Week 7 Picks: Missouri Tigers vs Kentucky Wildcats

Missouri Tigers (5-1 SU, ATS record of 3-2) vs Kentucky Wildcats (5-1 SU, ATS record of 4-1)

Date: Saturday, October 14th

Location: Kroger Field, Lexington, KY

TV: SECN

Point Spread: Mizzu +2.5/Kent -2.5 (Ever wonder who the Best Sportsbooks are?)

Money Line: MO +113/Ken -140

Over/Under: 52.5

The Missouri Tigers and Kentucky Wildcats matchup in an SEC showdown at Kroger Field in Lexington, KY. The over/under for this matchup is currently 52.5 while Kentucky is favored by -2.5 points.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

Kentucky will look to carry over the momentum from last year’s 21-17 win over Missouri. Each team’s offense struggled in the passing game. Kentucky finished with just 170 passing yards, while Missouri ended the game with 143. In terms of overall yardage, Missouri ended with 232, and Kentucky at 252.

Missouri Tigers Recent Form:

Missouri’s overall record dropped to 5-1 after their most recent loss to LSU. The Tigers lost the game by a score of 49-39.

Not only did Missouri lose straight-up in this matchup, but they also lost vs. the spread as 6-point underdogs. Combining for 88 points, the teams exceeded the line of 63.5 points.

In the loss against LSU, quarterback Brady Cook achieved a QB rating of 86.75, completing 30 of 47 passes for 395 yards. Additionally, he contributed two touchdowns to the game.

Missouri’s leading rusher against LSU was Cody Schrader, who along with rushing for 114 yards, he found the end zone three times in his 13 attempts. For the game, Luther Burden III hauled in 11 receptions for a total of 149 yards which led the team.

Missouri’s defense gave up 534 yards of offense vs. LSU. In the passing game, they allowed 259 yards while on the ground they gave up 275 yards. The Tigers’ defense comes into the game with 15 sacks, and ranked 1st in QB hurries. In terms of points allowed, they are giving up 25.5 points per game (89th). When it comes to defending the pass, they are ranked 122nd in the NCAA, allowing an average of 245.7 passing yards per game. Additionally, Missouri’s run defense comes in allowing 107.7 rushing yards per contest.

Away Injury Report

Kentucky Wildcats Recent Form:

Kentucky’s recent loss to Georgia brought their overall record down to 5-1. In the game, the Wildcats suffered a 51-13 defeat.

Not only did Kentucky lose straight-up in this matchup, but they also lost vs. the spread as 15-point underdogs. Combining for 64 points, the teams exceeded the line of 46.5 points.

Quarterback Devin Leary threw for two touchdowns in Kentucky’s loss over Georgia. Overall, he had a passer rating of 80.29 while completing 38.5% of his passes for 128 yards.

Ray Davis carried the ball 15 times vs. Georgia and led the team with 59 yards on the ground and did not run for a touchdown in the game. In the passing game, Dane Key finished with a team-high 65 receiving yards while averaging 21.7 yards per reception.

The Wildcats’ defense finished the game by giving up 608 total yards to Georgia. The team’s run defense allowed 173 yards rushing compared to 435 in the passing game. On defense, Kentucky comes into the game ranked 67th in passing yards per game. Opponents are throwing the ball an average of 36.5 times per contest vs. the Wildcats. Overall, they are giving up 21.2 points per game, which is 74th in college football. Against the run, they are 18th in the NCAA in rushing yards allowed.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• Missouri is 7-3 in their last ten road games against the spread.
• At home, Kentucky has gone 6-4 against the spread in their last ten games.
• Looking back at the last ten times Kentucky went into a game as the underdog, their ATS mark was 6-4.
• Looking back on the last five times Missouri was favored, their ATS record was 3-2.

Free Pick

In a matchup of two 5-1 teams that both dropped their last games, I don’t have a great read on who will win or cover. But, I do feel good about taking the over at 52.5, as both defenses are coming off terrible games and clearly have problems across the board.