Expert CFB Picks: Huskies vs. Scarlet Knights, Demon Deacons vs. Ragin’ Cajuns

Recap: 2-1
Record: 8-3
Review: Lost Friday night with Washington State, but the NP under went 2-0 on Saturday for another profitable week. (2-0 in forum plays last week, 7-2 overall now, combined 15-5, 75% homepage columns and forum.)

This week’s plays:

Wash +3 (Friday) (IF bet)
W. Forest -3 (Saturday)Before I get to my analysis and reasonings for taking the Huskies and Demons, I’ll answer a question I get asked a lot:
Yes, I own a computer.

So what’s with the log books and different color pens seen in the pictures that sometimes accompany my articles?
Why not use a database on my laptop?
It’s a simple matter of preference.
I like using spiral notebooks and different colored pens.
I enjoy spending the morning sitting poolside with a cup of green tea, my log books, and different colored pens, leisurely dropping grapes into my mouth while handicapping the day’s games.
Somehow, a laptop computer just doesn’t fit into this picture.

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Now, on to this week’s plays.
Using a weekday pick didn’t work out for me last Friday when I took Washington State. I’m hoping that this Friday, using another team from the Serial Killer State (says so right on their license plate) will serve me better. I’m taking the Washington Huskies plus the FG against the Scarlet Knights of Rutgers.

Though I grew up in Piscataway (“lived there” may be more to the point, some say I still haven’t grown up) I feel no disloyalty betting against Rutgers. It’s not because I had a home town team with a weak, pansy name like the Scarlet Knights, it’s just that I don’t root for any of my home teams. Not Rutgers, the Giants, the Mets, the Jets, and certainly not the Stankees (Oriole fan here.)

When people ask me, “Who’s your favorite team?” I give them the only answer a sports better should give – “My favorite team is the one I have my money on today. Unless they lose, in which case they’re assholes.”

I’m particularly not a fan of Rutgers this season. I used to like head coach Greg Schiano. He bought success and respect to the program in his first stint as head coach.
But in the opening game of this season, I saw something I didn’t like.
Schiano, up 38-7 with just SIX seconds left on the clock, punched in another touchdown instead of taking a knee.
This is a dick move.
And any head coach who does it has no class.
(Unless that last touchdown covers the spread for me or pushes the total Over for me, in which case it’s a totally righteous play call.)

But my dislike for Schiano is not why I bet the Huskies. There have been four times this season that both of my WF (Wrong Fav) systems have given me a match, where both chose the same team.
The record is 4-1.

This week, two teams qualify, Washington and BYU.
One game is Friday night; the other is Saturday morning. Here’s the betting strategy on how I’m going to play this one. The record for when I have a match is 4-1. Two games qualify this week, so that means it will go 2-0, 1-1, or 0-2.
With a 4-1 record, I’m betting that 0-2 is the most unlikely scenario, so I’m going to take the Friday night game as my first pick.
If it wins, I’ll bank the unit and not play the Saturday spot.
If the Friday spot loses, I’ll take the Saturday morning game and look to get even. It’s a small data sample at only five games, but the odds say 2-0 or 1-1 have a higher percentage of coming in than 0-2, so that’s how I’ll play it.

Looking at my logbook and all the different methods I use to ‘cap the games, I see a few that are paying dividends.

The NP Under spot went 2-0 last week and is now 15-5, a very solid 75% with 20 games charted.
(Today my handicapping time will be spent running all the games on this week’s card through this method for coming up with Unders, and hopefully will have at least one play for my next column.)

T1 Unders are currently at 5-2, and four games qualify this week. (I’ll share them in the forum.)

WF1 is 8-5 overall, 8-3 for road teams (like Washington on Friday night and Baylor on Saturday morning.)
Two other games qualify this week, Ok State and Charlotte. I’m not sure about using Ok State, but I may add Charlotte as a forum play because Rice pretty much sucks.
Check the PredictEm forum for updates.

D25 is at 8 -19, another solid Fade at 70% with a good size data sample of 27 games.

D30 is at 3-8, a 72% Fade.
(If you want more info on these different types of plays, check last week’s college football column.)

And D25 is where I come into a bit of a problem with this week’s play on Washington.
The Huskies qualify for it.
So I’ve got a game that has conflicting trends, which would normally cancel each other out; no play.
WF1 is 8-3 for Rd teams, and when I get a match between WF1 and WF2, the record is 4-1.
Conflicting with those two systems, I have WF2 at 15-17 for Rd teams, and D25 which is 8-19.
Two systems on one side, two on the other. They cancel each other out but I’m going with Washington anyway.
Sometimes, you just feel like tempting the Fates.
And sometimes you just feel like sticking it to Rutgers for all those game day traffic jam you got stuck in over the years while trying to get to Piscataway from New Brunswick.

For my other play, I’m Fading La-Laf and taking W.Forest.
This game is also from D25, 8-19, 70%.
The Ragin’ Cajuns are 2-1 and the Demon Deacons are 1-2, but Wake Forest has faced much tougher competition. Yes, they lost their last game by 34 points but that was to Kiffin and the Rebs. Losing to that group of assassins by just 34 points is almost like a badge of honor.
La-Laf’s two wins came against Grambling and Kennesaw.
Color me unimpressed.
The only FBS opponent they faced was Tulane and they got their butts kicked 41-33. Just like they’re going to get their butts kicked this week.

When to Buy Recommendations:

I doubt late money comes in on the Fav on Friday night, so I already bought Washington and the FG.
I don’t see the Wake line getting any better either, if anything it’ll move against me, so I already bought that one too.

This week’s play(s):
Wash +3, an IF bet.
If Washington wins, bank it.
If Washington loses, take BYU +3.
W Forest -3