Washington Huskies vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights Free Pick ATS

Washington Huskies (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS)

NCAA Football Week 5

Date/Time: Friday, September 27, 2024 at 8PM EDT

Where: SHI Stadium, Piscataway, New Jersey

TV: Fox

The Washington Huskies come to Piscataway for a Friday night Big Ten special with the Rutgers Scarlet Knights. We’re getting to that point in the season where the conference realignments are really giving us some unfamiliar matchups. Nobody, including Washington, is used to the Huskies being in New Jersey this time of the season. Still, in their Big Ten Conference debut on Saturday, the Huskies got a nice 24-5 win over Northwestern, helping put some distance between Washington and their Apple Bowl loss to Washington State the prior week. For Rutgers, things have gone well in the fifth year of head coach Greg Schiano’s second tenure with the Scarlet Knights. After two easier wins to begin the year, Rutgers beat Virginia Tech as small dogs on the road Saturday, 26-23. Who should we get behind on Friday?

Challenges for Washington this Week

I think last week we saw the flip side of what might be at play this week, where deposed former Pac-12 teams like Washington face teams they seldom if ever play. When at home, they get the benefit of a team being totally out of their realm, but on the road, you’re going to see these spots—foreign and long road games where a team is completely out of its element. Northwestern looked out of sorts last week in Seattle, and we could see a young Washington team feeling it with the long haul to Jersey.

Topping it off is that Washington can’t be sure they’re going to see the same mediocre Rutgers team that is usually in place in Piscataway. The Virginia Tech win on the road carries some weight, but it’s pretty thin outside of that, with rollicking landslide wins over Howard and Akron. Washington had it easy with wins over Eastern Washington and Weber State, but with the struggle against Washington State and the conclusive win over Northwestern in conference play, they might be a little more battle-tempered than the Scarlet Knights. Still, having one extra game and taking to the road across the country on the short week might not be of much help on Friday.

What Rutgers Will Bring to the Table Friday

After their first two easy wins of the season, Rutgers got the jump on the Hokies last week, taking a 23-7 lead into the 4th quarter. Virginia Tech responded, eventually tying the game late before a final drive by QB Athan Kaliakmanis set them up for a late-game field goal to seal it. The former Minnesota starter has been pretty good, with 6 TD throws against just one pick. Running back Kyle Monangai looks to be on his way to another big season with 457 yards on the ground and five touchdowns. If Kaliakmanis can extract a little more out of this Scarlet Knights aerial game, this could be a nifty little offense.

So far this season, the Scarlet Knights’ defense has played 12 quarters. It’s hard to take a team to task when it was only the last one of those 12 where they showed any pronounced weakness. And some of that lack of a pass-rush we had been seeing really resonated last week and could continue to be an issue. To rack up four sacks so far against the lines they’ve faced is discouraging. We also saw Virginia Tech starting to run over this Rutgers’ defensive front a little bit last week.

Angles for Washington

After a few slower games for Washington RB Jonah Coleman the last two weeks, I’d suspect this is a spot where Washington and head coach Jedd Fisch want to apply a large dose of their lead back, who should be able to do some damage in this spot against this Rutgers front. It’s still not their only option, with QB Will Rogers having found his footing, having thrown for 8 TD passes and no picks. Giles Jackson and Denzel Boston, who was big last week, are his two main targets. After facing Howard, Akron, and then a not-so-great Virginia Tech offense where they were holding on to their hats at the end, will even a heavily depreciated and rebuilding Washington team in a state of flux be too much?

It’s not just the variety of talent on offense that should concern the Scarlet Knights. The quality of player on the other side of the ball might be a bit out of their domain, as well. While not being the reliable factory of defensive back talent they were a short time ago, Washington still has strong talent back there, with a lot of beef up front that has done a nice job getting to the opposing quarterback this season. Granted, there hasn’t been anything about the Rutgers O-line that has been particularly bad this season, but that could be a result of who they played, with things having a chance of looking different this week.

Take the Small Road Dog

It is clear that this will not be a vintage Washington team. And this spot is in many ways terrifying for a Washington backer, with the vision of the Huskies playing on this field being an image that doesn’t quite hit the eye right. And even if Rutgers has been made to look a little better than they are, perhaps, it’s still a good start for a team that has improved. Even with a lot of pieces on the Washington sideline not being proven, I still perceive enough of a talent differential to justify Washington as a small dog. I’m going with the Huskies in this one.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Washington Huskies plus 3 points.