Week 2 CFB Picks: Oregon Looks to Rebound Against Boise State

Week two brings us a fun matchup as the Boise State Broncos travel to Eugene for a battle against the Oregon Ducks. There is some change going on with both teams, as Boise State had to replace some key pieces under head coach Spencer Danielson, who took over last season for deposed Andy Avalos after an uncharacteristic season for the Broncos. Danielson had them playing well to end the season, also getting off to a fast start with 56 points in a win over Georgia Southern in week one. Meanwhile, Oregon head coach Dan Lanning leads the Ducks, winners of 12 games and the Fiesta Bowl last season, into a new era as they join the Big Ten. Week one produced a win, albeit a flaccid one, as they beat Idaho, 24-14, as massive 49-point underdogs. Which team can deliver a better performance and get us the cover on Saturday? Let’s break it down!

Difficult Spread

You got the giant point-spread and while there’s ammo for both sides of this bet, there’s also enough things to make it a tough bet to place, regardless of the pick itself. Oregon has to be happy with the debut of QB Dillon Gabriel, the former Oklahoma and UCF starter. He’s a veteran presence, and while he has big shoes to fill with the departed Bo Nix, his showing in game one of 41 completions and 380 yards, along with two TDs, was good enough. We saw an immediate connection with WR Tez Johnson, who caught both TD passes. Established contributor RB Jordan James was also key in the win. It’s still a lot of offense for a mere 24 points of scoring, as penalties, unfinished drives, and a lack of explosive plays undermined their success. But while it’s alarming to be in such a struggle with Idaho, it was still game one with a new QB, so let’s not draw too many conclusions from that.

For Boise, it’s not going to be easy to get behind a team now playing Oregon in Eugene a week after giving up 45 points to Georgia Southern. I’d imagine this Oregon offense wants to shake off last week’s showing and put forth something better this week, and this Boise “D” better hang on to their hats. It was a bummer that Taylen Green flew the coup to Arkansas, but QB Maddux Madsen is a capable hand, this being his third year in the program where he has seen some work. His game one showing saw him mostly accurate, despite one pick, but they really didn’t need him or much from the Boise passing game, with Ashton Jeanty having an absolutely silly performance with 267 yards on the ground and 6 TD runs. Obviously, playing Oregon on the road is a little different than laying it on thick against Georgia Southern, but they are still a dangerous underdog with an equalizing back who can take over a game.

What Boise and Oregon Are Trying to Do

Boise needs to get Jeanty untracked early. We saw what he could do with his legs, but let’s not forget how dynamic he is overall, being able to serve as a dangerous pass-catcher, as well. One of the reasons Madsen won the job was because of his familiarity with the system and how he’s able to act quickly, something Boise hopes will mitigate some of the deficits they face up-front against this Oregon defense. But for this thing to work on offense, they need some early-down success with Jeanty to help take the pressure off Madsen on third down.

I’d look for Oregon to prepare for this and stack the box a little in an effort to curtail Jeanty, the key to their whole offense. They have other weapons, but defensively, the route for Oregon is simple—put a crimp in Jeanty and ask Madsen to beat you with his arm, a far-more dicey proposition against this good Oregon secondary. And on the other side of the ball, I’d look for Oregon to play like they have something to prove on offense. That line needs to pick up their form, as struggling against Idaho wasn’t a good look. Granted, with Nix gone, some things are going to change, but we saw a far more conservative passing outlook with a lot of short stuff. And sure, with Nix and guys like Troy Franklin gone, maybe this offense is going to be less-vertical, but as we saw in week one, when you need to cover giant numbers like this, getting downfield on pass-plays goes a long way.

Questions

After seeing Boise’s defense start the season so poorly, with their secondary looking ragged, will Oregon look to open things up a bit aerially? Just from a basic standpoint, how much can you expect from the Boise defense in this spot? Should we not take one-week windows too much to heart when breaking down this game? Boise is actually solid in certain aspects of their defense, namely their front seven. Can they maybe do some damage against an Oregon O-line that looked to be struggling in pass protection in week one?

Lay the Number on the Home Favorite

I’d expect Oregon to look more themselves this week. Last week was not good and I look for them to atone. Oregon has a lot of talent at the receiver position that will have the Boise “D” in some trouble. You’d think that Oregon has enough personnel on “D” to hone in on Jeanty and cut into his production in a major way. In a weird way, maybe struggling last week sets up better this week for the Ducks, as they now have an agenda to get this whole thing running smoother. Combine that with some different matchup components that don’t seem to shake out very well for the Broncos and I’m inclined to lay the points on the Ducks. I’m taking Oregon in this one.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Oregon Ducks minus 19 points.