Washington State vs. San Jose State: Can the Cougars Cover the Spread?

Friday night’s play:

Washington State (wait to buy)

I was in Washington State once, waiting for attorneys to finish the paperwork required to get me across the border to do some sports handicapping and writing work in Vancouver, BC.
I stayed in Bellingham, right by the border. I was looking for a place to go jogging and found a nice lake surrounded by mountains, with a scenic jogging trail around it.
I noticed other joggers and hikers carrying staffs. So I asked an old guy, “Hey, I’m from New Jersey. We only have deer, squirrels, and rabbits. I notice a lot of people here carry long sticks. Are there any critters around here I should be aware of?”
He said, “Do you know the nickname of our Washington State football team?”
“Yeah,” I said, “the Cougars.”
He looked at me and said, “Well, there’s a good reason for that.”
And he walked away.

But I digress.

Today’s article is kind of technical, intended for handicappers and/or those trying to learn how to handicap.
(If you just want my pick and reasons, skip to the end of the article.)
It’s not a fun read today. Sorry, but it’s necessary (I’ll make up for it by making fun of someone in my next article.)

I’m going to cover some basics in case anyone’s new here.
I have my own way of ‘capping games, unique ways that I’m sure no one else uses.
For college football I have two methods for choosing sides to bet on, both based on identifying teams as the WF (Wrong Fav) and I have three methods for identifying totals to bet on.
Within those five handicapping methods, I have subsets based on factors such as whether a team’s at home or on the road, point spread differentials, and when I get a match (both methods have the same team qualify.)
I assign names for each of the plays, for charting/record keeping purposes and so when I talk about them in my articles I have a way to identify them (see the picture that accompanies this post.)

WF1 and WF2 are the two systems for sides. To differentiate between the three different systems for picking totals, I’ll use NP, T1, and HC.

I chose NP for my best play because that’s what I called it four years ago, the first year I started using it.
It’s 13-5, 72% this season, 130-79, 62%, the past four seasons plus this year (and pardon the back patting but 62% on a sample of over 200 plays is f****** amazing!)

NP stood for New Play because it was new at the time.
I need something to refer to it by this year since I’m sharing the picks publicly again. I’m sticking with NP, not for New Play but in honor of my mom. I lost her earlier this year.
NP are her initials, Nancy Palermo.
(Miss you.)

And now to get even a little more technical, re: subsets.
Last week’s TCU play was on a subset I’ll detail once again:
“When WF2 says the wrong team is the Fav and WF1 says the correct team is the Fav AND WF1’s point spread is a TD or more than WF2’s number on the game – take the WF1 team.”
Why?
Because WF2 has a record of 3-6 in this spot, a 67% Fade.”

(It’s also 2-6, a 75% Fade in the WNBA. And it’s 0-2 in the NFL, where I used it for a W on the Chargers last week. That’s a combined 5 -14, a 73% Fade. It looks like I just may have found a handicapping system that works across multiple sports. At least it is right now, and I’m looking forward to seeing if it continues.

In my logbook, these plays are identified with an asterisk next to the game. I need a way to identify them in my articles and in the forum. I don’t want to call it “The Asterisk Play’ so I’ll just call it A1.

Stick with me just a little bit longer, I promise it’ll be worth it in the end.

I have another subset, based on point spread differentials.
Again, it sounds a little complicated, but it’s really simple:
When WF2 has a point spread differential of 20 points or more than the actual game spread, the record is 6-17, a 74% Fade.
When WF2 has a point spread differential of 30 or more than the actual number on the game it has a record of 2-7, a 77% Fade.

Example – WF2 says the correct spread should be Team A -15. The book’s line is Team B -15. That’s a 30 point differential between the two. I’ll call this play D30.

So why all this technical jargon and explanation of the way I handicap?

Because of this week’s play.WF2 says Washington State is the Wrong Fav. WF1 has Wash State as the correct Fav AND has a line that’s more than seven points higher than WF2.
In other words, an A1 play, 67%.
AND . . . the point spread differential between WF2 and the actual number is more than 30.
In other words, a D30 play, a 77% Fade.

The only reason I’m not making this my second investment size bet of the season is because it’s a Friday night game, which adds an additional factor to ‘capping it because college teams are used to playing on Saturdays, and I have no data on weekday games for the systems this game qualifies for.

Was it worth your time to read through this semi-technical jargon?
We’ll find out Friday night.

When to Buy Recommendation:

The line opened at Wash St -14.
Tuesday morning, it dropped to -13, then -12, and now sits at -11′.
I checked for injury reports and didn’t see anything, so money coming in on San Jose State must be causing the line to drop.

Both teams are at 3-0, but I don’t see a single quality win for the Spartans.
One W came against FCS Sacramento State and the other two came against Air Force and Kennesaw State, both near the bottom in Massey’s FBS rankings (AF 93, KS 132.)
The Cougars also beat an FCS team in their season opener, but their next two wins came against quality opponents: Texas Tech (ranked 49) and Washington (ranked 28).

They’re both 3-0, but the Cougars are clearly the much better team and are at home, which tells me there’ll be a late buyback from players who took the Spartans at the opening +14. I might as well wait to see if I can get the hook of the -11.

As always, I’ll update my number in the PredictEm forum.
I’ll also have a couple more picks in the forum (3-1 in the forum last, 6-2 overall.) The picks will be from both of the systems I detailed above for the Washington State pick, as well as, hopefully, more Under picks from the NP system (2-0 in the forum with those picks last week, 13-5 overall.)

College football
Recap: 1-1
Record: 6-2 (including investment plays, 1-0)

Review: Hit with TCU in a game that showed the importance of when to buy a line. The line on this game ranged between TCU -2′ to UCF -2′.
I got it at TCU +2.
UCF won by one.
The other game (Aub Under) was posted as part of my system for picking Unders but as noted in my update in the forum the numbers changed and the game didn’t qualify. Counts on my record but not on the record for that play.

Good luck with your plays this week.