3:30 EST Saturday, October 19th
Location: Brigham Field at Huskie Stadium, Dekalb, IL
TV: ESPN+
Point Spread: U of T +2.5/NIU -2.5
Money Line: U of T +115/NIU  -139
Over/Under: 43.5

ESPN+ will be covering the week eight matchup between the Toledo Rockets and Northern Illinois Huskies as the game kicks off at 3:30 ET from Brigham Field at Huskie Stadium in Dekalb. Both teams enter this game with a 4-2 record for the season. The over/under line is currently sitting at 43.5 points, and the Huskies are -2.5 point favorites at home. Be sure to catch this one on ESPN+ this Saturday.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

The Toledo Rockets and Northern Illinois Huskies did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the Toledo Rockets have a record of 2-1. The Toledo Rockets also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-0-1. These games averaged a combined total of 44 points per game, leading to an over/under record of 1-2.

Toledo Rockets Recent Form:

Toledo enters Week 8 with a 4-2 record, ranked 79th in our power rankings. They have a 98.4% chance of becoming bowl-eligible and a 19.3% chance of winning the Mid-American. The Rockets are 2-0 at home and 1-2 on the road this season.

Toledo has been favored in four of their six games, going 2-2 as the favorite. Their average scoring margin is +11.3 points, and they are 2-3 against the spread this season.

The over/under line for this week is 43.5 points, while Toledo’s games have averaged a line of 51.6 points. Their over/under record is 4-1, with games averaging 53.3 points.

Toledo’s offense is averaging 32.3 points per game, ranking 32nd in the nation as they head into week 8. They are 75th in our offensive power rankings. Their passing game has been the focal point, averaging 271.5 yards per game on 33.5 attempts. They are 27th in completions, with 21.3 per game, and their passer rating is 107, placing them 32nd. On third downs, they convert 41.7% of the time.

Quarterback Tucker Gleason has thrown for 1,325 yards and has 13 touchdowns with four interceptions. His passer rating is 101, and he has completed 61.6% of his passes. Leading receiver Jerjuan Newton has 31 catches for 517 yards and seven touchdowns. Toledo’s run game has struggled, averaging 113.2 yards per game.

Toledo’s defense, ranked 33rd nationally, is allowing 21 points per game this season. In their recent 30-15 loss to Buffalo, they gave up 30 points, including 242 rushing yards and three touchdowns on the ground, while allowing 127 passing yards.

On average, opposing teams have rushed 34.2 times per game against Toledo, gaining 113.7 yards per game, which ranks 37th in the country. Through the air, Toledo has allowed 234 passing yards per game, ranking 104th nationally, with quarterbacks completing 61.2% of their passes.

Away Injury Report

Northern Illinois Huskies Recent Form:

Northern Illinois enters Week 8 with a 4-2 record, ranked 80th in our power rankings as they prepare to face Toledo. They have a 99% chance of becoming bowl-eligible and an 18.7% chance of winning the Mid-American. The Huskies are 2-1 on the road and 1-0 at home this season.

Against the spread, Northern Illinois is 3-0-1, with a perfect 3-0 record on the road. They’ve been favored in just one game, and their average scoring margin is +9.2 points per game.

The Huskies’ over/under record is 1-3, with an average line of 45 points. This week’s line is set at 43.5, and their games have averaged 43.5 points, with an average margin of -6.6 points against the total.

Northern Illinois has leaned heavily on their rushing attack this season, ranking 8th in the nation with 45.3 rushing attempts per game, and they are 18th in rushing yards, averaging 222.2 yards per game. They are also converting 48.4% of their third-down attempts, which ranks 19th nationally. Gavin Williams leads the team with 409 rushing yards, averaging 4 yards per carry, and he has scored one touchdown.

Overall, the Huskies are averaging 26.3 points per game, placing them 58th in the country, and they are ranked 86th in our offensive power rankings. Quarterback Ethan Hampton has thrown for 932 yards with eight touchdowns and four interceptions, and he has a passer rating of 89. Northern Illinois is 107th in passing yards, averaging 181.3 yards per game. Cam Thompson leads the receiving corps with 164 yards and two touchdowns.

Northern Illinois’ defense has been a strong point this season, ranking 16th nationally by allowing just 17.2 points per game. They’ve given up only 98.5 rushing yards per game, which ranks 19th, and 157.2 passing yards per game, placing them 14th in the country.

In their recent 17-7 win over Bowling Green, the defense allowed just 7 points and 210 total yards. They gave up 112 rushing yards on 33 attempts and 98 passing yards while also forcing an interception.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past ten road matchups, Toledo has an ATS record of 5-5 while averaging 25 per game. The team went 6-4 overall in these games.
• Through their last ten home games, Northern Illinois has an ATS record of just 7-3. However, their overall record was 6-4 while averaging 26 points per game.
• Spanning across their last three games as the betting underdog, the Toledo Rockets have gone 3-0 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 1-2.
• In their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Northern Illinois Huskies have a straight-up record of 6-4 and an ATS mark of 3-6-1.

Free Pick

I see getting Northern Illinois at -2.5 points at home as one of the better plays of week 8, as the Huskies have a big edge on the offensive side of the ball. Look for Northern Illinois to easily take care of business on Saturday afternoon, and I like them to win and cover the spread.

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