Week 12 NCAAF: Iowa State vs Texas – Expert Betting Forecast

Texas Longhorns (9-1 SU, 4-5-1 ATS) at Iowa State Cyclones (6-4, 6-4), 11/18/23

Week 12

When: 8 pm ET Saturday, Nov. 18

Where: Jack Trice Stadium

TV: Fox

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Tex -7.5/ISU +7.5

Money line: Horns -300/Iowa St. +240

Over/under: 47.5

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Texas leads the Big 12 Conference, but nothings been decided yet heading into this battle with Iowa State on Saturday night in Ames.

The Longhorns are a game up on four teams, including the Cyclones, with two games to play. And Texas remains in the hunt for a spot in the College Football Playoff.

But Iowa State is among the few Big 12 teams to give the ‘Horns problems over recent seasons.

NCAAF Betting Odds

The Week 12 college football betting market opened Texas as a nine-point favorite for Saturday night, with an over/under of right around 48. Early betting action dipped that spread to 7.5.

According to Sagarins CFB ratings at Sagarin.com, the line on this game should be 7.5.

Texas-Iowa State Betting Preview

The Longhorns grabbed the outright lead in the Big 12 Conference last week by holding off Texas Christian 29-26. Texas, favored by 13 points, led 26-6 at the half and 29-13 late. But the ‘Horns let the Frogs score twice in the last six minutes, held on to win but pissed away the cover.

With Quinn Ewers back at QB, Texas produced 482 yards of offense. And while the defense gave up 390 yards of TCU offense, the vast majority of that came in prevent mode.

The Longhorns are living a bit dangerously as of late. Four games ago, they needed a late touchdown to beat Houston 31-24. Two games ago, they outlasted Kansas State in overtime 33-30.

Texas is also only 1-3-1 ATS its last five times out.

But at 6-1 in conference play, the Longhorns lead the Big 12 by one game over four teams, including Iowa State, with two games to play. And at 9-1 overall, the ‘Horns remain in the running for a spot in the upcoming CFP.

Meanwhile, the Cyclones bounced back from a tough loss to Kansas two weeks ago to beat BYU last Saturday 45-13. Iowa State, favored by eight points on the road, scored the first 10 points of the game, led 31-7 at the half, and later added a couple of long scores to complete the blow-out.

The Cyclones out-gained the Cougars 443-318, ran the ball for 234 yards, and won the turnover battle 3-0.

Iowa State started 2-3 this season, then won three games in a row, then lost at home to Kansas 28-21.

At 5-2 in conference play, ISU is part of that four-way tie for second place in the Big 12. The Cyclones already own a loss to Oklahoma, but they also own a victory over Oklahoma State and play at Kansas State next week.

With a couple of wins and a little help from elsewhere, Iowa State could still make the Big 12 championship game.

On the injury front, Texas lost leading rusher Jonathan Brooks last week for the season to a knee injury.

Common Opponents

These two teams have played five common opponents this season; Baylor, BYU, Kansas, Oklahoma, and TCU. Texas played those foes to 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS, and +147 yards per game, Iowa State to 3-2 both SU and ATS but -5 YPG.

Texas-Iowa State Recent History

The Cyclones are 3-1 both SU and ATS over the last four meetings with the Longhorns. Last year in Austin Texas won 24-21 but Iowa State easily covered at +16.

College Football Betting Trends

Iowa State is 11-5 ATS as a home dog under Coach Campbell.

Totals Report

The Unders are 7-3 in Longhorns games this season, which are averaging 52 total points.

The Unders are 6-4 in Cyclones games, which are averaging 46 points.

The Unders are 8-0 over the last eight meetings between these teams.

Free College Football Betting Pick

Texas owns a significant advantage in the offensive comparison, even with some recent injuries. The starting QB is back, and theyve got people to replace Brooks. The Longhorns are also better against the run. Also, Texas owns the better performance against common opponents. And the spread moved in a good direction. We like the ‘Horns minus the points.